Author Topic: Just a Reminder...  (Read 1017 times)

Offline lazs2

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« Reply #45 on: May 02, 2005, 08:06:54 AM »
yep... how many "civilians" were killed because they were in the way of U.S. troops and how many of em were killed by "freedom fighters" ? you simply say that they were all killed because we were there.

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Offline oboe

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« Reply #46 on: May 02, 2005, 09:12:39 AM »
Sorry about the link!   I'll try again:

http://www.iraqbodycount.net/database/

Here's what the fine print says about who is counted in the database:

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This database includes up to 7,350 deaths which resulted from coalition military action during the "major-combat" phase prior to May 1st 2003. In the current occupation phase the database includes all deaths which the Occupying Authority has a binding responsibility to prevent under the Geneva Conventions and Hague Regulations. This includes civilian deaths resulting from the breakdown in law and order, and deaths due to inadequate health care or sanitation.


I'm not assuming there is no fighting or searching going on for OBL in Afghanistan; I'm sure there are plenty of legs being blown off.   I am frustrated that OBL has not been caught (yet), and bewildered by the CinC's Mar 2002 statement that he doesn't know or care where OBL is.    And yep thats an old chestnut too - I admit that right now.    Doesn't make any difference to me though- I hate to see a terrorist hit us that hard and then get away.  I want him caught and brought to justice.    Its been 4 years and we caught SH in a much shorter time.

You might be pleased to know I don't think there are many people like me.  I think I have a curious a mix of traditionally liberal or traditionally conservative views on a range of issues, in fact I don't care for the liberal or conservative labels at all.    One type of person I don't admire is someone who simply holds to a party line on all the issues.

No, I don't want to go to war in North Korea.   My statement about putting the troops in boats was meant to point out the insincerity of Bush's rhetoric about never resting in defending America.    He was willing to send our active duty and reserve troops to invade a nation suspected of harboring WMDs - well now we've got one where no supposition is necessary.   NK has them, and missiles, too.   And suddenly all he want's to do is talk.  To borrow from Bodhi,
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The only thing that would have changed their minds is when NYC, or Philly were a smoking hole, or thousands across America started dieing from some wonderous bio agent.
   Well it looks to me like NK is closer to being able to do that than Iraq was.

In fact, I think they way we are dealing with NK (talks involving other nations) is the way we should dealt with Iraq all along.  I wonder why its OK for NK (and Iran if you are right), but wasn't OK for Iraq?

That's why I'm beginning to conclude the Iraq war was never about WMDs, but about oil all along.   So I guess I'm halfway down the road to saying it IS blood for oil.

I realize I am not as fully informed as our decision makers, but what do you want me to do?   What is an interested citizen to do, beyond relying on a variety of news sources, while at the same time realizing every source has a bias?  

Again sorry about the broken link!

Offline Bodhi

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« Reply #47 on: May 02, 2005, 10:15:57 AM »
oboe,

How do you propose we disarm the NK's?  

Military Force?  Preemptive Nuke strike?  Or, like we are doing, continually starve their economy in hopes that the regime will change.

The first two of those reasons will result in thousands, possibly millions of deaths especailly if the nk's are able to get missiles into Seoul and Tokyo, never mind LA, SF, or Seattle.


As for the WMD's in Iraq, I think that has never been settled.  I feel that most if not all of their weapons were moved to Syria, and / or buried.  Everyone seems to forget that our forces found numerous mobile labs buried in the desert, and numerous labs that were in / under places like hospitials and schools.

So, no proof has been shown that he did not have capabilities to reinstitute these programs when the UN got off his back.  Do you really feel he was such a good samaratin that he just gave em up?
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Offline Toad

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« Reply #48 on: May 02, 2005, 10:16:45 AM »
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Originally posted by oboe
includes all deaths which the Occupying Authority has a binding responsibility to prevent under the Geneva Conventions and Hague Regulations. This includes civilian deaths resulting from the breakdown in law and order, and deaths due to inadequate health care or sanitation
[/b]

An incredible reach.

I think you'll agree the "Occupying Authority" is making a huge effort to maintain law and order and create a health care/sanitation system that is far better than anything they had under Saddam.

If we had made no or little effort in these areas, there might be a case. However, given the magnitude of the task and the incredible effort in manpower and money that we are making, this is a completely bogus set of stats. IMO.

You don't just wave a wand and all is well, particularly in a "country" made up of 3 different and opposing violent groups. Considering the situation, I think the "Occupying Authority" is doing awfully well.




