Author Topic: US Economy (Read 1268 times)

Thrawn · « **Reply #30 on:** February 27, 2005, 01:17:18 AM »

Toad, that graph doesn't take into account trade debt. The start is also coming of the US economy being in a total war situation.

"OTOH, I'm not quite ready to throw myself into the firery pit over it either. "

Why would you anyway. You have a house (bought and paid for I imagine), some firearms to protect it and harvest meat. I would even bet you have enough land to plant some vegetibles if necessary. What more do you need?

Raider179 · « **Reply #31 on:** February 27, 2005, 02:26:23 AM »

Sorry if I dont understand economics that well but how can our economy be getting better but our debts get larger? Seems if it was getting better the debt would get smaller not bigger.

Monk · « **Reply #32 on:** February 27, 2005, 03:16:28 AM »

Quote

Originally posted by Siaf__csf
I might have to help the US export a bit by buying an american car now that they're dirt cheap.

To bad the new cadillac models seem to have some quality issues..

The new cadys are pretty nice. Dirt cheap in Europe? The 2005 vette runs about 40 something thousand $ in the US. Here in Germany it's starts at 61 thousand something €.

Ya, pump up them prices. Wouldn't want to see to many US cars on the road here.

Thrawn · « **Reply #33 on:** February 27, 2005, 03:22:32 AM »

Quote

Originally posted by Raider179
Sorry if I dont understand economics that well but how can our economy be getting better but our debts get larger? Seems if it was getting better the debt would get smaller not bigger.

The most popular way of measuring economic growth (Gross Domestic Profuct or GDP) is faulty.

GDP = consumer spending (this also includes government spending) + investment (this also includes government investment) + exports - imports

So if the government spent more money, and everything else stayed the same there would be an increase in GDP.

And check out imports, they are subtracted in the equation. What you don't see is that when the comsumers buy them they buy them at a marked up price. So again the GDP goes up because marked up consumer spending would be up.

It's a screwy system that just doesn't effectively take government debt, or trade debt into account. Spending money never made anyone richer, nor does it make countries richer and that's why I don't think consumer spending should be included. Investing makes people and money richer.

Raider179 · « **Reply #34 on:** February 27, 2005, 04:12:25 AM »

Seems to be another case of my accountant is better than yours. lol Either side can make the numbers reflect what they want.

Toad · « **Reply #35 on:** February 27, 2005, 08:39:17 AM »

Well Thrawn, should we be pleased that the economy is reported as growing and the trade gap narrowing or should we be ticked and hope that the economy stops growing and the trade gap widens?

See my point?

None of this control this stuff and this news is somewhat better than it has been and could there could have been worse news.

Rolex · « **Reply #36 on:** February 27, 2005, 08:46:33 AM »

The US economy isn't too bad right now. The debt is sustainable. The issues that need to be addressed for the next generation aren't being addressed yet, though. The next generation will see an aging population (2 people over 60 for every child) and that means a different tax structure. Substantially higher taxes on the working to support the non-working, high medical cost seniors.

Consumer debt, for the most part, is being financed by China and Japan. They are the ones buying your mortgages (Your bank sells your mortages to someone else) and US bonds.That let's Americans buy and charge more goods made in China and Japan, and the profits go back to Asia.

All economics works great when there is population expansion and taxpayer base expansion. It never looks good when you age a population and reduce the working base.

It's quite natural to think things are great now, but the past is never an indicator of the future in economics. Never. There are too many different factors at any one point in time.

The big, scary bugaboo about the future is about the 2007-2010 time frame. That is what Iraq is all about. It's a pre-emptive move to try to avert the biggest threat to the American economy that is squarely staring everyone in the face. It's soooooo scary (

) we don't want to talk about it.

Dago · « **Reply #37 on:** February 27, 2005, 09:07:54 AM »

I blame NAFTA.

dago

Siaf__csf · « **Reply #38 on:** February 27, 2005, 10:17:51 AM »

Monk yeah they're dirt cheap in comparison to what they used to be. The drop of the currency did that.

Naturally all the taxes etc. are going to keep the price nearly double compared to what americans pay for them. Still, cheaper is cheaper if you want one.

Thrawn · « **Reply #39 on:** February 27, 2005, 02:06:28 PM »

Quote

Originally posted by Toad
Well Thrawn, should we be pleased that the economy is reported as growing and the trade gap narrowing or should we be ticked and hope that the economy stops growing and the trade gap widens?

See my point?

Yeah, fair enough.

Tumor · « **Reply #40 on:** February 27, 2005, 04:46:31 PM »

Quote

Originally posted by Thrawn
You're right, there's nothing you can do as an individual to fix the over problem. But you can protect youself (and family if you have one) from the repercussions.

