Another democracy heard from...

[oboe]

I do agree.      When we make a mess, it is our responsibility to clean it up.    And I think nation building is a messy, messy business.    And EXPENSIVE.    That is why I wonder how many more invasions Mr Bush is planning when he talks about spreading democracy around the world, and says all options are on the table.

It seems to me we are failing to address Afghanistan's mess in two ways:  first, the failure to capture OBL and bring him to justice.    As the architect of 9/11, he is the figure most responsible for precipitating the invasion.   His continuing freedom makes us look inept or disinterested, to my mind.   I want him caught, as Mr Bush originally promised he would.  

Second, we are failing to ensure the success of the new democracy.   We are not doing a good job policing the country if it is now an opium-producing power.    And I believe the money and power the drug cartels acquire are going to poison this new democracy right from the start.

[Toad]

Let me see if I understand what you are saying.

Are you saying that democracy in Afghanistan cannot be successful unless OBL is caught? I wish we'd catch him too. However, I believe we are still trying. Do you? My friend just back from Afghanistan says the SF continue to try and track him down. Do you know of a better way? Send another 500,000 troops? What?

Second, you think a much larger.. MUCH larger.. US military presence will help the Afghans now that they have elected their own government? Because that's what it would take to increase "policing" of the opium trade.

Given your desires in this area, how do  you view the drug cartel problems in South America?

If you have a plan that actually works to stop these operations quickly and cheaply... or even at all... please share it with us.

[oboe]

Originally posted by Toad
Let me see if I understand what you are saying.

Are you saying that democracy in Afghanistan cannot be successful unless OBL is caught? I wish we'd catch him too. However, I believe we are still trying. Do you? My friend just back from Afghanistan says the SF continue to try and track him down. Do you know of a better way? Send another 500,000 troops? What?

Second, you think a much larger.. MUCH larger.. US military presence will help the Afghans now that they have elected their own government? Because that's what it would take to increase "policing" of the opium trade.

Given your desires in this area, how do  you view the drug cartel problems in South America?

If you have a plan that actually works to stop these operations quickly and cheaply... or even at all... please share it with us.

Nope, not linking the two.   Just thinking about how much difference the 150,000 or so troops deployed in Iraq could've helped find OBL and stay on top of the opium trade in Afghanistan, as well as assist in other nation building duties.

Regarding the SA drug cartels, I don't think I can address any specifics.    But my general belief is that if any organization is allowed to persist in lucrative, sustained illegal operations it will sooner or later stain the democracy of the country in operates in - by making law enforcement expensive and problematic, and more likely, through the eventual corruption of elected officials.   Offhand I have little faith that any SA democracies in countries with large and powerful drug cartels are effective in carrying out the will of the people.

As far as my plan, what a request!    No, I don't see any cheap or easy way out of this foreign policy mess.     DO you?

[StarOfAfrica2]

Originally posted by oboe
Is it OK that the democracy we set up in Afghanistan in a short amount of time has become the world leader in opium exports? Could anyone have predicted that? And how are the money and power created by the Afghan drug cartels going to influence its young democracy?   Maybe we spending a lot of money (which again, we don't have) to set up democracies that will very quickly cease to be democracies?

That's my big concern.   Seems like a crap shoot to me, with human nature loading the dice against us.

I just don't like messing around in other people's business I guess.   Which when I think about it, should be a trait of conservative thinking.   When I look at the government's antics surrounding the Terry Schiavo case, our foreigh policy, and our national deficit it seems to me we have anything but conservatives in power here.    

Am I sounding like Pat Buchanan?

Simple solution.  Dont let drug cartels have control.  Give them a legal market for their opium.  Plenty of markets for legal opiates used in hospitals around the world, Morphine comes to mind as the most common I'd think.  And since the Afghan govt. has asked us to stay on indefinitely, I dont see why they would be averse to having a LEGAL export that we could even help provide a market for.  The biggest problem that most fledgling democracies face these days is the hard time they have of converting their economy.  The temptation to slide back to the old way of doing things when the going gets rough is hard to resist sometimes.

