Author Topic: Kyoto saves the world  (Read 1515 times)

Offline Redwing

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Kyoto saves the world
« Reply #45 on: February 09, 2005, 12:23:15 PM »
Global warming happens as we speak, which is due to a combination of cyclical changes in the earth's circumnavigation of the sun.

Specifically these are:
- eccentricity, the changes in ellipticity of earth's orbit around the sun and the resulting oscillations from more elliptic to less elliptic. More elliptic, earth is farther away from the sun -> cold
Less elliptic -> warm.

- earth's axial tilt ranging from 21.5 to 24.5 degrees.

- precession, which means earth's "wobble" around it's spin axis. Earth wobbles from pointing at polaris (north star) to pointing at the star vega. Tilting towards vega would result in the the northern hemisphere winter and summer solstices coinciding with the aphelion and perihelion, respectively. Therefore the northern hemisphere will experience winter when earth is furthest from the sun and summer when earth is closest to the sun, resulting in greater seasonal contrasts.  At present, the earth is at perihelion very close to the winter solstice.

All these cycles have very long periodicities (23.000 to 100.00 years), but since they overlap each other, sometimes 2 or even all 3 extremes will come together resulting in drastic changes of climate for a couple hundred years.

Also, sunspot activity is vital in climate changes. This activity is also cyclic, with much shorter periodicities of about 11 years per cycle.

Currently the three big cycles mentioned above are making earth move towards a warmer period. Of course, since these cycles are so long, the changes aren't going to be abrupt and of course have been going on for quite some time now. Also, earth's climate system is a very complicated one. So even though we might in general be moving towards a warmer period that might take a couple thousand years, there might as well be "short" intervals of cooling on the way there.

Now what about mankind's impact? As of late (the last hundred years)  there have been measurable changes that can probably be blamed on an increased output of CO2. Of course, every big-scale volcanic eruption emits more CO2 than mankind does in decades. That doesn't make it less of a problem though, since in the past there have been eruptions that did in fact have an impact on climate.
Consequently, even if there's no big-scale eruption during the next hundred years we might still experience climatic changes comparable to those we might have seen if there had been such an eruption.

Freaking out about it won't change a thing though, I'll keep burning oil and stuff as long as I can afford it. It's fun too!

As soon as the next big-scale eruption happens we're going to be in trouble either way... but we'll adopt.

Offline -dead-

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Kyoto saves the world
« Reply #46 on: February 09, 2005, 12:35:49 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Holden McGroin
When one realizes that 110 countries, including China and India have a per capita GDP of less that $5000, and much of the population of the earth use energy for cooking only, much of that with biomass derived fuel, the above fact is not surprising.    



As the USA produces about 22% of the world economy (as measured by GDP) 24% of the CO2 would seem to be expected.
It's a nice warm thought. But it doesn't really pan out does it? Japan should be round about 12% of the pollution were that the case, the EU (western Europe) round about the same as the US as well. But they're not are they?

Japan has about half the population of the US, and about half the GDP but still produces a quarter of the CO2.

The EU has more people living in it than the US and produces more GDP than the US, yet it doesn't produce as much CO2 as the US.
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Offline Mighty1

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Kyoto saves the world
« Reply #47 on: February 09, 2005, 12:56:15 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Silat
I know you are being sarcastic but it is true that removing that tax break would be a very big help...


Taxing the rich will not solve any problem.

You tax them more they take it back from their workers OR find another loop hole and WE end up paying for it. again
I have been reborn a new man!

Notice I never said a better man.

Offline -dead-

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Kyoto saves the world
« Reply #48 on: February 09, 2005, 01:29:09 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by OneWordAnswer
2001?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3996855.stm
I just use the US DoE, because it saves people thinking it's some sinister communist plot to make the US look bad. Can I help it if they're 3 years behind the times? ;)

But yes, I'm sure China's energy use is going up: it's a developing country, ergo it is developing. And given that it has four times the population, we should expect them to surpass US levels.

And that's the problem with Kyoto, but also the point of the whole imbalance thing: you can't stop the development of these countries, and setting them the same levels of emissions reduction makes no real sense and is grossly unfair - there is no way they can develop and keep at or below the levels of their emissions in 1990.

So it's up to the developed nations to reduce their emissions right now and help reduce the emissions of developing nations. They will develop whether the developed nations help them or not, but if the developed nations help them, the development might not kill us all.

And if the US whine and plead that they can't afford to reduce their emissions, then why on earth should anyone else be inclined to? And we'd be back to the old Vonnegut planetary epitaph "we could have saved it but we were too damned cheap and lazy."

So really if we're talking gall it's people who think Kyoto is too expensive for the US and then whine because China says exactly the same thing. Especially given that China hasn't even started producing the level of emissions of the US.
“The FBI has no hard evidence connecting Usama Bin Laden to 9/11.” --  Rex Tomb, Chief of Investigative Publicity for the FBI, June 5, 2006.

