Author Topic: Oil  (Read 973 times)

Offline bj229r

  • Platinum Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 6732
Re: Oil
« Reply #30 on: July 24, 2008, 06:05:37 AM »
First ones a photoshop. 

Dunno about the second one.
Yah, thought occurred to me as well...but it's pretty farn funny anyhow! The ones lower, nearer the front look such
Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large numbers

http://www.flamewarriors.net/forum/

Offline Mr No Name

  • Silver Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1835
Re: Oil
« Reply #31 on: July 24, 2008, 06:25:02 AM »
1st pic is not a photoshop at all but it is also not ANWR, It's Prudhoe Bay it is, like ANWR in the north to northeastern coastal part of the state
Vote R.E. Lee '24

Offline Urchin

  • Platinum Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 5517
Re: Oil
« Reply #32 on: July 24, 2008, 06:37:37 AM »
They grow caribou out of the ground up around there? 

Is it a nuclear power plant in disguise? 

Offline Mr No Name

  • Silver Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1835
Re: Oil
« Reply #33 on: July 24, 2008, 07:21:22 AM »
The photo has been enlarged that is why it looks awful... http://www.msunderestimated.com/CaribouNoImpact.jpg That is a better quality shot, there is a little uneven terrain and several of the caribou are lying down.  This same photo was on CNN 2 days ago and they assured the audience that it was not a photoshopped item.

Another shot:  http://www.alaskanenergyresources.com/Content-Public/Photos/Caribou-in-Prudhoe-Bay/Caribou-in-Prudhoe-Bay-4.jpg

And another:   http://www.geocities.com/TheTropics/Shores/1100/PrudhoePics/caribou.jpg


Last:  http://www.accentalaska.com/permenant/prudhoe/MedRez/042_065.jpg
« Last Edit: July 24, 2008, 07:36:03 AM by Mr No Name »
Vote R.E. Lee '24

Offline Rolex

  • AH Training Corps
  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3285
Re: Oil
« Reply #34 on: July 24, 2008, 08:50:18 AM »
Charon,

You're saying that a station owner makes $0.40 on a 20 gallon sale of $4.00/gal gasoline after 2% cc merchant fee? That doesn't seem right.
Five hundred customers per day (one customer every 3 minutes, 24 hours per day) at 20 gallons, $4.00/gal each is:

Total sales: $40,000
Oil distributor and gasoline taxes: ($39,000)
Dealer gross sales: $1,000
cc merchant fee @ 2%: ($800)
Operating gross: $200

Dealer daily operating gross sales of $200 before wages, facility rental/mortgage, equipment, utilities, insurance, taxes? And that is a mega station with 500 customers per day.

Are you sure about that?
-----------

On a separate note, It's nice to see the Prudhoe Bay wells and pumping stations are still working after more than 25 years... :)
I designed all of the extreme temperature high voltage switches, cast coil transformers and substations used throughout the entire project.

Offline lazs2

  • Radioactive Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 24886
Re: Oil
« Reply #35 on: July 24, 2008, 08:53:40 AM »
I know a few station owners.. they say they make a lot of money on gas.

lazs

Offline Mr No Name

  • Silver Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1835
Re: Oil
« Reply #36 on: July 24, 2008, 09:57:55 AM »
Impressive, Rolex!  Lazs, my family owns 3 gas stations, typical mark-up is about 8/10ths of a cent per gallon.  The better the location, the more you can mark it up though.
Vote R.E. Lee '24

Offline Charon

  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3705
Re: Oil
« Reply #37 on: July 24, 2008, 10:29:27 AM »
Quote
You're saying that a station owner makes $0.40 on a 20 gallon sale of $4.00/gal gasoline after 2% cc merchant fee? That doesn't seem right.

2-4 cents would be a good net profit estimate per gallon depending upon their volume/contracts or if they are a marketer (distributor) as well as retailer, etc. There can be exceptions to the rule, but the market is generally very competitive and you try to match the lowest price in a specific market to keep your volume up.

There will be periods where perhaps you can get a few more cents for a few more days, but having those signs with the big price numbers clearly in view makes retail gasoline pricing perhaps the most transparent of any industry leading to little opportunity to manipulate the local market. Might a bunch of stations decide to keep retail prices higher after wholesale prices drop (not formally in an FTC antitrust sense but through "I won't drop until so and so drops") -- sure. But, there is always a "so and so" with a better wholesale deal who decides to drop and pull your customers away so they can get more volume at their sites and in the stores where the real profits are. Riding the "high" prices usuall lasts only days -- maybe a week or two -- and the "gouging" would still likely be less than a typical profit margin on just about anything else you buy.

Similarly, when some pipeline gets disrupted etc. and wholesale rack prices shoot through the roof you have to keep your retail prices down as best you can to match whoever happens to be sitting on a better supply deal at the time and decides to break even at the pump and get volume through the consumer sticker shock that follows where people become even more price sensitive.

Now, in the store you can make 30+ percent margin on your shelf goods. You get some of the ATM fee. You get a good margin on the Car Wash and foodservice/coffee/beverage program. Lottery tickets, etc. When gas was at $2 per gallon you made more on gasoline. Not as much as the 1990s, but enough to be useful.

Gasoline is largely the one-stop-shop volume generator -- get them on the site and hope they go into the store. Make some money when you can, and try to match you competitor making as much margin as you can without losing volume. There are price modeling companies that can allow a retailer to perhaps charge a few more cents than the lowest in the market without losing volume depending upon such things as the side of the street, time of day and other offers you have at the site. Maybe 3-4 cents above the lowest price. For a while major brand loyalty allowed that as well -- Shell, BP, Chevron, etc. But, price is king in petroleum and the transparency assures the consumer that there will usually be a high degree of competition.

