Blair's Day's Almost Up

[Gixer]

Blair's days in office are certinly numbered, with this performance you can be pretty confident that there will be a vote of no confidence against him in the very near future.

And with Blair gone so will Bush's biggest Ally and support for Iraq. Good job I say, the Poodle never should of gone against public opinon on such a big issue as Iraq and WMD"s.


...-Gixer


Tony Blair is counting the political cost of the war in Iraq following Labour's hammering in the local council elections.

The Prime Minister appealed to his party to hold its nerve after it crashed to third place behind the Liberal Democrats in the popular vote.

It is believed to be the worst performance by a governing party in a midterm election.

A jubilant Conservative leader Michael Howard said that the results had given the Tories a platform to go on and take power in the next general election.

However, Labour claimed that the Conservatives had failed to make a decisive electoral breakthrough.

As senior Labour figures rallied round to insist that his leadership was not under threat, Mr Blair, in Washington for the funeral of Ronald Reagan, said Labour could bounce back.

He said that a "shadow" had been cast over the elections by the war in Iraq.

"What we have got to do is to hold our nerve and see it through. Of course it's a difficult time, and these things happen to governments, but the basic commitments we have made we are delivering," he said.

The Prime Minister received powerful support from Chancellor Gordon Brown, seen by many Labour MPs as the obvious successor if Mr Blair's position became untenable.

Mr Brown said that he was happy with the job that he was doing and that Mr Blair would lead the party into the general election.

[lada]

some Brits already mentioned here on BBS that its not possible for criminals to be elected again in UK.

Im will be happy if they were right.

[beet1e]

Yes, the poll results were a disaster for Labour, with the Iraq issue laid firmly at Tony Blair's door. Labour is now in third place - the worst showing for any Labour government ever.

I am hopeful that Tony Blair does stay on as leader, as he is now clearly an electoral liability, and his continued leadership will cause divisions within the party and hopefully lead to its demise. If Gordon Brown were to become leader, it could be seen as a new dawn, and many voters currently disillusioned with Labour might be tempted to vote Labour again to give the party another chance under its new leader.

But the Tories still have some way to go before they can be confident of being within striking distance of a General Election victory. If Thursday's voting pattern were to be repeated in a General Election (expected next year) the result would be a hung parliament, with the Tories winning the most seats.

The problem for the Tories is Labour's current record majority of 164 seats in the House of Commons. A swing to the Tories from a majority of that size is almost unprecedented - certainly in my lifetime. I believe the last swing of that magnitude was when Clement Attlee's Labour government, elected in 1945 with a majority of 146, re-elected in 1950 with a majority of 5, was ousted by Churchill in 1951.

My gut feeling is that it will take two elections for the Tories to gain a workable majority. If they end up presiding over a hung parliament, it's going to be a mess, as they will need the support of the other minority parties to be able to pass any new legislation, making a subsequent election inevitable a short time later. Alternatively, if Labour wins, one hopes that their majority will be too small to sustain them in office. That could bring about another election which I believe they would lose - partly because of the fact that by then, Gordon Brown's 2004 borrowing will have to be paid back and taxes will have had to rise. We might then see a 1945/1950/1951 scenario play out.

The other thing that will go against Labour, and work for the Tories, is that Tony Blair is about to sign up to the EU Constitution - something which most Britons do not want, myself included. But at least he's done a U-turn on a referendum.

British General Election Results: 1945 - present

[Replicant]

I think the recent polls show a fair indication of displeasure with the labour government.  However, I think that the General Election would be very different since the mentality of most voters only stick to the major two parties since they think it will be a 'wasted vote'.  You have to remember that these were only local elections and people tend to vote differently.

I've never voted for a major party, I've always voted Independant.

[beet1e]

NEXX - you're definitely right. As Peter Snow demonstrated yesterday, the LibDem vote at mid-term elections is the one that suffers in a General Election, with support leaking away to the other parties - Labour and Conservative in equal measure.


BTW - what happened to Peter Snow's swingometer?

[Jester]

Where's Maggie when you need her?  

She had more "Balls" than the lot of em except for Churchill.

[Vulcan]

Originally posted by lada
some Brits already mentioned here on BBS that its not possible for criminals to be elected again in UK.

Im will be happy if they were right.

Ahh look more bitter and resentful product of the failed communist experiment.

Whats the matter Lada? Pissed off that Saddam won't chucking his subjects in a giant chipper anymore? But don't be sad, theres still plenty of other 3rd world dictators and genocidal maniacs for you to align yourself with

[AKcurly]

Originally posted by Gixer
Blair's days in office are certinly numbered, with this performance you can be pretty confident that there will be a vote of no confidence against him in the very near future.

And with Blair gone so will Bush's biggest Ally and support for Iraq. Good job I say, the Poodle never should of gone against public opinon on such a big issue as Iraq and WMD"s.

Yes, reminiscent of Churchill, isn't it?  Guided his nation safely through a nasty one and they couldn't vote him out quickly enough. What!

curly

[Replicant]

Originally posted by AKcurly
Yes, reminiscent of Churchill, isn't it?  Guided his nation safely through a nasty one and they couldn't vote him out quickly enough. What!

curly

Well, I'm certainly too young to remember that but the opposition were offering a lot more to Great Britain than Churchill was.  Churchill was a great man, leader and defender of Great Britain but politics is a hard world and you can never be sentimental.  The opposition brought in many reforms including the National Health Service which was exactly what Britain needed in the post war years to help nurse Britain back to health.

Incidently, Churchill was voted back in during the early 1950s.

[beet1e]

Originally posted by Gixer
Blair's days in office are certinly numbered, with this performance you can be pretty confident that there will be a vote of no confidence against him in the very near future.

I don't think a vote of no confidence is likely, not given the size of Labour's majority (164) in the House of Commons. Perhaps you meant there might be a leadership challenge from within his own party?

[lada]

Originally posted by Vulcan
Ahh look more bitter and resentful product of the failed communist experiment.

Whats the matter Lada? Pissed off that Saddam won't chucking his subjects in a giant chipper anymore? But don't be sad, theres still plenty of other 3rd world dictators and genocidal maniacs for you to align yourself with

 how were my post related to 3rd world and dictators ?


Blair is just  a lair and Brits are not sheep, end of story.
And we better do not ask about schoolarship in UK and his past statement.



i guess Vulcan will translate my world to something like...
Lada miss SH much and he cry for him 2 hours a day..

[Saurdaukar]

Originally posted by lada

Blair is just  a lair and Brits are not sheep, end of story....

Man... you guys arent still pissed off about that whole 'revolution' thing over here, are you?

Brits arent sheep... now THERES a political platform to run on!

Too bad really... Blair really did a hell of alot for US/UK relations.