Offline lazs2

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« Reply #49 on: February 09, 2005, 02:16:16 PM »
dead... it is not quite as simple as all that... you need to also look at emissions produced vs gross national product.   you will need to create some emissions in order to produce.   I believe the U.S. does pretty well on the emissions vs GNP scale.

lazs

Offline Manedew

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Kyoto saves the world
« Reply #50 on: February 09, 2005, 03:27:54 PM »
any talk about cars is moot ..... they can be powered by other means ... it's how you get that power tho

(forget where i saw basis for this idea ... or i'd credit him/her)

problem is ... people are used to getting thier power off the grid.....payign thier bills and more power from one huge souce.... the power plant.....

Imagine if solar, and wind power technology were mass produced for household levels .... storage would typicaly be required for the single user ..... but if people used this solar or wind power with a grid ... they could sell unused power back to the grid..... Then buy some back later at night in the case of solar-or when the wind dies down in wind power.

It would be a good idea to start trying I think ... like many others....... and pleanty of profit to be made for the power company that sets it up..... ooooooo money .....

the point is  .... we aren't even trying..... and why shouldn't it be up to the goverment to try thing slike this .... they/we paid for the phone network to be laid across the country.  A good investment no?

building such a power grid and promoteing people selling power back into it would be a huge step .......

just a simple idea .. pleanty out there ... but they just sit around collecting oil money, starting wars for oil (IMHO)......


so why not do somethign about it?

I just want to know why we don't try..... in the end there is money to be made by it ....... so whats the big deal.....  guess it's too free of a market for people to control ..... Oil is soooo much easier to control than typical clean power ideas ...

Offline rshubert

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« Reply #51 on: February 09, 2005, 04:26:20 PM »
a lot of alternative energy ideas have been tried, and found wanting.

Wind power is unreliable in most areas, and a major complication would be that when the wind is not available over a large area, where does the power come from?  Shutting down those nasty old power plants is a good idea on the surface, but they at least provide the power we need.  And there is maintenance required on that windmill.  Rotating stuff, exposed to the weather, tends to break.

Passive solar is expensive and impractical in areas that suffer from clouds or that little thing called "winter".

Active solar is so expensive we don't even want to talk about it.

Feeding power back onto the grid is impractical due to the advanced gear needed to synchronize your little home powerplant with the grid.  Unsynchronized?  Draws power from the grid, if it doesn't blow up your Mr. Electricity unit.  I am buying some motor drives with regen modules this week, (the regen module pushe power back onto the line) and the 10 HP model (about 15 amps at 480VAC) costs about $3000 per.  An electrical engineer is needed to set it up to work correctly.  Not something you can pick up at Home Depot.

Altermnative energy systems won't be practical until they are affordable and easy to maintain.

Offline GRUNHERZ

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Kyoto saves the world
« Reply #52 on: February 09, 2005, 04:27:22 PM »
Wind power kills wildlife and must occupy huge areas of land in order to be effectyive. Not to mention it only works well in areas with consitent high speed wind.

Solar power on massive scale would play havoc with the climate as a great deal of sunlight wqould now be reflected back into the atmosphere.

Nuclear is prolly the way to but you environmental nazis prolly dont like it...

Offline Manedew

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Kyoto saves the world
« Reply #53 on: February 09, 2005, 04:34:10 PM »
well duh .. heance why I put it to large oginizations like the goverment ....... we didn't just end up phone lines to nearly everywhere because it was short-run profitable

I by no means said the current grid system could do this .....  it's possible and could be tried..... but like I said pervously,  It should be a govement undertakeing .... promoteing such technologies..... and ya when the wind dies down .. you get power the traditonal ways ..... the point is to CUT DOWN ON EMMISSIONS..... which this would certainly do if implemented on a wide scale ......

and if solar cells were mass produced at that level ... prices would fall.... etc etc ....  

people won't try anything new?

not saying it's the perfect idea .... just that there are pleanty of ideas out there and we aren't even trying.....

===========

so 'black' solar panels reflect light back upwards?  not too sure about that.....:rolleyes:

Offline JB88

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« Reply #54 on: February 09, 2005, 04:36:18 PM »
big drill.

deep hole.

thermal power.
this thread is doomed.
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word.

Offline Sabre

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Kyoto saves the world
« Reply #55 on: February 09, 2005, 04:50:44 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by JB88
big drill.

deep hole.

thermal power.


Until some geologist looking for a government grant whips up a computer model that indicates all those geothermal planets are causing a (potentially) dramatic cooling of the Earth's core.  

"We must bring back the use of carbon-based fuels, before the core is irreversably cooled and we all freeze!"
Sabre
"The urge to save humanity almost always masks a desire to rule it."

Offline Stang

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Kyoto saves the world
« Reply #56 on: February 09, 2005, 05:26:17 PM »
The Day After Tomorrow is really gonna happen!  AHHHHHHH!!!!!!



