Author Topic: Bush is now President - what about the Former Yugoslavia?  (Read 2303 times)

Offline Toad

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Bush is now President - what about the Former Yugoslavia?
« Reply #30 on: December 17, 2000, 11:07:00 AM »
I find them pretty much unrelated. Sorry.

In Powell I believe we will have a Secretary of State that actually understands the costs, the risks and the possibilities when politicians turn to force to execute political policy.

I see this as a benefit that we have not enjoyed for quite some time.

As for the missile defense, it may or may not be ready for deployment as yet. We've kept bigger things secret before. Anyone here know what the Aurora actually does?  

If it was ready and I was in charge, I'd be building it as fast as possible in secret using the funds from all those $600 hammers. I'd probably toss out a few well-publicised tests that failed as well. Disinformation, don't you know.  

If it wasn't ready, I'd sure keep up the research on it. Sooner or later there's going to be a need. Not just in the US but in countries around the world. Better to have this technology and never need it than to need it and not have it. Face it, there's some mighty BAD people out there.

All new technology ideas and concepts are intially derided as "impossible" and "prohibtively expensive". The naysayers are convinced they are right; they ridicule the dreamers. Then one fine day, a bright, determined guy who just won't give up finds the answer.

Read the story of Thomas Edison's search for a light bulb filament.

Believe. The human race is not done creating yet.

Edit:

OH, BTW Dowding...when are you Brits going to send a division down to Palestine and straighten out that mess? As I recall you guys figured pretty prominently in setting it all up.   Obviously, the US is too well identified with one side to take a military role, so how about we maintain Bosnia and you guys be totally responsible for Palestinian issues? Body count is up over 300 now, isn't it? Are you guys ready to act?

[This message has been edited by Toad (edited 12-17-2000).]
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Offline Eagler

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Bush is now President - what about the Former Yugoslavia?
« Reply #31 on: December 17, 2000, 06:04:00 PM »
Dowding

I didn't say land mine the borders, that makes me a 'Compassionate Conservative' doesn't it?  

Not serious, not that cold hearted. Do believe we have our military in place without an end plan. Nothing like permanent deployment. I do not believe the US has to play global cop. All it does it makes us enemies around the globe.

I'm not against going in, kicking arse, setting it right and getting the hell out. ie Desert Storm. Plus it makes great tv and good material for Discovery Wings  

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Offline mietla

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Bush is now President - what about the Former Yugoslavia?
« Reply #32 on: December 17, 2000, 06:45:00 PM »
 
Quote
Originally posted by Dowding:
Mietla - I think you mistake NMD for the ICBM Early Warning System that has been around for decades. That does benefit us all, but NMD only benefits the States; the anti-ICBM missile system coverage does NOT extend to UK, and simply adds an incentive for a UK attack, with no benefit to the native population.


Huh? I did not say anything. I've been away for a while and you jump on me behind my back   . But since you dragged me into it...

At least you are consistent. Your logic is actually prety straight forward:

"Benefits me? --- good, does not benefit me? --- bad." And you seem to evaluate your position daily.

A while ago we had a similar discussion. You had no problem whatsoever with UK bailing out of the treaty they had signed with Poland.

Neither you had a problem with Poland being sold to Soviets, when the war was over for you.

Heck, you had no problem with charging Polish government for planes and other war materiel used by Polish pilots who fought and died for your country in BoB.

US bases? good, they protect us.
Nukes/radars on bases? bad, they may make us a target.

Like Clinton, you "feel other people's pain", but you'd rather have someone else to send his money to pay for it and his son to die for it.



[This message has been edited by mietla (edited 12-17-2000).]

Offline Boroda

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Bush is now President - what about the Former Yugoslavia?
« Reply #33 on: December 17, 2000, 09:08:00 PM »
First.

US is unable to make a reliable anti-ICBM system. They tried in 70-s and failed. According to the 1972 treaty USSR and USA had to chose one area to protect with ABM system. USA have chosen North Dakota, their ICBM farm. USSR have chosen Moscow. Now there is a second generation of ABMs around Moskow - a so-called "triangle" with a control center in Sofrino. This system is far beyond any US research, it's previous version intercepted ICBM warheads in early 70-s, while US can't make a single ABM even in 90-s.

Second.

This system has a capability to intercept no more then 5-10 warheads aimed at Moscow. It's no more then a protection from an accidental launch. So - I doubt that US is able to develop any kind of protection. They plan to deploy 110 ABMs, AFAIR. It's less then the quantity deployed around Moscow. Funny.

Third.