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I am frustrated that OBL has not been caught (yet),
[/b]

Aren't we all. However, I feel he will eventually be caught. He's just a criminal and eventually they all screw up.

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and bewildered by the CinC's Mar 2002 statement that he doesn't know or care where OBL is.
[/b]

This is what Bush actually said on March 13, 2002:

{quote]Q But don't you believe that the threat that bin Laden posed won't truly be eliminated until he is found either dead or alive?

THE PRESIDENT: Well, as I say, we haven't heard much from him. And I wouldn't necessarily say he's at the center of any command structure. And, again, I don't know where he is. I -- I'll repeat what I said. I truly am not that concerned about him. I know he is on the run. I was concerned about him, when he had taken over a country. I was concerned about the fact that he was basically running Afghanistan and calling the shots for the Taliban.

But once we set out the policy and started executing the plan, he became -- we shoved him out more and more on the margins. He has no place to train his al Qaeda killers anymore. And if we -- excuse me for a minute -- and if we find a training camp, we'll take care of it.
Either we will or our friends will. That's one of the things -- part of the new phase that's becoming apparent to the American people is that we're working closely with other governments to deny sanctuary, or training, or a place to hide, or a place to raise money.

And we've got more work to do. See, that's the thing the American people have got to understand, that we've only been at this six months. This is going to be a long struggle. I keep saying that; I don't know whether you all believe me or not. But time will show you that it's going to take a long time to achieve this objective. And I can assure you, I am not going to blink. And I'm not going to get tired. Because I know what is at stake. And history has called us to action, and I am going to seize this moment for the good of the world, for peace in the world and for freedom.
[/quote]

The media was hounding him about OBL, IIRC, when he was trying to focus America on a different part of his agenda. In short, a politician talking.

Still, you can see he pointed out we'll deal with him when we can/have to and we will evenutally get him in due time

From CNN, datelined April 26, 2005.

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Last month, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf told the BBC that Pakistani forces had their best chance of capturing bin Laden last year that but they lost the trail.

Pakistan is where most intelligence analysts suspect the al Qaeda leader is hiding, probably somewhere along the mountainous border with Afghanistan, so Musharraf's assertion that the trail has gone cold can't be good news.

Musharraf told the BBC that Pakistani forces had come close to bin Laden: "There was a time when the dragnet had closed, and we thought we knew roughly the area where he possibly could be," he said. "That was, I think, some time back ... maybe about eight to 10 months back."

The Pakistani government launched a military campaign in the previously autonomous border area of South Waziristan during the last two years. There were numerous clashes, 48 by the government's count, between the military and what it called al Qaeda militants.

The result? More than 250 government troops were killed, according to a Pakistani official. But that campaign is over, and the troops are largely gone from the border area.

Now a different approach is being tried.

This time, the U.S. government has launched a media campaign in Pakistan, using radio, TV and print ads that call on Pakistanis to give up bin Laden and other leading al Qaeda figures, in exchange for millions of dollars of rewards ($25 million for bin Laden).



So, they got close and missed. If he's in Pakistan, we can't go after him overtly with 1500 troops. Now we're trying an new tactic. Might not work but we're trying.

We all want him caught yesterday but that's not the real world, is it?


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No, I don't want to go to war in North Korea.   My statement about putting the troops in boats was meant to point out the insincerity of Bush's rhetoric about never resting in defending America.    He was willing to send our active duty and reserve troops to invade a nation suspected of harboring WMDs - well now we've got one where no supposition is necessary.
[/b]

You apparently fail to see the difference.

You DO realize that once these nutbag dictators HAVE nukes, the situation changes dramatically?

Would you rather have a dozen NK-type situations with dictatore in possession of nukes or would you rather prevent them from getting nukes by any means possible BEFORE they have them?

I think Bush is doing awfully well with NK considering the situation he inherited.

I do not want to deal with them without other Asian nations getting involved and putting their "face" on the line. Clinton/Carter got taken to the cleaners going it alone.

As far as "defending" America, once clowns like Kim have the nukes, you are back at the old MAD doctrine. We can invade NK and remove him; it's well within our military capability IF you are willing to accept all out unrestricted warfare. That means everything on the table, including nuclear strikes. Is that what you want? We could do it now and "win". NK doesn't really have delivery systems. They'd probably nail Seoul and Tokyo to make a point. They might ship one into a US harbor on a freighter and nail a few of our port cities... is that a good game plan in your view?

Once NK decided to make the nukes, which they did despite the Clinton/Carter, it's no longer a "conventional" scenario if it comes to military action.

