charon... I would agree also but.... change in the region was and is inevitable... you have to start somewhere and someone had to get the ball rolling... what is being done now may not be the be all to end all solution but it is a start..
Change to the region will/would have been/ much slower without a major effort like what we have done there... maybe this taste of freedom won't take wholeheartedly... maybe they will sink back..
It might be a 3 steps forward, two back kind of thing... but... it's a start.. it's a taste. Next time it will be even harder to control the people..
only time will tell. I think it was/is all worth the effort.
I agree with the need to address the issues in the region. I would disagree that Iraq was the place to start, but certainly it's too early to see if this will be a net win or a net loss for the West. And either could represent a HUGE win or loss in the end.
The main problems are related to the fact that Iraq was an artificial nation created as a matter of Western convenience and held together in modern, reactionary times through force and intimidation (and with the active support of groups that benefited directly under Hussein).
We have now eliminated Hussein, and groups like the Kurds, and Wahabi Sunnis and Iranian-backed Sheites see a golden opportunity to finally achieve what they couldn't in the recent past. I doubt they are going to go away or step back from their long-term goals any time soon. And once you get away from the extremist elements you have a population in general that is unfamiliar with the concept of democracy. Not everyone appreciates democracy (even if they should, dammit

), and you are already hearing statements on the street about how secure things were under Hussein compared to the current turmoil. Even a Western country like Germany, that was used to the Kaiser, was quick to abandon democracy and embrace the security of Adolph Hitler when the going got rough.
So, IMO to have a win we need a lot more force on the ground, for a lot more years. The shake and bake Iraqi army and security forces will take at least a decade to become effective, if Hackworth’s estimates on force development (and he worked a lot with the ARVN forces) are correct. In the meantime, we may need a draft (which I support for contrarian reasons as well -- sharing the responsibility). We may need to spend a lot of money and take far more casualties. And if we manage to create some form of true Iraqi "democracy" and not some transparent puppet government, they will likely say FU Yankees, here's some $80 bbl oil for you and by the way we're taking full control of our nationalized oil industry while were at it.
Unfortunately/fortunately - hard to choose which to use - the alternative might be far worse if we pull out to soon. We could lose Saudia Arabia and perhaps other "moderate" states to fundamentalism. Time to really start working on those fuel cell technologies to offset that $10/gallon gasoline. Or maybe not. The end result might be no better or worse for the West than under Hussein with no major ramifications beyond the borders of Iraq.
I certainly don't know, and I seriously doubt anybody else does either, including those who should know. Their plan for the democracy domino effect fell apart the minute the Iraqis failed to welcome our liberators with the same open arms the French had in 1944. It’s been on to plan B, C, D, E and F ever since. So, IMO a crap shoot, with us lacking the resolve (including the Red states and BarcaLounger chickenhawks I bet, if you start using the word DRAFT) to make sure it’s a win. I really, really hope the **** I’m wrong (like I have been many times in the past

)
Charon