Author Topic: Gas Prices (Read 1163 times)

Charon · « **Reply #15 on:** May 14, 2007, 01:06:02 PM »

A lot of negatives have transpired in the produciton and distribution infrastructure to cause higher than usual summer peaks. The oil industry runs at capacity and has enough capacity to meet refining needs unless there is a major disruption(s). They are making money now, but that wasn't the case in the 1990s and may not be the case next year or next month should any number of political or economic things happen. FWIW the vast majority of the money comes upstream of refining, with the major oil companies increasingly getting out of any direct involvement with refining and marketing because they can be more trouble than they are worth.

It's also useful to pay attention to the speculators in the trading process that really make a killing and heavily influence the price volitility of a commodity that is traded like any other commidity. Have a dry summer and look at the price of corn -- high and not necessiarily exactly matching the "real" market environment. Panic, greed and herd mentality.

That said, the base cost of gasoline is linked to crude, and that price is linked to world demand. We use more motor fuel than anybody else, and a few better choicies like we made prior to the abnormally low gasoline prices of the 1990s would certainly help. Trade in that full sized truck that gets 10 mpg as a commuter car for an econobox (like we all had in the 1980s, if you remember) and demand will be reduced and prices will follow -- somewhat. Hell, the econoboxes today have more HP than the "sports" models had in the 1980s, beyond the obvious eurpoean sport and luxury automotive brands of the period.

Only somewhat effective though because in this first, demand driven crude shortage the growth in demand is coming from China and India, etc. which are now getting flush on our dollars leading to new car owners. Not a huge percentage, mind you, but with a population of 1.3 billion etc. a percent here or a percent there adds up pretty quickly. So, if you really want to cut gas prices stop buying all that cheap plastic crap from China or using service compaines that outsource to India.

Charon

Sting138 · « **Reply #16 on:** May 14, 2007, 01:24:01 PM »

Quote

Originally posted by Tango
I live here in Louisiana and know people that work in refineries down south. They will tell you they have been operating as fast as they can to try and keep up.

Now who is BSing who?

LOL I know its BS, In Port Arthur/Beaumont Texas the refineries there have storage tanks that are chock full of unrefined crude, gas, etc. How do I know? I worked in the refineries for the last 10 years. They also have the strategic petroleum reserve between Winnie and Port Arthur Texas which is also full of unrefined crude. This is all a ploy by the oil companies to fatten their wallets and we unfortunately are stupid enough to allow it to happen.

Odee · « **Reply #17 on:** May 14, 2007, 01:28:27 PM »

Rocket Science 101 - The more your gas milage goes up, so then will the price of gas at the pump in an inexorable exponential expansion of inflated self worth according to the Big Three and Fuel CEO's.

What ticks me off is that in 1970, Toyota had a car on the market that got 60 miles per gallon at highway speeds! SIXTY MILES PER GALLON!?!?! This was just before the fuel crunch of 71-72ish. Car didn't sell well, because the needle stopped at 85mph or 90mph.

Now here it is 30 plus years later and we're lucky to see 30 to 50 MPG?!?! WTF were these geniuses doing in between the last fuel shortage and now?

Shamus · « **Reply #18 on:** May 14, 2007, 01:28:29 PM »

Saw an interview of the CEO of Gulf Oil on CNN, this morning, he said the normal refinery profit on a gallon is 20 cents, right now it is 80 cents.

Now granted it was on CNN so he must be fibbing (thought I'd say it first)

shamus

Charon · « **Reply #19 on:** May 14, 2007, 01:36:46 PM »

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One of the most visible records in gasoline markets is the U.S. average retail price for regular gasoline. At $3.054 per gallon on EIA’s latest weekly retail price survey (May 7), this price is just a penny-and-a-half shy of the all-time record (in nominal dollars) of $3.069 per gallon set on September 5, 2005, about a week after Hurricane Katrina ravaged Gulf Coast oil production and refineries. Both of these prices, however, fall short of the price of gasoline in March 1981, however, if adjusted for inflation. Retail prices that month were equivalent to a current price of over $3.22 per gallon after adjusting for inflation (see http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/fsheets/petroleumprices.xls).