:D

Offline Thrawn

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Kyoto saves the world
« Reply #57 on: February 09, 2005, 06:08:47 PM »
Global warming is happening, Kyoto is crappy way of dealing with it.


"Earth Gets a Warm Feeling All Over

NASA -- Last year was the fourth warmest year on average for our planet since the late 1800s, according to NASA scientists.

To determine if the Earth is warming or cooling, scientists look at average temperatures. To get an "average" temperature, scientists take the warmest and the coolest temperatures in a day, and calculate the temperature that is exactly in the middle of those high and low values. This provides an average temperature for a day. These average temperatures are then calculated for spots all over the Earth, over an entire year.

Scientists use temperatures taken on land and on surfaces of the oceans. Weather stations provide land measurements, and satellites provide sea surface temperature measurements over the ocean. These data are computed by NASA.

The end result recreates and calculates global temperatures, and helps scientists study climate change. Makiko Sato of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), New York, converted all the data into readable global temperature maps that provided the means to see the warming.

James Hansen of NASA GISS analyzed the data and said that the 2004 average temperature at Earth's surface around the world was 0.48 degrees Celsius or 0.86 Fahrenheit above the average temperature from1951 to 1980.

Globally, 1998 has proven to be the warmest year on record, with 2002 and 2003 coming in second and third, respectively. "There has been a strong warming trend over the past 30 years, a trend that has been shown to be due primarily to increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere," Hansen said.

Global temperatures vary from year to year and place to place, but weather stations and satellite data provide accurate records. By recording them over time, scientists develop a record of the climate, and have been able to see how it's been changing.

Some of the changes in climate are due to short-term factors like large volcanic eruptions that launched tiny particles of sulfuric acid into the upper atmosphere (stratosphere) in 1963, 1982, and 1991. These natural events can change climate for periods of time ranging from months to a few years.

Other natural events, like El Ninos, when warm water spreads over much of the tropical Pacific Ocean, also have large short-term influences on climate. The large spike in global temperature in 1998 was associated with one of the strongest El Ninos of recent centuries, and a weak El Nino contributed to the unusually high 2002-2003 global temperatures.

Even though big climate events like El Nino affect global temperatures, the increasing role of human-made pollutants plays a big part. Scientists, like Hansen, have been working to try and predict how human impacts on our climate will affect the annual world temperature trends in the future.

Hansen also said that now, Earth's surface absorbs more of the Sun's energy than gets reflected back to space. That extra energy, together with the weak El Nino, is expected to make 2005 warmer than the years of 2003 and 2004 and perhaps even warmer than 1998, which had stood out as far hotter than any year in the preceding century.

 Another interesting note is that global warming is now large enough that it is beginning to affect seasons, and make them warmer than before on a more consistent basis.

Compared to the average temperatures from the 1951 to 1980 period, the largest unusually warm areas over all of 2004 were in Alaska, near the Caspian Sea, and over the Antarctic Peninsula. But compared to the previous five years, the United States as a whole was quite cool, particularly during the summer."


http://www.rednova.com/news/display/?id=126207

Offline J_A_B

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Kyoto saves the world
« Reply #58 on: February 09, 2005, 06:25:16 PM »
"Wind power is unreliable in most areas, and a major complication would be that when the wind is not available over a large area, where does the power come from?"


Of course there's also the problem that these exact same envior-freaks would be whining about the thousands of windmills covering every scenic hill.


In the end, a lot of these enviro-nuts just hate humanity, but don't have the guts to admit it.


J_A_B

Offline -dead-

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Kyoto saves the world
« Reply #59 on: February 10, 2005, 01:48:38 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by lazs2
dead... it is not quite as simple as all that... you need to also look at emissions produced vs gross national product.   you will need to create some emissions in order to produce.   I believe the U.S. does pretty well on the emissions vs GNP scale.

lazs
Firstly, GNP counts stuff that's made abroad, whereas the emissions are only counted domestically, so it's essentially a farcical trip into statistics for statistics' sake. So if you count stuff that contributes to pollution elsewhere, but ignore the pollution that the stuff causes, the US looks a lot better. But a ratio of GNP to domestic emissions is essentially a dishonest look at the problem.

And again it doesn't really pan out: Japan has about the same GNP/GNI per capita as the US and yet it produces half as much pollution per capita: Net result the GNP-emission ratio is half the US one. So what are you doing wrong?

And really, when all is said and done it much more simple than you make out, as it all boils down to one measurement: parts per million.

Above a certain level of CO2 ppm, the planet gets uninhabitable: it won't matter a bit who did it or why or what statistics they have to show us they were justified in doing it.
“The FBI has no hard evidence connecting Usama Bin Laden to 9/11.” --  Rex Tomb, Chief of Investigative Publicity for the FBI, June 5, 2006.