Let's not forget that the target you're facing has something to do with HOs too.
There are some planes, such as the 190-a8, that meet two conditions condusive to HOs: 1) they have super-strong cannon, and 2) they are so unmanouverable that they have no hope of getting another shot off if ACM starts happening.
In addition to the A8, I have come to consider the following planes to be more likey to try an HO than others (and these are just off the top of my head):
BF-110
Mossie
P47 (when slow and low)
Hurri IIC
N1K1
I don't hold it against the first three planes in this list when their pilots HO, but those last two planes usually have some other choices. I mean, what else are they supposed to do, just sit there and let me shoot them after the first reversal?
-Llama