Early warning radars can be built only according to the same treaty. So - any new early warning station that US builds automaticaly violates this traty. (Played "F-19"? Remember that radar long-range site at Olenegorsk in Northern theatre? I've seen it  ).

Fourth.

AFAIU the whole NMD project is to satisfy the US military-industrial complex. Well, it's as useless as "peacekeeping" operations in Yugoslavia, but at least it doesn't suppose outright killing of innocent people and support for Moslim terrorists. Maybe it's better to leave the little boys play? Dowding, they will pay your government for the land they use! And noone will plan to nuke UK beause of that useless toys.

Looks like the US government's goal is to make the rest of the world angry and to feed their military-industrial complex (backward and ineffective) at any cost, including human lives. At least this was a policy in Klingon times. Wonder if Bush will be strong enough to break this trend.

P.S.: Don't take part 4 seriously, just think about what I said  

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LJK Raubvogel

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Bush is now President - what about the Former Yugoslavia?
« Reply #34 on: December 17, 2000, 10:08:00 PM »
 
Quote
Originally posted by Boroda:
First.

US is unable to make a reliable anti-ICBM system. They tried in 70-s and failed.

 Now there is a second generation of ABMs around Moskow - a so-called "triangle" with a control center in Sofrino.

This system is far beyond any US research, it's previous version intercepted ICBM warheads in early 70-s, while US can't make a single ABM even in 90-s.

 So - I doubt that US is able to develop any kind of protection.



I see the Russian propaganda machine is alive and well. Silly me, I had no idea that Russian technology was so cutting edge. I'm going right out to buy me a Bolshevik-III 5Ghz CPU  


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[This message has been edited by LJK Raubvogel (edited 12-17-2000).]

Offline Maverick

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Bush is now President - what about the Former Yugoslavia?
« Reply #35 on: December 17, 2000, 11:23:00 PM »
Dowding,

A couple of points.
US and Britain are members of NATO. That treaty calls for mutual aid in the event of aggression. That means that if the US is attacked, YOU as a country and treaty signatory are involved. Therefor you are already a target. You have been ever since NATO was formed. No difference.

Great Britain does not now have a way to defend from an atomic missile attack. That means you're vulnerable today without the "missile umbrella". How could you be more vulnerable with it?

Those bases you dismiss so lightly. Do not think that there are no chances of any "special weapons" being there. Why do you think the US and Britain are interested in having a "forward defense" in Europe and a fall back position on an "unsinkable aircraft carrier"? There are quite a few bombers there that drop much more than mk82's and their "smart" brethren. That is to allow a starting point and a position to maintain the continent in the event of a theater wide conflict. The Soviets knew this and so does every other power there. Therefor GB is still a target.

It has been the policy of the US that the use of nuclear weapons would not be ruled out in a large scale invasion. GB also bought into that policy. That makes GB even more a target.

If you haven't figured it out yet you are on the second step out from the front lines in an east/west conflict assuming the Russians are the protagonists. You will be the third or fourth step out in the case of a Chinese protagonist. Lets not even think about a middle east eruption with weapons of mass destruction.

Finally let me reiterate that in the event of an attack on the US you are obligated by the treaty your government signed to become involved in the conflict, immediately. That goes for conventional as well as non conventional situations. All those who would think of an attack on the US know this. That means they know they would have to be prepared to deal with the Brits in that conflict as well.

Tell me how you are not a target at the present time. As far as I can see, you are more vulnerable with the US being vulnerable. If the US is taken out, who will pull your kidney pie out of the oven before it gets burnt???

Mav
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Offline mietla

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Bush is now President - what about the Former Yugoslavia?
« Reply #36 on: December 17, 2000, 11:46:00 PM »
 
Quote
Originally posted by Maverick:
Finally let me reiterate that in the event of an attack on the US you are obligated by the treaty your government signed to become involved in the conflict, immediately.
Mav


He, he... we tried that once already in 1939.

Offline Boroda

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Bush is now President - what about the Former Yugoslavia?
« Reply #37 on: December 18, 2000, 02:24:00 AM »
LJK Raubvogel, even the S-225 ABMs intercepted ICBMs with multiple false-targets and active jammers in early 70-s. Interception thresholds were 300km - 5km, with 1 megaton warhead. Later the target selection (the part my Uncle worked on) and general accuracy was increased, so they switched to a conventional warhead. It's a fact. Call it propaganda if you wish. The next generation of Soviet ABMs is so far the only working missile-defence  system. Look at the US progress - it haven't reached a Soviet late-60s level.

Maverick, noone has a way to defend from a massive atomic missile attack. Even the 110 proposed US ABMs with estimated hit ratio of 50% (very optimistic IMO) will intercept 55 warheads. It's 5 modern ICBMs.

