OK, after a night thinking about it more, I have a correction.
Getting the rounds to target is about TIME and DISTANCE. We're always thinking about the distance part of the equation, but I've been pointing out the role of time. In fact, I got so busy with the time aspect that I overlooked the role of distance in the straight on shot...
Here's what I mean:
Imagine that straight on shot again, but this time pay attention to the range. Acoording to Tony Williams, the Mk 108 30mm cannon had a muzzle velocity of 505 m/s, while the 13mm MG 151 had a velocity of 710 m/s. Now consider the guns range -- which is different than the range to target at the time of firing, since you are both in airplanes travelling hundreds of miles per hour.
OK, for simplicity lets make the planes flying at 280 miles per hour, which is 125 meters per second. Lets place the plane 288 meters ahead of you, having just clicked the AH range marker from 400 to 200. (Please let me ignore the difference between AH range in yards and velocities in meters -- this is hard enough already!)
The 13mm rounds are moving at 700 m/s. They will strike the target in 0.5 seconds, because in that time the target will have moved an extra 62 meters to make the total bullet flight distance 350 meters. But, in the same 0.5 seconds the 30mm round will still be 100 meters away, and it will take it another 0.25 second to reach the preset convergence DISTANCE. In that extra 0.25 seconds, the target will have flown another 30 meters, and the 30mm will miss. So, at speed of 280mph and range of ~300 yards, you'd need to set the 30mm cannon convergence 25 meters farther to get the rounds to hit nearly together ON THE TARGET. They will hit at different times, and at different map coordinates, but they will land nearly together on the target aircraft.
At very short TARGET RANGES, the rounds' flight times are so short that the time element doesn't matter nearly as much -- which is why it's easier to get 30mm hits up close. On the other hand, when the target is moving faster, the difference in convergence will need to be greater to get them both to hit.
Now on to turn fights. Here, the calculations get incredibly tangled by the target actually moving upward relative to the firing plane, the apparent size of the aircraft when viewed at angles, guns firing across the chord of the turning arc, the need to adjust convergence thinking about vertical position instead of the horizontal geometric plane the setting was designed for, and so on. Frankly, calculations just aren't worth it. Instead, understand the qualitative situation I outlined in the first post and adjust by the seat of your pants!