Here's a copy & paste of the Propagation Newsletter from the ARRL:
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP029
ARLP029 Propagation de K7RA
ZCZC AP29
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 29 ARLP029
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA July 11, 2008
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP029
ARLP029 Propagation de K7RA
Another week, and still no sunspots. The three month moving average
for daily sunspot numbers that we began reporting toward the end of
cycle 23 seemed to suggest retrospectively that solar minimum
occurred last fall. The daily average for the three month period
centered on last October was nearly 3, or 2.967 to split some hairs.
This is an average of the 91 daily sunspot numbers from September 1
through November 30.
Following that low, November was 6.85, and between December 2007
through April 2008 the 3-month average drifted from 8.14 to 8.89.
With remaining cycle 23 spots becoming increasingly rare, and barely
any cycle 24 spots, this suggested solar activity was stalling out.
Then at the end of June, a further decline, when the 3-month average
centered on May dropped to 5.04.
Randy Crews, W7TJ of Spokane, Washington has an interesting
observation regarding a possible double-minimum between cycles. He
was looking at some charts of past sunspot cycles in W3ZZ's World
Above 50 MHz column on page 90-91 in the February 2008 issue of QST.
Randy wrote, ''I noted the average period from a cycle's peak
declining to its low is on average 7 years. So, linking that to our
current cycle's progress, things get interesting: If you count from
the 1st cycle 23 peak (April or July of 2000) we are at the 8 year
mark now and past due. However, cycle 23 had a second peak
November/December of 2001. We have not yet reached the 7 year mark
if you count from peak #2 and that would coincide perfectly with
Ken's article. Interesting enough, the NOAA propagation charts
predict this fall as being the real pickup''.
When Randy mentions ''Ken's article'', he is referring to Dr. Kenneth
Tapping of the Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory in
Penticton, British Columbia, the source of our daily 10.7 cm solar
flux numbers. Following a widely circulated false quote attributed
to Tapping, we made available his notes on the cycle minimum to
anyone who sends a blank email to SunspotMin@gmail.com. That offer
still stands, and to date over 1,100 copies have been dispatched to
readers who sent an email to that address.
Randy also mentions ''NOAA propagation charts'', but I suspect he
means tables of predicted smoothed sunspot numbers. Those can be
found at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/Predict.txt and on
page 8 at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1714.pdf.
So what do zero sunspots mean for HF propagation in mid-July? From
my home in Seattle, the path to Japan has a Maximum Usable Frequency
that varies from a low of 13.1 MHz at 1630z to a maximum of 16.8 MHz
at 0530z. To Hawaii, the lowest MUF is 11.3 MHz at 1200z to highest
of 17.2 MHz at 0500z. A further example is Texas to Brazil, with
MUF ranging from 6.4 MHz at 0900z to 20.8 MHz at 0200z. That is all
a very narrow range. With an average sunspot number of 100 for that
Texas to Brazil path, low of 18.2 MHz at 0900z to 29.7 MHz at 1730z
and 2100z, enough to support good 10 meter propagation.
Sporadic-e propagation on 10 and 6 meters generated more mail this
week.
Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia sent the
following report on July 4.
''Just a quick note to mention the 6M condx on June 27-28. Around
2000Z on the 27th the Es opening began on 50 MHz here.
''I had very bad luck getting any Europeans to answer my CQ and my
Euro footprint was pretty small to northern F, PA, southern G, and
EI. I worked a total of about 6 stations in the mentioned
countries. There were a few weak signals persisting past 2200Z
(heard MM0AMW).
''Most all of the activity was on CW, long live CW!
''Saturday morning, June 28, I turned on the radio to find loud
Italians all over the 50.080-50.100 segment at 1320Z. I worked
quite a few in the I-4 call areas. There was a loud IZ1 who
couldn't hear 3/4 of the stations calling him and I heard a weak I7.
''I worked a total of about 15 stations over 45 minutes or so and
again there was surprisingly much more activity on CW than phone.
This time, I did get a few CQs answered. Also heard were S57RR,
9A1CCY, and a 9A6, but the pile-ups were big and unruly on the first
2 guys. K1HTV near DC missed the S5 due to two callers out of turn.
I would have persisted, and not let the ''breakers'' in if I were the
DX''.
The most recent one also quotes:
The autumnal equinox, the beginning of the fall season, is less than
60 days from now. I would like to suppose that cycle 24 will be in
full swing by then, but we have no way of knowing.
We are still getting regular reports from readers about the
continued sporadic-E activity on six and ten meters.
Going back a few weeks, Mark Lunday, WD4ELG of Hillsborough, North
Carolina commented ''Amazing the stuff that happens at the sunspot
lulls. Actually gives calmer conditions under which to observe
phenomenon like gray line prop without the geomag disturbances''.
That's true, and I can recall a couple of years when there was a
fair amount of sunspot activity, but month after month we witnessed
severe geomagnetic storms, making HF bands nearly useless,
especially at higher latitudes.
Back on July 7 at 0210z Mark accidentally switched to 12 meters and
heard FO5RH (French Polynesia) calling CQ on CW. This was 90
minutes after Mark's local sunset. They exchanged S5 signal
reports.
Two days later on July 9 at 2335z, George Pituras, W8KQE of North
Olmsted, Ohio (EN91) worked CT9HZE (Portugal) on 6 meters CW, when
George was running 100 watts into an omnidirectional loop antenna.
The next day he worked Utah on six, completing 48 states worked
using the same loop. He hopes someday to confirm Alaska and Hawaii
on six. He signs his email, ''Six meters forever!''
Doug Phillips, W7RDP of Sammamish, Washington reports that on July
12 he and a group known as PNW QRP used the call K7S for an annual
outing to the Bowman Bay area of Deception Pass State Park on
Fidalgo Island. (48.416 deg N, 122.65 deg W, see
http://tinyurl.com/5m23qg). In addition to HF, Rod Johnson, WE7X
ran 3 watts on 6 meter CW and SSB into a halo antenna 15 feet above
his picnic table, and worked several Southern California stations in
the Los Angeles and East Mojave Desert area.
With all this sporatic 28 mHz and 50 mHz DX...something is definitely up.
We should see new Cycle 24 sunspots in the next few weeks, if ny by Mid-October.
Since I am a BIG 10M fan, I need to get my Yaesu fixed ASAP. I also need to get the 3 element Yagi and 6 element Quad back in the air!
GL
73
ROX
