Author Topic: Missile Test Success  (Read 3324 times)

Offline Boroda

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« Reply #15 on: July 15, 2001, 11:47:00 PM »
Toad, "renegotiating" the 1972 ABM treaty means that Russia (as Putin already stated) will feel free from all the disarmament agreements, and it will start another total escalation of arms race.

But in this case Russia will rely only on nukes, because now it's not capable to wage a large-scale conventional war in Europe and/or Middle East.

Offline leonid

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« Reply #16 on: July 16, 2001, 01:22:00 AM »
Yes, given the present state of Russia, should Bush dishonor the treaty and pursue ABM research, then he will be giving Putin a blank check for militarization, specifically nuclear rearmament.  Sure, Russia's market economy is presently incapable of such a thing, but who says Russia has to keep trying to be a democratic country?  And right now the Russian people are about fed up with the so-called 'democracy' they have experienced for this last decade.  Something needs to give there, and soon, which is why Bush's decision is so very badly timed.

The only reason they tried the democratic process was to have a better life.  And Clinton wooed Yeltsin with dreams of golden Rubles growing on birch trees.  The Clinton administration saw Russia as an excellent opportunity for making money, and nothing more really.  They didn't realize that if there was no political process to stand on first, then in the end internal corruption would destroy any accountability for Russia's market.  Funny to think that Richard Nixon, of all people, understood this all too well.  And now, once again, it is selfish economic interests that steer Bush towards a perilous path - and, potentially, a new Cold War.
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Offline Tuomio

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« Reply #17 on: July 16, 2001, 07:29:00 AM »
Ex texas governor and ex KGB officer...Hmmmm..Id say, that anything could happen. US breaking ABM treaty isnt helping this situation at all, Toad, i think you have to agree dont you?

I know theres good reasons to have ABM system working, but i think US and Russia would build that together, respecting eachothers ideology and signed treaties.

And if we take in the fact, that weapons industry is the biggest industry on earth, its 100% sure that those guys have their hands on this. Another cold war would mean $$$$$$ for them and thats the only thing those guys care about. Heck i think if they had the chance, theyd push the red button without hesitation.

Offline Eagler

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« Reply #18 on: July 16, 2001, 08:03:00 AM »
No ones mentioned our friends the "Red" chinese..
They and the current leadership of Russia are much more "hawkish" than ole Bush. I think GW is just trying to catch up..
Boroda
Your thought process is really scary. Only the backwoods militant types here have gas masks hanging in their kitchens  :)
I think you are somewhat paraniod ole boy..
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Offline Toad

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« Reply #19 on: July 16, 2001, 09:23:00 AM »
Boroda, you still haven't answered the question. You believe that at some time the US is going to initiate a military attack on Russia?

Leonid, the Russians "tried the democratic process was to have a better life" and "now the Russian people are about fed up with the so-called 'democracy' they have experienced for this last decade"? "...there was no political process to stand on first, then in the end internal corruption would destroy any accountability for Russia's market"?

This is all the fault of the Clinton administration? Or did you mean to say the "fault of the USA"?  Or are you going to acknowledge that Communism was a failed system, the old Soviet Union was coming apart like a pair of $2 shoes in a rainstorm and they had to do something they obviously weren't prepared to do?

In any event, please do explain how the end of the Communist system in the Soviet Union and the dissatisfaction with corruption and inefficiency can be laid on the doorstep of the USA? I know I'm going to enjoy reading this.

Tuomio, I'm sure you've noticed that in the American political process that not everything goes the President's way. He is not a dictator. There's about 553 members of Congress, almost equally split between Democrats and Republicans, that have a large voice in what the USA actually decides to do. Bush will propose continued development, I'm sure. If Congress approves this proposal, it would hardly be viewed as solely a move by Bush. It would be a decision by 553 representatives of the US citizens, wouldn't it?
If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude than the animated contest of freedom, go from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains sit lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen!

Offline miko2d

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« Reply #20 on: July 16, 2001, 01:04:00 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Boroda:
For me - there are two ways to survive it. Run away like Miko2d, or just enjoy my guarantied ration as an Academy of science employee.

