Author Topic: Economy poised for growth again in 2004  (Read 122 times)

Offline Ripsnort

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Economy poised for growth again in 2004
« on: December 18, 2003, 11:18:30 AM »
As the ecomonic news continues to come in droves, so continues the cresendo's of "Where are the WMD's?" by the left, and indictor of desperation and discontent driven by hate. :)

Quote
Leading indicators rose in November, suggesting that the economy is poised for growth in the new year.

Separately, jobless claims fell more sharply than expected last week, offering a fresh sign that the labor market is stabilizing, albeit slowly.

The Conference Board reported Thursday its index of leading indicators rose 0.3% to 114.2 in November. That followed a revised 0.5% gain in October. The index was equal to 100 in 1996.

The gain was on target with economists' forecasts and pointed to solid growth in the next six months. "While the initial strength came from highly accommodative monetary and fiscal policies, it has broadened out to include improving labor markets and factory activity," wrote Steven Wood, chief economist at Insight Economics, in a note to clients. "This increases the probability that the expansion will become self-sustaining."

The coincident-indicator index, which tracks current conditions, climbed 0.2%, while the composite index of lagging indicators dropped 0.3%.

The data point to post-holiday strength, said Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein, in a press release. "The lone note of caution is that although the path is up, it has been bumpy and will remain so in the new year."

Six of the 10 indicators making up the overall leading-indicators index rose. The biggest contributors to the month's gain were improving weekly jobless claims and consumer confidence. Manufacturing hours were also on the rise. The biggest negatives for the month were building permits and money supply.

The Conference Board is a nonprofit research and business-membership group that computes the composite indexes from the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Meanwhile, the number of workers filing first-time applications for unemployment benefits dropped by 22,000 to 353,000 in the week ended Saturday, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The total was the lowest since the last week of October. The four-week average, which smooths out weekly fluctuations, sank by 2,250 last week to 361,750.

Economists had expected a more modest decline of 8,000 claims, according to a survey by Dow Jones and CNBC.

The data suggest that the rise in claims in the previous two weeks wasn't the beginning of a new trend, John Ryding, chief market economist at Bear Stearns, wrote in a note to clients. "Jobless claims remain consistent with continued job growth, although this report does not yet signal that employment in December has accelerated to the point of robust job growth."

Economists at Lehman Brothers and Insight Economics said last week's decline is consistent with December payroll growth of between 100,000 and 125,000 jobs. The December unemployment report is due out in early January.