I thought T-Dawg was next in line to die because he hasn't had much of a part in season 2, didn't expect it to be Dale.
Nah, they still have Merle floating around out there somewhere. They have to keep T-Dawg around for Merle's eventual return. I think that they are probably going to develop the Daryl (Darrel sp?) character more before we see a return of Merle.
Here's how I see it going down. Daryl will continue to become more and more important with the group now that Shane is gone. Just when you think that he is finally a full participating member of the group, instead of the useful outsider he is now, we will see the return of Merle.
Then we'll have new conflicts. Merle and T-Dawg, for obvious reasons. Although it wouldn't surprise me if the first time we Merle again is right after somebody puts a bullet in the back of T-Dawg's head, Merle then steps out of the shadows with a smoking gun. T-Dawg quite possibly will die when Merle returns, one way or another, but probably by getting chained by Merle somewhere where zombies can get him. Merle and Daryl, as Daryl tries to get Merle to see that the group is good and that his standing with the group is not a betrayal of Merle. And... Daryl and Daryl as he wrestles with how he fits with the group and what his relationship is with his brother, where his true loyalties lie.
No matter how it happens, for some reason, the group will need something from Merle when they see him again. Bank on that.