This is the third year in a row that the average U.S. retail price for regular gasoline has reached $3 per gallon at least once (besides the record set in 2005, it also reached $3 per gallon or higher during four consecutive weeks in 2006; see http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mg_rt_usw.htm). EIA has reported repeatedly in recent weeks on the causes of the price increase. Demand has been outpacing supply, causing gasoline inventories to drop from well above the average range to well below it (see http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/ weekly_petroleum_status_repor t/current/pdf/figure04.pdf). With gasoline inventories having ended their streak of consecutive declines last week, the question becomes how quickly, and to what degree, will gasoline prices soften.

According to EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, released yesterday, high prices are expected to encourage production of gasoline domestically and continue to attract imports. This, in fact, occurred during the week ending May 4, with gasoline production over 8.9 million barrels per day and total gasoline imports above 1.2 million barrels per day. At the same time, the four-week average for gasoline demand is now just 1.0 percent above year-ago levels, reflecting some slowing of demand growth from the typical trend in recent years. Increasing supply and slowing demand growth is expected to reduce prices slightly over the next several weeks. EIA projects a U.S. average retail price in the $2.90s during June and July, after averaging above $3.00 per gallon in May. This projection assumes no significant unplanned refinery outages or crude oil production losses.

Prices could rise back again above $3 per gallon in August, should demand at the end of summer surge, as it often does. Whether gasoline prices set a new record (in nominal dollars) next week is still in doubt. What is clearer is that gasoline prices are expected to remain at or close to $3 per gallon for much of the summer. Although many oil market analysts have talked about the potential for retail gasoline prices reaching $4 per gallon this summer, EIA does not expect the U.S. average price to get anywhere close to that level as long as the oil infrastructure remains largely unaffected this summer. This year is certainly shaping up to be one in which consumers will likely see high gasoline prices throughout the summer months.

Charon

BTW, Refineries are making 80 cents profit per gallon now because that is the market price for their product, set largely by entire layers of traders acting on the fact that we have very low supplies on hand and some disruptions in production as we start into a peak demand period. Now, it could be a refining conspiracy to shut down key assets to drive up prices, but since those companies are not making any of this money while their refining is down it would seem unlikely.

Charon

Tango · « **Reply #20 on:** May 14, 2007, 01:37:22 PM »

Quote

Originally posted by Sting138
LOL I know its BS, In Port Arthur/Beaumont Texas the refineries there have storage tanks that are chock full of unrefined crude, gas, etc. How do I know? I worked in the refineries for the last 10 years. They also have the strategic petroleum reserve between Winnie and Port Arthur Texas which is also full of unrefined crude. This is all a ploy by the oil companies to fatten their wallets and we unfortunately are stupid enough to allow it to happen.

Unrefined means you need a refinery to process it right? Guess that means we need more refineries.

Odee · « **Reply #21 on:** May 14, 2007, 01:45:58 PM »

Ever hear of the term "Aclimitization"? (my spellin is horrido)

Quote

This is the third year in a row that the average U.S. retail price for regular gasoline has reached $3 per gallon at least once (besides the record set in 2005, it also reached $3 per gallon or higher during four consecutive weeks in 2006; see

They are aclimating us for the sticker shock in short jolts of increasing frequency.

Even at $5 a gallon we'd be payin less than Europe does... A gallon of gas there would be around $15... for ONE gallon.

count your blessings you guzzlertards

Silat · « **Reply #22 on:** May 14, 2007, 01:52:00 PM »

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Originally posted by BigGun
Here in SF bay area, gas is around mid 3 for regular. Was just in GA and gas was $2.78. Part of the difference here is the tax, and part the special blend for CA gas. Other is probably screw job. It is what it is.

In OR, I would imagine a fair amount is to cover the cost to have someone else pump your gas. Seems like a law that just creates a bunch of low end jobs & inflates the price of gas. Not sure if I have been to any other state where you can't pump your own gas. Seems a bit silly.

Wrong. Washington is pump your own and has the same hi prices. Pump your own is a scam by the gas companies. Prices dont go down when you pump your own.

Sting138 · « **Reply #23 on:** May 14, 2007, 03:56:27 PM »

Quote

Originally posted by Tango
Unrefined means you need a refinery to process it right? Guess that means we need more refineries.

Nah.....

