The recent (i.e. post economic meltdown) state polls have Obama leading in Ohio by like 10, Florida by 7 or so, and Pennsylvania by an unheard of 15 points. Each of these only have errors of +-4 or so... All of them put Obama over the 50% mark, too...
A lot of it is due to a raising in confidence of Obama to be commander in chief after the first debate (it was probably the first time a lot of "normal" people ever heard Obama speak at length about issues in a non-speech environment). A lot of the drop, too, is because the Palin bounce Mccain got has eroded almost completely: Internals of the polls say that Palin's approval rating has gone from like 55% down to the mid 30s.
So Mccain is basically back to where he was before the republican national convention, and a few points lower than that because of the economy being the primary issue instead of national security.
With only 32 or so days to go, Mccain is doomed unless something truly huge happens... I don't think Bush capturing Osama Bin Laden would even be enough to push Mccain over the edge. He can keep trying various day-to-day gambles on phony outrage or whatever, or try blanketing key states with fear-mongering ads... But I don't think it'd work. You can't fear monger when people are ALREADY AFRAID. Sure, that suburban housewife might be scared of that big black guy walking down her street, but that image doesn't matter if she's MORE scared about affording gas or paying her mortgage.Scare tactic only work when the public is reasonably calm, and that is certainly not the case.
Mccain realized this when he switched to "I am change" message (and picked Palin), but that was also doomed to fail unless Obama made some kind of mistake. Perhaps he was positioning himself as the change guy in case Obama screwed up, but let's face it: Obama is not going to make any mistakes. He's been running a tough campaign for more than a year, and he's made basically ONE mistake during that time (the "cling to guns and religion" comment). He's ahead by a lot, the country is talking about the issue he wants them to be talking about (the economy), and he's got the press friendly with him (even the conservative press, compared to Clinton, anyway).
Public opinion (and voting, even) has probably begun to solidify at this point. The size of the undecideds will shrink again after the second presidential debate, and unless something drastic happens the 3rd debate will likely change no-one's opinion. Obama will produce the turnout he wants because of his money and *gasp* his expertise in community organizing
McCain will find he has few friends left when his prospects for victory are grim.
Does anyone honestly think that Republican turnout will be high if Obama goes into the election with a 5+ lead in the polls? If the polls on election day look like they do today, then Obama wins by a landslide because turnout for the republicans will be terrible. If the polls are closer, say within 3 percent, then it'll be a lot closer. But so far there seems to be no reason to think the polls will tighten.