Quote
I know a few station owners.. they say they make a lot of money on gas.

I'd like to talk to them. E-mail me their contact info. I know a few hundred who collectively own tens of thousands of stations who don't. Gasoline has moved from being a primary profit center to a volume generator and that has been the case for about a decade or so now. Gasoline still is a primary source of revenue, but not profits. The goal is to not lose money, and perhaps make a few cents most of the time.

I know some larger distributors who earn a very good living moving gasoline to retailers, not at a huge profit margin even there but we're talking millions of gallons and without the CC fees, of course. One actually races a modified Sea Fury and has a few AT-6s (as well as kids flying in the Air Force). Still not a ticket to mint money realtive to other areas.

Charon
« Last Edit: July 24, 2008, 10:37:41 AM by Charon »

Offline Fulmar

  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3936
      • Aces High Movie Database
Re: Oil
« Reply #38 on: July 24, 2008, 10:52:09 AM »
I'd like to talk to them. E-mail me their contact info. I know a few hundred who collectively own tens of thousands of stations who don't. Gasoline has moved from being a primary profit center to a volume generator and that has been the case for about a decade or so now. Gasoline still is a primary source of revenue, but not profits. The goal is to not lose money, and perhaps make a few cents most of the time.
Charon
Why does it matter?  What lazs posts is the truth.  He's often cited as an expert witness in court.  From patent cases to civil suites, even divorce!
In game callsign: not currently flying
Flying off and on since Warbirds
Aces High Movies available at www.derstuhl.net/ahmd2 - no longer aceshighmovies.com - not updated either

Offline Hap

  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3908
Re: Oil
« Reply #39 on: July 24, 2008, 11:05:19 AM »
Why does it matter?  What lazs posts is the truth.  He's often cited as an expert witness in court.  From patent cases to civil suits, even divorce!

Lazs is WAY better than E. F. Hutton.

;)


Offline lazs2

  • Radioactive Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 24886
Re: Oil
« Reply #40 on: July 24, 2008, 02:29:39 PM »
charon..  I know a few.. maybe they are not telling me the truth.  2-4 cents a gallon.. how many gallons a month are the station owners you know selling?

lazs

Offline Charon

  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3705
Re: Oil
« Reply #41 on: July 24, 2008, 04:46:18 PM »
Quote
charon..  I know a few.. maybe they are not telling me the truth.  2-4 cents a gallon.. how many gallons a month are the station owners you know selling?

That's all over the place. Some might do 200,000 per year, others a million and others like a Costco maybe 6 million or more per year. An average might be 600,000 to 1 million or so today. And 2-4 cents is considered to be a fairly good margin today. In fact, I may still be caught somewhat in the $3 per gallon mindset and not the $4 per gallon reality of the past few months. 2 cents might be generous today, since I tend to trend towards being conservative in my estimates. But, you do have cash customers and debit in the mix that eliminate the credit fees (though handling cash has costs and debit does have fees of its own). As an average gasoline represents about 70 percent of a store's revenues but only about 30 percent of its profit. Some will be on the upside of that average and some on the downside. You will have sites within an single multi-unit company that are on all sides of the equation.

I know all the people in this article personally, and they will survive. It's tough for them but they have economy of scale and profit diversification. In fact most of the people I know will survive since they tend to be larger operators who have done most of the right things in the past 10 years or so.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23904590/

I don't know any of these people, but there are more than a few like them:

http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=610122

The repair shops are a dying bastion of the single site direct dealer. They can generate a good living in good times. The same for the smaller mom and pop c-store retailers, in good times, or in rural markets lacking much direct competition.

The reality is probably somewhere in between both articles. Which is the point I made to the WSJ, CNN and AP reporters (which went ignored :)) Times are tough. The industry has been forced to be efficient before now. Most should survive, since the least competitive exited in the late 1990s. We haven't seen a dramatic drop in station count this year. However, if $4 per gallon continues more of the marginal opators will be exiting and 2009 might show more dramatic losses.


Charon
« Last Edit: July 24, 2008, 04:54:21 PM by Charon »

Offline Rolex

  • AH Training Corps
  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3285
Re: Oil
« Reply #42 on: July 24, 2008, 06:06:35 PM »
I'm sorry, Charon, but you are creating confusion because of the terms you are using. In business, margin and profit and net profit are all different. The information in your earliest post conflicts with your later posts and gives a completely different image. If you mixed these terms with the media as you did here, I can understand why they reported it as more dire than you meant. I'm not criticizing your data, but suggesting you proofread your terms more carefully.
« Last Edit: July 24, 2008, 06:09:10 PM by Rolex »

Offline Charon

  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3705
Re: Oil
« Reply #43 on: July 25, 2008, 10:11:44 AM »
In my first post I used the term net instead of gross. Simple typo. Of course, I am more careful when I'm not rushing out a post on a game BBS where such errors have no real consquence.

And, as I think I noted, margin was not the area where there was "confusion." It was if the current environment is causing an accelerated number of closings. Is the loss of 3000 stations this year all that diffferent from previous years back to 1998? Not really. Will next year show a bigger bump? Hard to say but it certainly would not be surprising. BTW, I also sent them historial data back 10 years relative to the drop in station count which is about as clear as you can get. Not rocket science. WSJ even made a chart out of it, I believe.

But, they tended to lead with "3000 stations closed!" Yeah, well so what's new there? Typical considering how news stories are assigned and the need to have some drama and punch in the reporting.
« Last Edit: July 25, 2008, 12:33:50 PM by Charon »