And do what?

I wonder how many people had faith that the government would let something like the great depression happen?

I really don't see how that makes a difference, but FWIW, I'm enlisted in the military, it's not like I'd be out a fortune.

My Grandfather remembers the Great Depression.. Actually, I should say he remembers the time frame. He's got a great line: "We didn't notice the Great Depression, we were already poor."

Stringer · « **Reply #41 on:** February 27, 2005, 05:18:00 PM »

Hey Rolex,

I was waiting for your further detail on what you were hinting was the underlying reason for Iraq.

Did you ever start a seperate thread on that, I'm very interested in reading your thoughts on that.

Gunslinger · « **Reply #42 on:** February 27, 2005, 05:22:19 PM »

Quote

Originally posted by Rolex
The US economy isn't too bad right now. The debt is sustainable. The issues that need to be addressed for the next generation aren't being addressed yet, though. The next generation will see an aging population (2 people over 60 for every child) and that means a different tax structure. Substantially higher taxes on the working to support the non-working, high medical cost seniors.

Consumer debt, for the most part, is being financed by China and Japan. They are the ones buying your mortgages (Your bank sells your mortages to someone else) and US bonds.That let's Americans buy and charge more goods made in China and Japan, and the profits go back to Asia.

All economics works great when there is population expansion and taxpayer base expansion. It never looks good when you age a population and reduce the working base.

It's quite natural to think things are great now, but the past is never an indicator of the future in economics. Never. There are too many different factors at any one point in time.

The big, scary bugaboo about the future is about the 2007-2010 time frame. That is what Iraq is all about. It's a pre-emptive move to try to avert the biggest threat to the American economy that is squarely staring everyone in the face. It's soooooo scary ( ) we don't want to talk about it.

and don't forget the threat on the homefront.

The dreaded baby boombers. These guys are going to start retiring in droves soon and the ones that hold skills of a highly technical nature do not have many replacements readily available.

I remember when I was interviewing for an FAA job I was told the RADAR crew I'd be working with were almost all twice my age and 3/4 of them were retiring in the next 10 years.

I wish I still had it but there was a good article written about the CEO of monster.com about three years ago. He wared that in about 2012 there's going to be a skilled labor shortage that will make the dot com bubble look like a temp agency.

Rolex · « **Reply #43 on:** February 27, 2005, 06:00:21 PM »

Stringer: It isn't easy to explain in just a few paragraphs. It isn't that sophisticated, but several things have to brought together into one picture. I'll put something up and link to it in a few days. I won't take sides whether the action is right or wrong, just show what information was used to make the snapshot of time 5-10 years forward.

I think Harry Truman's words 50 years ago are perfectly suited to today:

"I really look with commiseration over the great body of my fellow citizens who, reading newspapers, live and die in the belief that they have known something of what has been passing in their time."

Thrawn · « **Reply #44 on:** February 27, 2005, 07:05:58 PM »

Quote

Originally posted by Tumor

And do what?

Depends on ones circumstances.

Quote

I really don't see how that makes a difference, but FWIW, I'm enlisted in the military, it's not like I'd be out a fortune.

Well, I think being in the military is great start, it's part of the reason I tried to go that route myself recently. If worse comes to worse the last thing a government is going to get rid of it's military.

If one has the means they can invest in things that will hold it's value even if the USD loses it's value. Such as an education. I'm not talking about degrees or diploma's in business admin, or humanities. But trades that have practical applications. If and when the USD falls drastically the US won't be able to procured the manufactured goods it's been getting from other countries. Manufacturing will increase greatly in the US when that happens over the long term. A crisis is bad for majority of people, but it's also a great opportunity for those that prepare.

You can also help insult yourself and your family is to have some "hard currency". Gold, silver, anything with inherant value that you can hold in your hand.

First thing I would do if possible is get the heck out of an urban environment. Any financial crisis of this scale is going to hurt urban areas the most.

Food shouldn't be a problem the US makes a ton of the stuff, so does Canada for that matter. One thing I'm really not sure about would be the fuel situation in the US. Owning property with a tree stand would be nice. And of course firearms to defend your stuff. A well would be nice as well.

Quote

My Grandfather remembers the Great Depression.. Actually, I should say he remembers the time frame. He's got a great line: "We didn't notice the Great Depression, we were already poor."

Indeed, they didn't have as far to fall back then. But American's have a much higher standard of living. And I wouldn't be surprised at all if those feeling the pinch don't lobby government to have them raise taxes so they can try and maintain it.

The US government will have a choice to make if and when this happens. Massive socialism, or massive capitalism. Most I imagine will want the government to go more socialist, which unfortunately would make the situation worses.