Would probably need a profile pic to make any judgements, since we have no idea what the original looks like. (Well, its too hard to judge by itself because the overall feature is way too dark)
Also, you really should fiddle around with the arena time settings, because its too dark to make out any features.
Another pointer, is that even if planes get up in dirty conditions, they have a certain way of getting dirty. It's not just random smudging they receive. I think you may be able to finde some pics on the net, on how dirty aircraft get their distinct 'patterns'.