Mietla - very well said!

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Offline StSanta

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Bush is now President - what about the Former Yugoslavia?
« Reply #38 on: December 18, 2000, 06:45:00 AM »
So the NMD is supposed to protect the US from launches of missiles by terrorists or hostile nations?

To me, it would seem that the same guys who can smuggle in tons of coke can smuggle in a small nuclear device, drive it downtown Washington and set it off. Booom.

And the way I've read it building that NMD violates a 1972 missile treaty agreement. Does this not make the *Americans* the "aggressors" or direct cause of higher tensions?

Just curious.



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Offline Eagler

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Bush is now President - what about the Former Yugoslavia?
« Reply #39 on: December 18, 2000, 08:19:00 AM »
Do you really think a nuclear attack would come from above? I think it would be in a suitcase either carried (martyr) or mailed (Fed Ex, UPS, etc). Why risk a missile? China or whoever would just give the means to one of our enemies and have them do the dirty work. Imagine if the van in the World Trade  Center would have been nuclear? Me don't see the missile threat. Me sees the terrorist threat. Maybe missiles after terrorist knock out major centers or cause mass confusion but terrorists 1st.  

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Offline Toad

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Bush is now President - what about the Former Yugoslavia?
« Reply #40 on: December 18, 2000, 10:26:00 AM »
 
Quote
Originally posted by StSanta:
To me, it would seem that the same guys who can smuggle in tons of coke can smuggle in a small nuclear device, drive it downtown Washington and set it off. Booom.

Yep, Santa. Except they'll probably pick NYC. They'd be doing us way to much of a favor if they took out DC while the government was in session and both houses of Congress in town.

 

As far as the treaty....Realpolitik says the former USSR doesn't even exist anymore and, in any event, they are not a true threat. It's like having a treaty with the old Roman Empire.  


The true threat is now China and we don't have a treaty with them.

If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude than the animated contest of freedom, go from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains sit lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen!

Offline Boroda

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Bush is now President - what about the Former Yugoslavia?
« Reply #41 on: December 18, 2000, 11:08:00 AM »
Toad, if Russia is not a successor of the USSR - then why the hell do we pay it's debts? Did you try to make the Roman Empire pay the debts?

Russia follows all the treaties signed by USSR. So should the US, but so far they have spat at all the international agreements that doesn't suite them.

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Offline Toad

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Bush is now President - what about the Former Yugoslavia?
« Reply #42 on: December 18, 2000, 12:13:00 PM »
Boroda,

With respect, the USSR is no more. I hope we have all found a better, non-antagonistic relationship with the various Republics that have emerged from what was the USSR.

Do you in Russia still feel that the US might unilaterally start a nuclear exchange with any of the former members of the USSR? I certainly hope not; I doubt very many people here view any of the Republics as "the enemy" now.

However, politics move on. The Chinese have publicly stated that they will launch nuclear ICBMS at Los Angeles in the event the US interferes with their coming showdown with Taiwan.

Where is the threat to the US now? Indeed, are not people who publicly threaten to launch nuclear ICMBS in a first strike a threat to the ENTIRE WORLD?

It would seem to be beneficial to all to have this anti-missile technology developed. Who would you prefer to own this technology first, the US or China? Which country do you think would use it in the best interest of the entire world?

The US and the former Soviet Republics are no longer enemies, IMHO. We do not threaten them and they do not threaten us. There is however, a new mutual threat that should be addressed. An old, outdated non-relevant treaty shouldn't stand in the way of that, IMO.
If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude than the animated contest of freedom, go from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains sit lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen!

Offline Dowding

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Bush is now President - what about the Former Yugoslavia?
« Reply #43 on: December 18, 2000, 12:56:00 PM »
For a start, mietla, I keep mistaking you for miko2d. I don't know why, but it keeps happening. Sorry.

Mietla, you're right, we've had a similar discussion before (superficially similar mind you). I've also said that there is no way on Earth Britain could have got enough troops supplied, deployed and ready to halt the German invasion of Poland. We couldn't even stop them in France. That is a fact.

You now seem to be suggesting that Britain should have gone to war with the USSR in attempt to keep Poland free. Towards the end of the war, it became clear who the new enemy was - Stalin. The race was on to claim as much land as possible for the West, before communism over-ran everything. There was also a need to reach an agreement so that the Allies could re-group and have a bit of a breather - 6 years of total war had taken it out of Britain, by the way (it has never really recovered in terms of economy and military capability). It was clear Stalin was pretty much immovable on the subject of territory - how could Britain have taken back Poland or pushed back the USSR back to the borders of Russia at the negotiation table when you were dealing with Stalin?