 I will not comment on the rest of ignorant statements in your post - every single one of them completely at odds with reality
 But as for "running away" I want to clarify a few points.

 1. Last time I checked, not just me, but my whole country - all 60+ million ukrainians run away from your glorious union and guaranteed rations. Of course we must all be fashists, like those Lithuanians and other defectors.

 2. I "ran away" before socialism crumbled, before any econmoic troubles in russia were even suspected, before information about the west was freely available in Soviet Union.
 Many well-wishing people were pitying me for exposing myself to the dangers of capitalism when I had everything guaranteed.
 I left powerfull, stable country where I could have had everything guaranteed in order to live in a country where nobody owed me anything and I had to rely on my own abilities and wit to achieve anything. If US did not accept me, I would have moved to any other communist-free country, rich or poor.

 I did run a risk that while my case was processed the international relations would change, I would get denied exit by some commissar and my family would have to stay with "traitor" stamp and never holding a job better then a street sweeper like my friend's family did for a decade.

 You want to talk concern about the future? Tell me how many children are you planning to have? What does your system guarantee when it comes to affording as many children as your wife can bear, accessible medical technology, being able to raise and educate them all?
 Because most of my friends who stayed in your guaranteed paradise are lucky to have a  single child and can hardly afford even that.
 So whose future are your concerned about? Have you seen population numbers of your country? Why does it seem to me that it is simply dying out for the lack of procreation?
 You have to have a future in order show concern about it and not seem like a liar, but I guess the comissars were always busy arranging somebody else's futures.

 I am sure you would want me there with you on your guaranteed ration working for you overlords who declared themselves "democratic" for now.
  I bet you would find me usefull back in my T72 bringing back all those lithuanians, ukrainians, poles, muslims and other strays from your great empire, like they had us do it to afganis in the 80s in T-55s.
 Come to think of it, those defencive Stinger interceptor missiles proved extremely usefull to afganis then - more usefull then treaties with the peacefull Soviet Union.

 You would not know democracy if it bit you on the ass.

 Guess what - in my life un USA and my travels in Europe I see much more of your leaders then you do. How come they all have real estate here and send their children here for education, their families for medical treatment? How come they are not happy with their guaranteed rations?

 Americans did something to gain their freedom over two hundred years ago and have been working on that ever since.
 I did something to gain my freedom dozen years ago.
 What did you do?
 You think you got your freedon handed down to you by Mikhail Gorbachev, as if a freedom could ever be handed down. Or rather it can be handed down or at leasr relinkuished by unwilling souvereign, but can never be passed that way. As anything else handed down to russian people - whether by it's own rulers or by foreign aid, it got intercepted and appropriated by interpreneural crooks who are before most even realised what they were offered.
 We called the feudal system we had "communism" and then "socialism". Now you call semi-feudal system you have "democracy" and decry it's failure.

 Arguing ABM treaties and missle shields with you is as pointless as it was discussing Spanish Inheritance treaties with a french serf or a spanish peon in middle ages. You will do as your superiors decide.

 I am a man who can think and make a decision. Whether I stayed or left, if it ever came to blows, I would have fought on the side of US rather then Russia. Go ahead, call me a traitor.

 miko

Offline john9001

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« Reply #21 on: July 16, 2001, 01:45:00 PM »
miko.....welcome to the USA
john

Offline Boroda

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« Reply #22 on: July 16, 2001, 01:53:00 PM »
Miko, I have to leave work now, and I want to say that I miss the passed-off USSR, half of my family lives in Ukraine (Chernovtsy, Krivoy Rog and Simferopol), but in no way I want anyone to try bringing them back using tanks and missiles.

I think that Yugoslavia was a good example of what can happen.

But I will insist that Latvia is a fascist state. Trials over Soviet partisans, SS "veterans" on parade in Riga with banners etc.

2 Russians were sentenced to 15 years in prison for hanging a Red Flag over local church.

Any public display of Soviet symbols is criminal, so you can go directly to prison after showing your foreign passport (all of them are still USSR) to customs officer...

Offline Jack55

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« Reply #23 on: July 16, 2001, 02:19:00 PM »
Wasn't the ABM treaty between the USSR and the USA? How is the USA bound with Russia by this treaty?

