JUST HOW MUCH MORE 'CHANGE' DO YA THINK YOU CAN STAND?

[Maverick]

Cap1,

Stop thinking of the relationship of the 4.5% to 100% of the overall employment rate. 4.5% was the total unemployment before. In that case the 4.5% is actually 100% of the unemployed.

Now the change in unemployment to the total of employable workforce to 5% is not just .05 of the total it's actually 10%+ of the 100% of the unemployed that had been counted as 4.5% (now 5%) of the entire population of employable people. It's not just straight addition and subtraction of the entire population.

The change is .05 of the entire employable population but is a 10%+ change in the population of the unemployed. Those are 2 different populations not just one.

[Nashwan]

Specifically, deregulation in 2001 of the electonic investment platform.

That's not since 2006, but the whole "speculation" thing is wide of the mark anyway. Have you seen the CFTC report released a few days ago?

The Task Force’s preliminary assessment is that current oil prices and the increase in oil prices between January 2003 and June 2008 are largely due to fundamental supply and demand factors. During this same period, activity on the crude oil futures market – as measured by the number of contracts outstanding, trading activity, and the number of traders – has increased significantly. While these increases broadly coincided with the run-up in crude oil prices, the Task Force’s preliminary analysis to date does not support the proposition that speculative activity has systematically driven changes in oil prices.

The imbalance between scarce supply and growing demand, and expectations that this imbalance will persist in the future, have led to upward pressure on oil prices and greater market reactions to any actual or perceived disruptions in available supply. Under such tight market conditions, it is often the case that only large price increases can re-establish equilibrium between supply and demand. Consequently, large or rapid movements in oil prices are not inconsistent with the fundamentals of supply and demand; such price movements, by themselves, do not indicate that prices have become divorced from fundamentals. Moreover, if speculative positions, rather than fundamentals, were pushing prices upward, then inventories would be expected to rise. To date, there is no evidence of such an accumulation; in fact, known inventory levels actually have declined.

The Task Force’s preliminary analysis also suggests that changes in the positions of swap dealers and non-commercial traders most often followed price changes. This result does not support the hypothesis that the activity of these groups is driving prices higher. The Task Force has found that the activity of market participants often described as “speculators” has not resulted in systematic changes in price over the last five and a half years.

The entire reason for the increase in oil prices is encapsulated in one graph in the report:

The extracts and image come from www.theoildrum.com , but the entire report is at http://www.cftc.gov/stellent/groups/public/@newsroom/documents/file/itfinterimreportoncrudeoil0708.pdf

[SD67]

We really need Charon to chime in with the oil stats. My take on the growing economic crisis is pretty much the same for you guys as it is for us here is Oz.
The recessions we are facing are related directly to three things. Reduced personal disposable income, a rapidly increasing outgoing international cash flow and increased government spending.
People have less money to spend at the store because they are having to pay more for fuel. Because they have less to spend they are more likely when they do to spend it on the less expensive imported goods.
The number of locally produced items is rapidly disappearing and we are becoming dependant on China to supply most of what we take for granted for our day to day life. Most of our factories no longer exist, you will have a hard time even finding their sites anymore. They have been bought by Chinese interests and when they were, they packed it all up put it on a ship and moved the entire operation to China, taking everything except the employees. We no longer have the capability to make that thing in this country. If we wanted to restart it, we'd have to purchase the machinery, and guess what? We'd probably have to either retool and remanufacture it all from scratch or buy it from China!
We have all this to deal with and yet our Governments are insisting on spending BILLIONS of dollars supporting military actions in the Middle east combating a problem we helped to create?
We're going under. No ifs no buts. It is just a matter of time. When the final blow comes the politicians are going to say "this came out of nowhere!" and it was staring them in the face since the 1970's

[mietla]

maybe i was missing something?

4.5 + .5=5?

or is there new math?

no. It is a real math. No further comment.

[mietla]

Take 5 -10%= 4.5   (duh!)   So there is your 10% increase!!

no the base is 4.5, A change to 5.0 is a 0.5

so...
it's been 50+ years but hear me out.

a change (0.5) over the base (4.5) times (I know

• will confuse many), so I'll replace * with times 100 %
  
  0.5/4.5 TIMES (like multiplied) 100 = (still) 11.11(1) %
  
  I wonder haw many know what the parenthesis mean in
  
  11.11(1) %
  
  P.S. Math does not hurt. It it good for you

[mietla]

Once you UNDERSTAND a concept, (any concept) you don't have to remember any formulas. ever. You just derive them as you need them.