[ChickenHawk]

For a democracy to work you need a willing populace.  Forcing a democracy on a population that is more concerned with their religious beliefs (which may entail forcing their neighbor to see the light,) or keeping their ethnic identity, or continuing their illegal but profitable trade, will never work.  Some people just hate change.  Heck, a lot of Russians still long for the soviet days.

Do I have the answer?  No.  If I did I'd be in politics.

But forcing a democracy on some countries and expecting it to work itself out is a pipe dream.

[Toad]

I don't think you are going to "stay on top of the opium trade" in Afghanistan and I think South America and cocaine trade pretty much prove that.

Poor countries + immense illegal drug profits = Continual problem

Note this problem persists despite spending huge amounts of money to counter it, despite all law enforcement efforts by countries of origin and countries of destination (sales).

I think where we differ is in the idea that this is somehow preventable or caused by the swtich to democracy.

Again, the Taliban did a better job at controlling the drug trade but I don't think they eliminated it. If you do a bit of searching I think you'll find they merely took it under government control.

THE OPIUM ECONOMY IN AFGHANISTAN

Part 1: DIMENSIONS
Production and Trafficking

Afghanistan's opium production (3400 tons in 2002) increased more than 15-fold since 1979;

From 1996 to 1999, under the Taliban, production doubled and peaked at over 4600 tons;

In 2000 the Taliban banned opium cultivation, but not trade;

I'm pretty well convinced that the next solution to try is .... ending Prohibition.

Did the Prohibition movement in the US really achieve it's goal? Nope. It created more crime and more problems.

I think it's time we try to manage drugs the way we manage alcohol.

No solution will be perfect but what we're doing now is working about like Prohibition worked. In short, it's NOT working.

[rshubert]

Originally posted by StarOfAfrica2
Simple solution.  Dont let drug cartels have control.  Give them a legal market for their opium.  

Take it a step further.  Legalize the drugs.  Then tax them.  Like cigarettes.  

And yes, I'm serious.  I personally think that our war on drugs is a completely lost cause.  If heroin were available at the 7-11, those that are likely to become self-murdering addicts would get it over with, and we could all go on with our lives free from the fear of the crime and violence brought on by the illicit drug trade.

Back to the democracy thing, though.  Oboe, an earlier poster asked you to come up with a solution.  So far, no solution.  What do you want--a communist paradise, a benevolent dictatorship, a libertarian dream (my personal preference), a monarchy, or...?  We (as a nation) do our best to promote freedom (not necessarily democracy, by the way) in the world.  People and systems are imperfect, by the very nature of humanity.  So we should do what?? Give up?  Put a fence on the border and ignore the rest of the world?

I say the middle east is better off now than a few years ago, and the momentum is moving in the direction of freedom, openness and (dare I say it) democracy.  And it's because we took a stand.

[oboe]

Holy Crap with a capital 'C'...I just skimmed over the link you provided, Toad, to the UN report on the opium economy in Afghanistan.   Thank you.   After reading it I am incredulous that anyone thinks a functioning democracy can arise from this destitute, devastated nation of illiterate war-torn drug addicts, pushers, refugees and warlords.    It appears that opium IS the economy of Afghanistan.    Although, maybe my standards are too high.   Perhaps a photograph of a crowd holding up purple fingers is proof of democracy after all, at least for the majority of Americans.

rshubert, honestly I think the best situation for the Afghans would be a benevolent dictatorship, closely watched by international observers.  Democracy can be a pretty inefficient form of government, even when its hitting on all 8.   Dictators can make things happen in a hurry.   Inefficiency is really the last thing the Afghans need right now.  

I thought Bush said he was promoting democracy, but I could be mistaken.

Gotta run.   I'll think on it some more...

[Skydancer]

"Simple solution. Dont let drug cartels have control. Give them a legal market for their opium. Plenty of markets for legal opiates used in hospitals around the world, Morphine comes to mind as the most common I'd think. And since the Afghan govt. has asked us to stay on indefinitely, I dont see why they would be averse to having a LEGAL export that we could even help provide a market for. The biggest problem that most fledgling democracies face these days is the hard time they have of converting their economy. The temptation to slide back to the old way of doing things when the going gets rough is hard to resist sometimes."

Some sense is spoken!

I heartily agree.