Seagoon,
Long deployments not just for small, special, or support units any more. 8 to 12 month tours not going be the norm for large units.
Just from Carson, 2nd BCT looks to be staying 15 or 16 months total this time, and the 3rd Hvy BCT is looking at a 15 month tour - for their THIRD Iraq Tour, with only 9 months stateside dwell time. 3rd ACR moved to Texas from here in '06, but they will be due for a tour again soon at this rate, and I'm betting a long one.
That's from one post. Over the next couple months you will be hearing about a lot of Guard and Reserve units called up for their second deployment. If they do long tours on the ground, plus up to 6 months train up time, their tours could be 2 years total.
There's talk about longer dwell time and more leave and more pays, but it's all been said before. As you've said, most career military have seen this coming since the announcement of "the surge".