I would think that as a plane got real close to a CV group, most guns would train themselves on that target.
It doesn't always do that.
So ... with that, you should be getting shells going off behind you and on the sides of you ... not just in front. If the AI gunners always lead you properly, and using your schema, it would be ridiculously easy to defeat the flak and never fly into the "flak box" in front of you.
Well, it's not about easy or hard. It's about it being realistic.. Does it get better than having a realisticaly behaving flak umbrella? Does it have any downsides?
I think that is why HT has the plane in the middle of the box ... no matter what direction it's going ... and with the "random" shots being thrown into the box, you get the explosions all around you ... not just in front of you.
I'm not, and I don't think Furball is either, suggesting that the flak aim only ahead of the target. We're saying the flak box as it is ought to be centered not on the plane, but on where the plane would have been X time after the 5" salvo were fired, based on its velocity at the time the salvo was fired. Basicaly an extrapolation of its position substituting for the actual ballistics being modeled. As I mentionned though, this would effectively ignore the proximity fuse since the plane could fly through the shells' trajectory and not trigger any of them. Unless collision detection was calculated between the shells' and the target's trajectories, which is probably as likely to be too expensive. Like the terrain collision calculations are, to tell the flak whether the target's occluded.
I would think that the closer you get the smaller, the box should get (this is what currently happens), but the rate of random firing into the box should increase (not sure if that part is in the code) dramtically as you get closer to the target.
The increase of firing into the box should only be determined by how close you are getting to the target, and speed, and maneuvering should not have an effect on the rate of fire.
You mean like a doppler sort of thing?
But the current system does not take into account proximity fuses - if they were, we would not be seeing the flak bursts of shells completely missing the target?
Well, they're prox fuses, so we can't be asking for a changes to the flak model that wouldn't behave like them. That's what I mean

I'm not sure what you mean, but the flak bursts that miss are (I guess) simulating dispersion and human error..