Offline Gadfly

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« Reply #24 on: July 16, 2001, 02:38:00 PM »
You know, or should, that both of our countries continued to develop the capabilites inherent in the system, Boroda.  The difference is that in our country, notice is given that we intend to do it, in yours, it is just done.

Offline mietla

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« Reply #25 on: July 16, 2001, 04:01:00 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Boroda:
For me - there are two ways to survive it. Run away like Miko2d, or just enjoy my guarantied ration as an Academy of science employee.

Slavery does it to you. Born a slave, you can't even imagine being free. As a matter of fact it is right down scary to take your (and your family's) fate into your own hand, if you have your daily bowl of rice handed to you. I know, I have done it.

Guess what, I've been through some tough times, but never, ever regreted my decision.

Freedom is sweeter than all the guaranteed rations in your cage. Too bad you won't ever know it.

I just can't understand why so many people born in this country do not see their blessings, and are willingly trying to piss it all away, and turn this country into a socialist sewer. And for what? For a fcukcking "guaranteed ration" handed down by the government.

I guess a couple of generations of public "free" education can produce a bunch of komsomoltsev.

Offline AKSWulfe

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« Reply #26 on: July 16, 2001, 04:06:00 PM »
The second I hear about nukes being launched from any country towards the USA, I'm going to walk outside, smoke a joint and 5 minutes later bend over to kiss my bellybutton good-bye.
-SW

Offline miko2d

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« Reply #27 on: July 16, 2001, 04:51:00 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Boroda:
But I will insist that Latvia is a fascist state. Trials over Soviet partisans, SS "veterans" on parade in Riga with banners etc.
 2 Russians were sentenced to 15 years in prison for hanging a Red Flag over local church.
 Any public display of Soviet symbols is criminal, so you can go directly to prison after showing your foreign passport (all of them are still USSR) to customs officer...

 I do not know much about Latvia to have an opinion on that. Or rather, I know quite a lot but not first or even second-hand and it is too sencitive an issue to trust mass media - yours or ours.

 If the horrors of communist occupation caused latvians ro recoil into facism, bad for them. History will make them and their children pay for it. I hope their state is democratic enough to allow dissidents to leave. That would be more than soviet communists or nazis (after the first few years) allowed.
 You could say "why the ethnic russians should leave their birthplace" and I agree that it is not fair. And I am all for fighting when given no choice or even for common good (provided everyone shares the risk), but dying so that someone else's children could have better future - not logical and usually not what it seems.

 At the same time I fail to understand your surprise at the Latvian's hate to everything communist and even russian.
 Latvia was invaded, ravaged and occupied by "russian" communists, not german nazis. To them "comissar" sounds like "fuhrer" sounds to you. Germans were their liberators and allies for a while - and SS veterans and "forest brothers" their heroes.
 As for soviet partisans, you may make your impression of them according to the soviet movies, but even in Ukraine they committed atrocities against civil population suspected of or forced into cooperation with germans. I have that firsthand. If long pacified ukrainians had tens of thousands of people joining germans or even fighting soviet partisans, german occupants and polish partisans all at once (and continuing the struggle into 1947), why be surprised by freshly conquered Latvians?
 Latvians lost lot of people and their way of life to communists, not nazis and almost had their country stolen from under them by forced assimilation. Their anger now is deplorable but not surprising.

 A very democratic Germany imposes penalties for displaying nazi symbols. That seems strange to americans, but it's their decision. Why can't Latvia ban the hated communist symbols? I am sure they are very offensive to any latvian who's family lost people to communist repessions.

 As for going to jail for having a passport with country's symbology, if they did that they would be violating international laws.
 First, they must recognize foreing documents complying with certain standards. Second, if they do not let you into the country, they cannot prosecute you for violating it's laws and you are not in the country yet before your passport is approved. So if they are doing that, they are obviously wrong and Russia can and must act desisively to protect it's citizens.
 If Latvia does not like the look of passports Russia gives it's citizens, it should discuss it with the government.

