No good deed goes unpunished....

[Pei]

Originally posted by Steve
Pei has excellently stated why this "uprising" is occurring.

It is actually a small minority of Shias who are murdering American soldier.

Unfortunately it will snowball if it they continue to defy the CPA. Despite the bad headlines it is much better to put the uprising down quickly rather than let it gain momentum and bring in more mand mor eof the population.  Currently Basra and the south have been mostly non-violent. If that changes the CPA is s real trouble. Ultimately the CPA may have to make more concessions to the older Shi'a clerics to maintain thier goodwill. This has it's own risks as it will upset the other major Iraqi factions (not that the CPA could get any lower int he eyes of the Sunni Arabs but pissing off the Kurds would be very bad right now). Sadr's apparent control of Najaf  is a huge problem. The Tomb of Imam Ali is the most important site in Shi'a Islam and he will gain huge prestige if he can control it. Because of it's importance the CPA cannot be seen to eb attacking it without creating a general war with the Iraqi Shi'a (and possibly bringin in the Iranians as well).  On the more positive sign I'm sure al-Sistani and the other senior SHi'as don't want an upstart like Sadr in control of Najaf.  Related to this the CPA should be making damn sure right now that Karbala is secure as this is the second most important site for the Shi'a (the shrine of Imam al-Hussein). If Sadr  can hold both he will be a very strong position indeed.

[-tronski-]

Al-Sadr was just a minor fringe cleric who has only come to the forefront because the occupying forces shut down his newspaper for it's anti-american views and then arrested a close aid. These actions only increased his support base amongst the young shia's with his ultra Iraqi nationalist/anti-american/anti-saddam views striking a cord amongst them.

I personally believe the senior cleric's will alow him to continue because the eventual heavy handed dealing of this problem will only strengthen their cause, and perhaps they will bring him in once they feel his usefulness has waned.

 Tronsky

[Glasses]

That sadr guy is buying his ticket to hell by means of a hellfire up his   robe wearing ass.