In all seriousness, the "real" campaign begins in several weeks. That is when whatever bounce (if any) Bush receives from the convention decays to its equilibrium level, and we see how successful Republicans were at framing the agenda for the campaign.
Things to consider: Voters retrospectively evaluate incumbents and prospectively evaluate challengers. If Republicans can continue to poll better than Kerry on national security and can keep the campaign focused on Bush's record in that area, I think things go smoothly for them. The new proposals offered by Bush are really just red herrings; they likely won't influence voter evaluations of him.
-- Todd/Leviathn