I'm afraid (more accurately terrified) that they do not teach this train of thought anymore.

"Same outcome" trumps all. If some in the class (and obviously there will be some), can't grasp the CONCEPT of, say, calculus, none in the class will be allowed to know it (not even talking about mastering it).

Once you are denied a certain level of knowledge/understanding, it is unlikely that you'll be hungry for more.

Thus, a perfect society.

[mietla]

Am I banned? the silence is killing me.

[mietla]

Oh, I know, the ignore thingie kicked in

[SkyRock]

P.S. Math does not hurt. It it good for you

Apparently for you, english is painful.

[Holden McGroin]

i thought we were already out of that debt before bush got appointed?

Oh hell no.  We were still deep in debt, we were not just borrowing so much.  The budget was balanced for the last few years of Clinton.

Let's see... somewhere it says...

The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States;

So apparently it is Congress, not Clinton or Bush who tax, spend, and borrow.

So it was the Congress at the time who balanced the budget, then blew the lid off of it later.

[mietla]

Apparently for you, english is painful.

Like in English, you mean, right?

[mietla]

And to answer your question directly, it was not as easy as my other languages but I hope I can finally get my point across in it.

It is my fourth language, and I was talking about a grade 0 math.



P.S. Just to impress me please answer me in Swiss. (you can find a web translator somewhere)

[Donzo]

And to answer your question directly, it was not as easy as my other languages but I hope I can finally get my point across in it.

It is my fourth language, and I was talking about a grade 0 math.

Never mind him mietla.  He is incapable of actually contributing something substantial to the conversation.  He's better suited to the drive by "look, I'm better than you" posting.

[mietla]

well yeah. Usually I just smack the mosquitoes ...splat, but sometimes it is fun to catch one (those that feasted at your body are heavy and REALLY SLOW), pull his legs and wings (I usually leave one wing intact) apart, and then let him go (or speak as it is here). Fun to see him take off.

SkyRock, your typing skills are impeccable. I do not speak web-easeee  but for what it is worth... <S>
 on one wing.

P.S. I hope I did not mis-type anything here. I'll look like a complete idiot if I misspelled something like english or "i" (including web-easeee). Could not find this thing on the web.

Be gentle AH buddies.

[JB88]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hey folks.......facts are facts!!
This has to make you think a little bit, if not, then keep your blinders on!
 
George Bush has been in office for 7 1/2 years.  The first six the economy was fine.
A little over one year ago:
            1) Consumer confidence stood at a 2 1/2 year high;
            2) Regular gasoline sold for $2.19 a gallon;
            3) the unemployment rate was 4.5%.
            4) the DOW JONES hit a record high--14,000 +
            5) American's were buying new cars, taking cruises, vacations o'seas, living large!...

 

But American's wanted 'CHANGE'!   So, in 2006 they voted in a Democratic Congress & yep--we got 'CHANGE' all right. In the PAST YEAR:
            1) Consumer confidence has plummeted ;
            2) Gasoline is now over $4 a gallon & climbing!;
            3) Unemployment is up to 5% (a 10% increase);
            4) Americans have seen their home equity drop by 12 Trillion dollars & prices are still dropping!!!!
            5) At least 1% of American homes are in foreclosure.
            6) as I write, THE DOW is probing another  low~~11,100--
            $2.5TRILLIONDOLLARS  HAS EVAPORATED FROM THEIR  STOCKS, BONDS & MUTUAL FUNDS INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS!

                 
YEP , IN 2006 AMERICA VOTED FOR CHANGE!...AND WE SURE AS HELL GOT IT!!!....NOW  OBAMA, the DEM'S CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT--AND THE  POLLS SAY HE'S GONNA BE 'THE MAN'--CLAIMS HE'S GONNA REALLY GIVE US CHANGE!!....JUST HOW MUCH MORE 'CHANGE' DO YA THINK YOU CAN STAND???!!!!???

uh.  please tell me that you are kidding about gas being 2.19 a gallon a year ago so i can read along further without laughing my tail off.