So.. what do you think... let Iran get them so we have TWO "NK" situations to deal with? You're up for nuclear proliferation amongst the dictatorships of the world?

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  NK has them, and missiles, too.   And suddenly all he want's to do is talk.
[/b]

Well, hell yes. You want to risk nuclear war? I'm thinking once the nukes are in the hands of dictators, talking is a good idea UNLESS you are willing to nuke them. Well, President Oboe... do we launch the ICBM's?

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 I wonder why its OK for NK (and Iran if you are right), but wasn't OK for Iraq?
[/b]

Because Iraq was found in violation of an SC resolution? By unanimous vote in "material breach"? That's a bit different, I'd say.

As for Iran, we're at essentially the same point we were at with NK when it became obvious they were cheating on the IAEA inspections and beginning to develop weapons.

We ignored the situation in NK... you want to ignore it in Iran with the same results?
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Offline oboe

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« Reply #49 on: May 02, 2005, 11:01:50 AM »
I chose a link to the body count site because it seemed to me to be making an effort to count only verifiable deaths according to a set criteria; I think other estimates (a joint effort between Johns Hopkins and Baghdad University, IIRC) put the casualties as high as 100K.   I suppose either can be disbelieved or discredited; how many civilians do you think have died as a result of our invasion/occupation?    

No guys, I don't want to invade or nuke North Korea.   The point I'm laboring to make is that by Bush's rhetoric on Iraq, that is probably what we would be doing if he meant what he said.  Therefore I am tempted to conclude he didn't mean what he said, thus the invasion was really about something else entirely.
See, if we are unwilling to do anything but talk to a nation who genuinely poses a threat to our security, why were we willing to mobilize and invade a country that only supposedly posed a threat?   Oil?    Pretty tempting isn't it?  

I think what you guys are saying, because Iraq didn't pose an immediate threat and the cost wouldn't be too high ($300 billion so far?) it was alright to go in and make sure Iraq wouldn't develop WMDs and become a real threat.   But once they have nukes and really do pose a threat, its too late to do anything about them except talk?

By that logic then, should I expect an invasion of Iran?

Offline Bodhi

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« Reply #50 on: May 02, 2005, 11:37:32 AM »
oboe,


they were working on a nuclear device

they did have the ability to again start making chemical weapons,

they did have a biological weapons program...

So, by those three facts, when did they not have a WMD program?
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Offline Toad

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« Reply #51 on: May 02, 2005, 11:52:56 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by oboe
How many civilians do you think have died as a result of our invasion/occupation?
[/b]

I'm sorry but I'm only counting casualties that are a DIRECT result of US action.

I feel it's more than clear that we are making a well above average effort to maintain law and order and upgrade the health/sanitation/infrastructure of Iraq to better than it was under Saddam.

So I'm not counting deaths caused by, for example, Sunnis driving a suicide car bomb into a Shiite funeral procession.

Further, in comparison to the "Saddam Society" there'd be a lot of dead Iraqis for "political" reasons. You are aware of the mass graves they continue to find?

In the end, the Iraqis are going to be far better off than they were under SH. It isn't going to be bloodless...neither was the American Revolution or the French Revolution.


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The point I'm laboring to make is that by Bush's rhetoric on Iraq, that is probably what we would be doing if he meant what he said.
[/b]

I think you misunderstand him. He's using different methods to deal with different problems. Iraq was not NK. NK is not Iran. There is no one "standard" solution unless you consider military action the best alternative and are willing to risk nuclear war in every case.

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 Therefore I am tempted to conclude he didn't mean what he said
[/b]

I, otoh, feel this guy has "meant what he said" in dealing with NK, Iraq and other "world" political issues far more than the previous guy. YMMV.

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See, if we are unwilling to do anything but talk to a nation who genuinely poses a threat to our security, why were we willing to mobilize and invade a country that only supposedly posed a threat?
[/b]

Because it was possible to militarily remove SH; in fact, if you review the actual military operation, it was amazingly effective and short with minimal casualties.

This would not be the case with NK, especially after the Clinton/Carter solution did not work and they developed nukes.

If NK presented a similar challenge as Iraq, I think we'd have removed Kim by force if necessary already. However, China makes a difference, nuclear capability makes a difference and I'm not sure which of those is the biggest.

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I think what you guys are saying, because Iraq didn't pose an immediate threat and the cost wouldn't be too high ($300 billion so far?) it was alright to go in and make sure Iraq wouldn't develop WMDs and become a real threat.
[/b]

No, I'm saying because Iraq didn't pose a threat of multinational nuclear war it was "doable". See the difference?