 I am sure that there are a lot of prettythangholes in Latvia. They have some advantage though of being a small county - more likely that they will sort themselves out faster then larger ones.

 miko

Offline Yoj

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« Reply #28 on: July 16, 2001, 05:01:00 PM »
Somehow in all of this thread, the politics has covered what seems to me to be the central questions of a "missile shield".

First, if such a thing were possible (it isn't, but we'll get to that later), it would not be a "purely defensive weapon.  In fact, there is no such thing as a purely defensive weapon - its just a question of how it is used.  A nuclear-capable country with such a working shield would have the ability to destroy any country lacking one with no risk of retaliation.  The fact that the US would not do such a thing now is no guarantee that it would NEVER do it.  So, other countries are fully justified in being concerned.

The question is moot anyway, because a "missile shield" is pie in the sky.  Certainly, systems can be developed that can destroy incoming warheads.  And those systems can always be beaten.  Even if you develop a system that has a guaranteed 100% reliability (not feasible within the forseeable future), an enemy merely has to launch more units than the system can take out.  In reality, such a system would have to have multiple redundancy, requiring two, three or more defensive missiles for each potential warhead (up to 10 or more warheads per attacking missile in a MIRV system).  It has to be that way because if even one gets through the results are unacceptably catastrophic.  That is the fatal flaw.  If it is not 100% successful, its completely worthless.

The other weakness in the concept is that the command and control system for a shield would require millions (perhaps billions) of lines of code that would have to be bug free without ever having been tested in a totally realistic environment (i.e., a real attack). Yes sections of code can be tested, but its a law of software that any non-trivial system must have undiscovered bugs.    

So, we now have a situation in which much of the world is getting unhappy with the US unilaterally disregarding a treaty signed in good faith (well - we assume so, anyway), and spending many billions of dollars on a system that cannot be made to do what its intended to do.  I'm sure the intentions are good ones, but its madness, nevertheless.  

- Yoj

Offline leonid

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« Reply #29 on: July 16, 2001, 05:45:00 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Toad:
Leonid, the Russians "tried the democratic process was to have a better life" and "now the Russian people are about fed up with the so-called 'democracy' they have experienced for this last decade"? "...there was no political process to stand on first, then in the end internal corruption would destroy any accountability for Russia's market"?

This is all the fault of the Clinton administration? Or did you mean to say the "fault of the USA"?  Or are you going to acknowledge that Communism was a failed system, the old Soviet Union was coming apart like a pair of $2 shoes in a rainstorm and they had to do something they obviously weren't prepared to do?

In any event, please do explain how the end of the Communist system in the Soviet Union and the dissatisfaction with corruption and inefficiency can be laid on the doorstep of the USA? I know I'm going to enjoy reading this.

Pull up a chair, and enjoy, Toad.  It is the fault of the Clinton Administration.  Funny for me to be blaming a Democrat, huh?  Fortunately, I'm no blind follower of political parties, unlike some here.  The Clinton Administration decided that the best way to help Russia was to get them into the market ASAP, thinking that a country with a free market will automatically slide into a democratic political process.  They were very wrong.  It's the other way around.  You need a sound, democratic political foundation in order to build a free market.  Without an established and experienced system of fair and balanced laws, guided by a principle of overall equality, any market will fail due to greed.  Richard Nixon actually saw this coming, tried to convince the Clinton Administration otherwise, but it came to nothing.

What should have happened was some sort of arrangement much like the Marshall Plan, whereby Russia's political process would be closely monitored and political advisors from the West would help to build a democratic system that fit Russia.  Any financial needs or obligations would be waived/deferred until such time as Russia was deemed stable enough as a political system.  The political process was the key.

What amazes me about the Clinton Adminstration was how they approached the whole economic issue with Russia.  They basically said, "Well, boys, if you just do like we do, you'll be fine,"  then promptly began showing Russia how the USA does business.  What these economic whiz kids forgot was that economics was as much  as product of culture as anything else.  Simply put, Russia was not ready for, nor needed, American solutions, but it desperately needed Russian ones.

Hoped you enjoyed that, Toad.  And don't worry, I won't ask you a question.  You're not too good at answering I've come to realize    ;)

[ 07-16-2001: Message edited by: leonid ]
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