Outcome for Christmas over Germany

Ok, here's the outcome:

First off, what I saw happen.
I saw two very large and very beautiful groups of bombers, both well formed, heading to their targets. They both had good fighter cover that was maintaining appropriate positions. The group attacking the south target came under heavy attack by the defenders, with the fighter escort doing an excellent job initially of keeping the marauding German fighters away from their big friends. This was a tall order, as there were planes everywhere, and the only thing that I could tell for sure was the direction of the bomber's travel. Inevitably, the fighter escort eventually fell behind their package due to damage or losing position in action, and the bombers plodded on relatively alone. There were still a great many of them, and it seemed they were destined to make a good attack on their target.

Then the second wave hit. Largely unprotected, save only for their own defensive fire, the bombers were a ripe target, and the Germans made good on their advantage. The inbound bombers were popping like zits, and before long there were none left. One bomber actually made it to the release point, but dropped with no effect on target. An ignoble end to what was once a beautiful grouping of airplanes.

Much the same thing happened to the attack on the north target, except there wasn't as heavy of a second wave, and some of the bombers got through with good damage caused to the target. What followed was a mini-sitzkrieg as the Germans remained vigilant and the Americans rallied for another attack.

The second attack of the Americans focused on the undamaged south target. It was a smaller attack this time, but it had far fewer defenders to contend with. This attack pushed through and did immense damage to the south target which, had it been a factory or other production facility, would have knocked it out of commission for some considerable time.

The Breakdown:

I'm going to count this one up in terms of losses to each side.

The Americans lost:
65 bombers = 650 crew
48 fighters = 48 crew

The losses in crew do not reflect any who may have bailed out or survived a ditching. Many of those who successfully hit the silk would probably have survived, and would have been returned to action had they landed in friendly territory, and possibly also if they landed in enemy territory and managed to make it back to their own lines. Many would have also been captured, and some even killed, either by wounds or in scuffles on the ground.

This is a great deal of loss, especially on one mission. The annihilation of the first southern attack represents the complete destruction of an entire unit, the reconstitution of which would require significant expenditure of time, energy and material above the obvious need for new aircrews to be trained, new aircraft to be produced, and all of them to be brought to the fighting theater.

The Germans lost:
51 fighters = 51 crew
14 110s = 28 crew
141 objects destroyed on the ground

The Germans lost far fewer aircraft, and a less than a tenth of the aircrew losses, but given the state of Germany at the time this loss is proportionally considerable. By December 1944, the Luftwaffe was extremely hard pressed to field serviceable aircraft, and even more desperate to put trained pilots in them. Experienced pilots were worth their weight, as well as the weight of their aircraft, in gold, and fewer of them remained every day. To be historically accurate, this scenario would have been balanced with far less defenders, as the Germans simply couldn't put up that many sorties at this time in the war. The numbers and carnage here probably better represent a mid 1943 bomber mission before the arrival of effective long range escort.

The major loss the Germans suffered was the damage to their ground facilities. They are represented by cities on our map, but I'm going to call them factories for the sake of avoiding moral issues associated with attacks on massed population centers. If these were factories, almost 75% of the aggregate target would have been destroyed, and the south facility was almost completely knocked out of commission. Whatever vital war supplies were being produced here, let’s say sauerkraut, would have been set back in a bad way. This is not something the Germans could consider an acceptable loss at this stage of the war.

The Final Outcome:

The final outcome of this event would have to be called a draw.

Both sides dealt heavy damage to each other. Both, in a way, achieved their objectives. What this one mission represents is only a single day in a long war of attrition that was taking place in the skies over Western Europe. If extrapolated out across the entirety of the air war, the losses of both sides would have proven unsustainable. There was a time closer to the beginning of the daylight bombing campaign when heavy losses raised serious questions of sustainability, and the whole endeavor was under consideration for abandonment.

Fortunately for the Americans, and to the peril of the Germans, longer range fighter escort became increasingly more efficient. As German losses of planes, pilots and production stacked up, their fighter defenses became increasingly outmatched. This tipped the scales in favor of the Allied bombing campaign, allowing them to continue to devastate German industry.