If you noticed I said they have storage tanks that are already filled to capacity with gasoline and other storage tanks with unrefined crude just sitting there. Meaning they have no where to put it and no need to increase production. They may increase production as we get into June to compensate for the increase in usage by vacationers. The term shortage is still a ploy to charge more $$ and fill their already fat wallets!

Its marketing BS I tell ya!!!

LePaul · « **Reply #24 on:** May 14, 2007, 04:38:32 PM »

Wanna lower the price of gas?

Check out how much each state taxes you.

Odee · « **Reply #25 on:** May 14, 2007, 05:14:52 PM »

Quote

Originally posted by Silat
Wrong. Washington is pump your own and has the same hi prices. Pump your own is a scam by the gas companies. Prices dont go down when you pump your own.

Yup... I remember when full service gas stations, (that's them ones where they check your oil, pump the gas, wash the windows, etc)... when the prices there was $0.25 a gallon high test.

Now it's $3.24 in Northern VA for low grade, and they don't even come out to take your money! You use the card or go inside the mini-convenience store and pay jackoff prices for crap. Then go and pump your own gas, check the air, fluids, wash windows... (unless you use their lousy high pressure shove the dirt around machine for another $10 bucks) and go blissfully on your way not even thinking about how screwed not only you are, but how many more people could have been employed to "Service" your car.

Bah! All you Gorboyz sicken me to no end.
*not you Silat... just get po'd at the course we allow ourselves to be led around on*

Charon · « **Reply #26 on:** May 14, 2007, 05:41:35 PM »

Quote

If you noticed I said they have storage tanks that are already filled to capacity with gasoline and other storage tanks with unrefined crude just sitting there. Meaning they have no where to put it and no need to increase production. They may increase production as we get into June to compensate for the increase in usage by vacationers. The term shortage is still a ploy to charge more $$ and fill their already fat wallets!

According to the Energy Information Administration our gasoline reserves are at near historic lows right now. What factual basis do you have for your position that this is not the case? The EIA is an independent government agency that I have worked with for over 7 years and they are pretty good about this stuff, not to mention the regular oversight by the FTC and congress (with many anti oil politicians just looking for a chance to be hero to the masses) to keep any "conspiracy" far from being so obvious would one exist.

If there are issues beyond normal supply and demand they would likley be "big picture" in nature relative to the FTC allowing too many mergers in the late 1990s. However, for once it's not OPEC doing something artifical to set prices as much as the fact that China and India are getting wealthy and starting to use more cars, trucks, energy and general transportation. And, the fact that 1973 was the RULE for modern life and the 1990s were the EXCEPTION that may or may not come back from time to time.

Charon

Odee · « **Reply #27 on:** May 14, 2007, 06:02:23 PM »

"Near historic lows"...

Now that's a laugh when we have a three year reserve stockpiled. Makes you wonder how man decades we had in storage before, doesn't it?

wooley · « **Reply #28 on:** May 14, 2007, 06:41:03 PM »

Quote

Originally posted by Odee
...Even at $5 a gallon we'd be payin less than Europe does... A gallon of gas there would be around $15... for ONE gallon...

Wrong - its high over there, but not that high.

A (US) gallon is currently about $6 - $7 in most EU member states. However the average European vehicle will probably do close to double the MPG of the average US vehicle so the costs probably balance out in the end. The high precentage of trucks and large SUV's on US roads will skew those figures - if you drive a sedan in the US and get somewhere close to 30mpg, you're paying much less than the average European.

eskimo2 · « **Reply #29 on:** May 14, 2007, 07:28:25 PM »

Quote

Originally posted by Odee
Rocket Science 101 - The more your gas milage goes up, so then will the price of gas at the pump in an inexorable exponential expansion of inflated self worth according to the Big Three and Fuel CEO's.

What ticks me off is that in 1970, Toyota had a car on the market that got 60 miles per gallon at highway speeds! SIXTY MILES PER GALLON!?!?! This was just before the fuel crunch of 71-72ish. Car didn't sell well, because the needle stopped at 85mph or 90mph.

Now here it is 30 plus years later and we're lucky to see 30 to 50 MPG?!?! WTF were these geniuses doing in between the last fuel shortage and now?

What car is that?