So what do you oil dependant people think about this?

[storch]

We are not doing any harm to the planet whatsoever. We are only hurting ourselves, the planet can continue to live without us, it's in no way dependant on us or our well-being. However, we are totally dependant on this planet.

We will never run out of oil, that's a fact. Oil can be produced in many ways. Another fact is that oil will become very expensive. Perhaps much sooner than we think, nobody really knows when but it will happen. When that happens (difficult or impossible to determine exactly at which point) people like you and I will not afford a car. It could potentially crash the entire economic system, causing mass unemployment and loss in production. Lack of food, famine, disease, you name it.

The only way we have currently at hand, to limit or perhaps even nullify the effects of these facts, is to transfer to a sustainable way of life. Not for the well being of the planet, but for our own well being. The planet doesn't give a **** about us.

we are one good pandemic from being a former occupant.  barring massive skuzzification in industrial quantities we have more to worry about in the form of virus than any other potential threat facing humankind.

[2bighorn]

think things through lad, by anyone's figures there is enough oil readily available for between the coming 50-150 years.

now are we sitting idly by waiting for impending doom as we consume our way to the planet's core?  most likely not.  that is to say that there are cadre of people working on solving these potential problems. 

let's not bother discussing the massive coal reserves which by any measure far outweigh petroleum reserves and that coal could be utilized as a viable liquid fuel. 

lord forbid that we generate all electicity globally from nuclear fission and continue solving nuclear fusion as an energy source.  lastly by anyone's reckoning we are due for another viral pandemic.  as I'm sure a well read person like yourself knows the last one killed more people globally in 1918 than four years of european war did.  the combination of the two claiming some 200,000,000 fellow planetary inhabitants.

as I have stated often enough the planet is well able to shrug off the effects of humainty we ain't all that and a bag of chips.

Storch, you're businessman, you well know that if you have to switch to another product, a little planning ahead of time can mean difference between very painful and a little less painful transition. Perhaps and preferably, one with no pain at all.

[BTW]

See Rule #6

[storch]

See Rule #2

[E25280]

Here it is in simple math 
World Oil Reserves = 1,317.447 billion barrels / information from the  US DOE
WOR = 1,317,447 million barrels
World Oil Production = 80+- million barrels per day / from the US CIA

Time left to end of production (keeping use constant and no more huge discoveies)(China has seen huge increase of oil use in the last 5 years likewise so has India)

(1,317,447/80)/365= 45.118 years

At the rate of use today we will be out of oil in 45+- years. This may not happen but 20 - 25 years from now there could be great shortages

Smarty, tell me, of what use are oil reserves which we don't know about?

Sample link here of why the math of oil depletion is completely useless.  For those too lazy to click, it says Russia's proven oil reserves grew by 8% last year.

Here is one that describes a 30 billion increase in Venezuela's proven oil reserves.

Basically and simply stated, when we actually look for oil, we find it. 

Said another way, the same people who are telling you today that we will run out of oil in 40 years were saying the exact same thing about 40 years ago.

[BTW]

See Rule #2

[storch]

Sample link here of why the math of oil depletion is completely useless.  For those too lazy to click, it says Russia's proven oil reserves grew by 8% last year.

Here is one that describes a 30 billion increase in Venezuela's proven oil reserves.

Basically and simply stated, when we actually look for oil, we find it. 

Said another way, the same people who are telling you today that we will run out of oil in 40 years were saying the exact same thing about 40 years ago.

there you go confusing the youngsters with fact again.  where's MP3 when you really need him?

[2bighorn]

Sample link here of why the math of oil depletion is completely useless.  For those too lazy to click, it says Russia's proven oil reserves grew by 8% last year.

Here is one that describes a 30 billion increase in Venezuela's proven oil reserves.

Basically and simply stated, when we actually look for oil, we find it. 

Said another way, the same people who are telling you today that we will run out of oil in 40 years were saying the exact same thing about 40 years ago.

How does that help us and our dependency on foreign oil? Besides Venezuela is OPEC country. They artificially increase reserves time to time in order to rise their quotas (which all OPEC members are guilty of).
Russian reserves aren't so big, so increase of 8% doesn't mean much. Maybe 5 billion barrels or so.

The US oil shale deposits contain about 2,500 gigabarrels of recoverable oil and they already are pilot projects in place. Even so, we have to reach production levels of about 10-12 million barrels per day, that's a little over half our daily needs. the rest must be conventional oil needed for gasoline production and some hydrocarbons not found in oil shale. At first we can cover gasoline needs with domestic oil and about 25% imported oil, until we find the way of producing synthetic gasoline from hydrocarbons found in oil shale.

