S-Ossetia seems to want the old "bear" more than Georgia. Maybe out of fear. It's got no chance to stand on it's own legs. It's mostly living on subsistence farming and tunnel fee (between Russia and Georgia). The size of the country is very small (3.900 sq kilometres, - a little bigger than Luxemburg, and 1/25th of Iceland) and the inhabitants were some 100.000 (?), and unlike those mentioned, S-Ossetia is not sitting between economically well-off blocks. Greenland and the Faroe islands would be vastly better off as independent nations IMHO, with their odd 40.000-50.000 souls for the sheer reason of natural resources, yet these are not independent yet....
My guess is that they get gobbled by the old bear....
Take a look at this, from a Wiki cut-and-paste:
Restoration of independence
Merab Kostava, Soviet era dissident and political activist for independent GeorgiaOn April 9, 1991, shortly before the collapse of the USSR, Georgia declared independence. On May 26, 1991, Zviad Gamsakhurdia was elected as a first President of independent Georgia. However, he was soon deposed in a bloody coup d'état, from December 22, 1991 to January 6, 1992. The coup was instigated by part of the National Guards and a paramilitary organization called "Mkhedrioni". The country became embroiled in a bitter civil war which lasted almost until 1995. Eduard Shevardnadze returned to Georgia in 1992 and joined the leaders of the coup — Kitovani and Ioseliani — to head a triumvirate called the "State Council".
In 1995, Shevardnadze was officially elected as a president of Georgia. At the same time, two regions of Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, quickly became embroiled in disputes with local separatists that led to widespread inter-ethnic violence and wars. Supported by Russia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia achieved de facto independence from Georgia. Roughly 230,000 to 250,000 Georgians[33] were expelled from Abkhazia by Abkhaz separatists and North Caucasians volunteers (including Chechens) in 1992-1993. Around 23,000 Georgians[34] fled South Ossetia as well, and many Ossetian families were forced to abandon their homes in the Borjomi region and move to Russia.
Recent years
Main articles: Rose Revolution and 2008 South Ossetia war
In 2003, Shevardnadze (who won reelection in 2000) was deposed by the Rose Revolution, after Georgian opposition and international monitors asserted that the November 2 parliamentary elections were marred by fraud.[35] The revolution was led by Mikheil Saakashvili, Zurab Zhvania and Nino Burjanadze, former members and leaders of Shevardnadze's ruling party. Mikheil Saakashvili was elected as President of Georgia in 2004.
Following the Rose Revolution, a series of reforms was launched to strengthen the country's military and economic capabilities. The new government's efforts to reassert Georgian authority in the southwestern autonomous republic of Ajaria led to a major crisis early in 2004. Success in Ajaria encouraged Saakashvili to intensify his efforts, but without success, in the breakaway South Ossetia. These events along with accusations of Georgian involvement in the Second Chechen War,[36] resulted in a severe deterioration of relations with Russia, fuelled also by Russia's open assistance and support to the two secessionists areas. Russian military bases (dating back to Soviet era) in Georgia were evacuated, with the last remaining base in Batumi handed over to Georgia in 2007.[37]
In July 2008, hostilities started between Ossetian militia and Georgian armed forces. This led to a full-fledged attack of Georgian armed forces with artillery and MLRS fire[38] on Tskhinvali region (South Ossetia) on Friday August 8. The Russian government claims that 1,600 Ossetians were killed in this attack. One day later, Russian troops entered South Ossetia through the Roki tunnel, claiming support of Ossetians and Russian peacekeepers already stationed there. Russian military forces entered South Ossetia and Abkhazia launching a series of air strikes against Georgian forces. Due to the intensive fighting in South Ossetia there were many disputed reports about the number of casualties on both sides, targets which had fallen under aerial attacks, troop movements and the current front line between the Georgian and Russian-Ossetian combat units.[39] On August 12, Russian President Medvedev met the President-in-Office of the European Union, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, and approved a six-point peace plan. Late that night Georgian President Saakashvili agreed to the text.[40] The translation of the six points is by the Times, from a French language document[41] provided by a Georgian negotiator.[42] Sarkozy's plan originally had just the first four points. Russia added the fifth and sixth points. Georgia asked for the additions in parentheses, but Russia rejected them, and Sarkozy convinced Georgia to agree to the unchanged text.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia_(country)Now, according to this, it roughly appears' that even back in the '90's, they've had some trouble, ethnically. The two northern provinces were apparently trying to push any ethnic Georgians' out, but it seems' to me that they could, or would, only do this during times' of disorder and civil war. It looks' like during peacetime, they didn't mind the Georgian's living in the North.
They're only taking advantage of Russian interference in Georgian affairs to try to breakaway. IMO, if they had no backing from Russia, none of this would be going on.