Also remember that Britain and the US contemplated nuking Russia to win back Eastern Europe, but by that time Stalin had developed atomics for himself.

 
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...died for your country in BoB.

They weren't just fighting for Britain - they were fighting for 'freedom' and for the people back home who had been put into forced labour camps, or worse.

 
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"Benefits me? --- good, does not benefit me? --- bad." And you seem to evaluate your position daily.

Well thanks for telling me what I think, I appreciate it. But isn't that what Bush thinks? Benefit America - good (NMD). Doesn't benefit America - bad (Kosovo). I'm not being cynical when I say that self-interest if the underlying principal in all foreign policy.

Toad:

Of course the Middle East situation is all Britain's fault. Perhaps you could do the world a favour and nuke Britain - nothing good has ever come out of this country, except the American people, who are above all blame and have never, ever done anything questionable, abhorrant or 'evil'. Above all (literally), it's an irrefutable fact that no American government has ever made a mistake. Vietnam was a victory. God would never allow an error to be made by His country. The world's problems are all the fault of those god-damned Europeans. Let's buy up all their manufacturing industries and then lay all the workers off - that'll show them who's king of this castle. Keep that flag flying higher than the rest, boys, they might forget that we are superior.  

 
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Not serious, not that cold hearted.

Glad to hear it. But I think America would have enemies even if it was in splendid isolation; you would have to ban all American financial influence from anywhere outside the States to trully escape from the world.

 
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That means you're vulnerable today without the "missile umbrella". How could you be more vulnerable with it?

The missile umbrella doesn't cover us, for a start. It only covers the States.

 
Quote
Finally let me reiterate that in the event of an attack on the US you are obligated by the treaty your government signed to become involved in the conflict, immediately. That goes for conventional as well as non conventional situations. All those who would think of an attack on the US know this. That means they know they would have to be prepared to deal with the Brits in that conflict as well.

Firstly, I really doubt that the UK government would respond with nuclear weapons if America was attacked on a limited scale (i.e. not a MAD type scenario). For instance, if Iraq somehow managed to get a nuclear bomb to detonate within a US city (either by ICBM or 'suitcase'). Conventional warfare would be used.

Secondly, we are already a target - of course I know that. But why add another reason to the list of why the UK should be obliterated? The way Bush seems to want it, US forces should be withdrawn from Europe ('wiping their own asses' as some great intellectual observed in this thread), yet Britain would still form a cornerstone of NMD (which doesn't cover the UK). It doesn't seem realistic to me.

BTW, I can't wait until we have a European superstate with the financial and military might of the States. I reckon we'll have it within 50 years. The world will be a much safer place with two democratic super-powers.

 
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"unsinkable aircraft carrier".

I hate that phrase, BTW, it's so patronising. What good is an 'aircraft carrier' that is too radioactive to live on?

 
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He, he... we tried that once already in 1939.

And wasn't war declared, despite the fact Hitler would have gladly have left Britain alone, if we had wanted it? We could have sued for peace after Dunkirk. But we didn't.

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Offline Boroda

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Bush is now President - what about the Former Yugoslavia?
« Reply #44 on: December 18, 2000, 02:14:00 PM »
Toad, if you think that you are not obliged by treaties signed with USSR - then I think it's OK if Russia stops paying you back your money.

Looks like you don't know some things. Very sad for me, probably for you too. Current Russian military doctrine is based on a "PREVENTIVE NUCLEAR STRIKE". We don't have 20000 tanks to stream towards the Atlantic any more (and I think it's not bad), and the only protection is the nuclaear shield. Security of my country now relies onto that 12-headed nuclear beasts.

Yes, the treaty is old and obsolete. But there is another case: modern big ICBMs are now going out of service according to USSR's treaties that we obey. And new small missiles are unable to penetrate the modern ABM system, like the one around Moscow. If in any case US succeeds in building NMD - we are helpless, take us with bare arms.

I am not reasoning here, just repeating opinions I've heard.

And I was frightened, REALLY frightened in Spring, 1999. You probably don't have any idea of how close Russia was to threatening nuclear strike...

Anyway - my strong wish is that status quo will be preserved.

As for Chneese - think about Siberia. They need space. That's where they can get it.  Only one bomb to cut the tiny Transsib railroad line - and that's all. Baikal-Amur railroad is under conservation now, and it's one way, and useless in case of war. Tunnels at the north shore of Baikal can be destroyed for years with conventional bombs.

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