But we need to start moving now. There has to be political will as willingness of oil industry to reinvest big profits into something which won't necessarily be profitable for the first few years.

That would cover our needs for the time needed (say 80-100 years) to slowly transition to other energy sources.

[2bighorn]

there you go confusing the youngsters with fact again.

Facts? US consumes 30 billion barrels in a little more than 4 years. Russian 8% increase is less then what we burn in a single year (5 vs 7 billion).

[Leslie]

Interesting series of lecture videos.  Professors can sound cool to impressionable young people.  Most good professors are entertaining in one way or another, and they always have a story to tell or idea to espouse.  Sometimes they can be pretty kooky, but that's better than being overly authoritarian.  I've heard some good stories and theories from professors in my time.  I view the opinions as interesting, and something to question and get others' opinions about.

The real situation is complex beyond simple math.  He pretty much bases his premises on personal opinion though, when he stated industry always seeks to grow regardless of the consequences.  This is his opinion and not necessarily a fact.  He did make some good points that we do need to think about these things. 

The first scientific order of business, when someone presents a doom and gloom proposition, is to become very skeptical and ask questions.  If it's serious business, the scientist will write an article to be published in scientific journals.  If that is published there must be some credibility attached to it.  Even then it is open to scrutiny.

To me it looked like the prof was exaggerating things to make a point.  He's saying the simple math tells the whole story and that's all there is to it. 

He could be right and he could be wrong.  The math is correct, but the premise is based on continued growth at a certain percentage.  A hypothetical scenario.

What about politics?  Before anything would have a chance to be done, the government would have to underwrite it.  Would take some hefty evidence and convincing arguments to get something going in the pipeline.  Sorry but the lectures alone seem to be more philosophical than factual.  It is a darn good example of what exponential increase is though.

I had the impression he was over simplifying matters.  I'm fairly certain any question and answer session after the lecture would have yielded some skepticism from any older, non traditional students present.  Probably the first thing we need to be sure about is are we really up crap creek to start with?  How would we know, and what decisions could be made based on numerous ever changing variables?  Taking action would be costly and could be in the wrong direction.




Les


 

[FiLtH]

   I didnt watch it. But Im secure in my belief that milloins of years from now, WE will be the oil deposit.

[Baitman]

Sample link here of why the math of oil depletion is completely useless.  For those too lazy to click, it says Russia's proven oil reserves grew by 8% last year.

Here is one that describes a 30 billion increase in Venezuela's proven oil reserves.

Basically and simply stated, when we actually look for oil, we find it. 

Said another way, the same people who are telling you today that we will run out of oil in 40 years were saying the exact same thing about 40 years ago.

Hey you are very good... but do the math... 
For Russia
I used the new numbers but again 60,000,000,000 bbls as reserve
60,000,000,000 x 8% = 4,800,000,000 new barrels / 80,000,000 barrels used per day in the world = 60 days use

Venezuela = 80,000,000,000 barrels (in 2007) as reserve inceased to 120,000,000,000
30,000,000,000 / 80,000,000 = 375 days of world use.

Doing the math is the scary part. Realizing if we don't reduce our need for oil it is going to become VERY expensive.

Times are different than the 70's when we found huge deposits but now the world is burning so much a large deposit just doesn't make a difference in the end.

[Kermit de frog]

It's obvious many dramatic people here didn't see all the videos or didn't actually comprehend the transcript since many arguments they bring up have been covered and explained by the professor.

He explains the dangers of steady growth and also that steady growth won't stay steady forever with finite resources.

Go beyond oneselfs ego and just listen to the guy.

[Holden McGroin]

He explains the dangers of steady growth and also that steady growth won't stay steady forever with finite resources.

Steady growth won't be steady because there is chaos in the growth rate too.

The problem with math is that it is a perfect tool trying to predict a chaotic system with imperfect knowledge of the starting points.

It is the best tool we have, but by neccesity we use it imperfectly and get varied results. 

[angelsandair]

Yeah, I know. Ignorance is bliss eh?

I like this quote: "Ignoring facts does not make them go away."

Certainly the case with most people, including the majority of this community.

Interesting video, I got through about half the first one. I'm so tired right now, I cant do too much, I'll finish it tomorrow.