Author Topic: CNN/Gallup Poll  (Read 1201 times)

Offline Dead Man Flying

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Re: Re: Re: CNN/Gallup Poll
« Reply #15 on: August 02, 2004, 12:23:43 PM »
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Originally posted by Wotan Undecided voters may just not vote at all. I can't imagine many of them suffering through the entirety of Lieutenant Kerry's speech or watched much of the DNC's pep rally. Is there a poll that separates the truly "undecided" from the "uninformed" or "unconcerned"?
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In the aggregate, uninformed/disinterested voters tend to distribute themselves randomly between both parties.  As such, their votes essentially cancel each other out.  The small core of truely undecided but interested voters makes the difference between success and failure for candidates.

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The poll numbers themselves are of little value as they will rise and fall. The point my post was to contrast the impression of the convention and speeches some of the Kerry supporters on this forum portrayed.
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I think posters here discredit polls too much.  I can assure you that both campaigns take poll results very seriously and follow them with extreme interest despite what they say in public.  Obviously polls vary day to day with some randomness, but if you aggregate all of the polls nationwide over the last six months you should notice particular non-random trends.  However, we do not know if the current "bounce" represents a permanent, long-term change to the polls or merely represents a short-term "spike" that returns to the original level of support over time.

-- Todd/Leviathn
« Last Edit: August 02, 2004, 12:28:49 PM by Dead Man Flying »

Offline Nash

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Re: Re: Re: Re: CNN/Gallup Poll
« Reply #16 on: August 02, 2004, 12:34:46 PM »
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Originally posted by Dead Man Flying
I think posters here discredit polls too much.  


I hope I didn't give you the impression when I said that the national polls are pretty much meaningless. I think polls are a very good indicator. My comment has more to do with an increased sensitivity to the electoral college system of elections.

The national polls would include (just for an example) a 5 point Democrat  bounce in Texas or a 5 point Republican bounce in NY. Both of which are incosequential... unless it's possible to extrapolate this to show what the swing states are doing.

Is it possible? Can national polls be a reasonably good indication of what's going on in the swing states?

Offline Ripsnort

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CNN/Gallup Poll
« Reply #17 on: August 02, 2004, 12:46:12 PM »
I'm still amazed at the Canadians that actually care about OUR politics...its flattering to no extent!  How many total threads about Canadian politicians has the AH OC had since inception? Maybe 3?

Also, this site should be interesting to follow as we wind down and through the election:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Offline Nash

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CNN/Gallup Poll
« Reply #18 on: August 02, 2004, 12:55:11 PM »
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Originally posted by Ripsnort
How many total threads about Canadian politicians has the AH OC had since inception? Maybe 3?[/url]


Because we all know how interested y'all are in talking about anything besides yourselves. These comments make me laugh actually... You b1tch about it, but you wouldn't have it any other way.

Offline Ripsnort

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CNN/Gallup Poll
« Reply #19 on: August 02, 2004, 12:56:50 PM »
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Originally posted by Nash
Because we all know how interested y'all are in talking about anything besides yourselves. These comments make me laugh actually... You b1tch about it, but you wouldn't have it any other way.


I'm not b1itching! I'm flattered! Thank you!  We RULE!