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[   But once they have nukes and really do pose a threat, its too late to do anything about them except talk?
[/b]

Unless you are willing to risk nuclear weapon exchanges, yes. Do you think othewise? Are you willing to risk nuclear war to disarm them or should we reassume the MAD/talk profile we had with the Soviet Union all those years? Which would you prefer?

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By that logic then, should I expect an invasion of Iran?


I doubt there'll be an invasion simply for logistical reasons. Despite the "we can fight a two front war" talk you've heard from 1945 until the present, it's just not true.

We don't have the military capability to invade Iran or NK right at this moment. IMO.

By the time we could, Iran will have nukes.

What I actually expect is for Israel to draw the line in the sand without being public about it. I'm sure the Iranians noted the sale of the "bunker busters" to Israel. Israel has a very long history of improving any weapon we give them, and I'd expect that to happen here. A "nuke" bunker buster wouldn't suprise me in the least.

Think about this.. Israel builds nuke BB's and uses them on Iran's facilities. Israel would claim that any radiation that escapes would be from Iran's nuke program. The Iranians would claim the Israelis used nukes on them. No proof would ever be deemed sufficient by either side and the tinfoil hat folks would have a carnival.

So, I think that the message will be sent and understood. The question is will the Iranians go ahead anyway.

Stay tuned.. I think it will get real interesting reasonably soon.
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Offline oboe

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« Reply #52 on: May 02, 2005, 12:08:30 PM »
Bodhi,

Are you talking about Iraq?    If so I don't think I ever said they do not have a WMD program.   Even so which nation poses the greater threat?   Those with WMD programs or those with the actual WMDs?

I think Toad is saying you go after the WMD-program nations before they become full-fledged WMD nations.    So in the case of North Korea, its too late to do anything but talk, but in Iran, its not to late to invade and stop them, as we apparently did in Iraq.
(Though I don't have any hard evidence to links that support the claim that we really stopped a WMD in Iraq - do you?)

Or perhaps it was all only about securing a vital oil supply for our economy.   If that is the case, I would expect to see a US presence in Iraq perpetually, with no invasion of Iran.

If our campaign really is about WMD security, then I would expect to see significant drawdowns of US force levels in Iraq and an invasion of Iran before too long.

Seem reasonable?

Offline oboe

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« Reply #53 on: May 02, 2005, 12:28:03 PM »
Toad,

I can't offer anything substantial regarding the Clinton/Carter dealings with North Korea (btw weren't there a couple presidencies in between there - did they just ignore NK?)  Other than to say I recognize these situations develop over time and I'm sure the situation in NK today cannot be entirely ascribed to the actions of GWB's administration alone.

That site in question listed over 7,000 civilian deaths due to direct combat action.    They include the other deaths - for example your car bombing example because apparently the conquesring nation is supposed to provide for security of civilians while order is restored.

I hope you are right about the Iraqi's future.   Its by no means a done deal IMO, alot can still happen.

I don't consider military action the best alternative - I think I'd always consider it the last alternative.   I'm more of an isolationist, and lot of that stems from budget concerns.    Foreign wars are danged expensive, and we are already deep in debt.

Offline Toad

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« Reply #54 on: May 02, 2005, 12:44:15 PM »
For a quick overview (well, relatively quick) of the NK nuclear program check out Global Security's summary.

Nuclear Weapons Program

The horse left the barn slowly, throughout the 1990's.

As for the "conquering nation" aspect, there'd be deaths in Iraq from other than "natural causes" if we hadn't invaded. I think it's quite a stretch to lay blame for every "unnatural" death at the feet of the Occupying Authority. For example, people die from criminal activity in every country every day. It's totally unreasonable to expect that we could prevent every one of those.

And again, they don't try to balance the lives not lost to SH and his goons in the equation nor do they ascribe any value to the end goal, a free Iraq where thousands are not shot in the head and buried in mass graves because they are political opponents.

There just aren't that many bloodless coups on record.

For the record, I'm probably far more of an isolationist than you are. Check my past history on the bbs.

Iraq was a mistake, IMO. Unfortunately, that's hindsight. I don't feel I was lied to by Bush or that we were all deliberately misled so we could have a war for oil. To me that is just nonsense.

However, the without finding WMD...even if they were moved out to Syria or whatever.....  I see no way to justify this war under Just War Theory.

We did it and now we have to do our best to give them a chance at a free government.
If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude than the animated contest of freedom, go from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains sit lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen!