Author Topic: Fuel Costs  (Read 1030 times)

Offline batch

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Re: Fuel Costs
« Reply #15 on: August 21, 2009, 04:04:43 AM »
while 66p goes into the UK treasury......... everyones gettin rich while youre just gettin hosed

which if I read correctly....... the tax is set to go up again in January...... shame
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Offline nipper

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Re: Fuel Costs
« Reply #16 on: August 21, 2009, 04:10:07 AM »
while 66p goes into the UK treasury......... everyones gettin rich while youre just gettin hosed

which if I read correctly....... the tax is set to go up again in January...... shame

Yep, also there was a duty freeze on fuel in this years budget which means it'll probably go up double next time round.

Offline Angus

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Re: Fuel Costs
« Reply #17 on: August 21, 2009, 06:08:17 AM »
I just did some tractor work and still run on frying oil  :devil
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Offline Nashwan

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Re: Fuel Costs
« Reply #18 on: August 21, 2009, 06:13:05 AM »
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which if I read correctly....... the tax is set to go up again in January.

It's actually going up in September and January.

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Yep, also there was a duty freeze on fuel in this years budget

Duty went up in April, it's going up in September and again next April. And when the government temporarily cut VAT, they put duty up at the same time to offset the VAT cost. VAT is going back up in December, the increased duty will of course remain.

So between November 2008 and April 2010 we will have had 4 increases in fuel tax.

As to the future price of oil, OPEC now controls the market in a way it hasn't since the early 80s. Other countries are producing at maximum, OPEC has cut production by millions of barrels since last summer. Don't expect low prices again until there is a major drop in oil consumption. That's not likely in the next few years, unless we go in to a major depression.
« Last Edit: August 21, 2009, 06:19:55 AM by Nashwan »

Offline SEraider

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Re: Fuel Costs
« Reply #19 on: August 21, 2009, 01:11:46 PM »
Correct WW. Opec "only" controls something like 40% of the market and they operate at max or close to max capacity most of the time. Its the market and speculators that sets the prices.


If I may take this further, the speculators are tied into the richest figures in the world, Soros, Rockefeller and British/Dutch royalty. 

Our country was able to grow and become powerful because of the relative low cost of energy.  Industry bloosomed that created wealth.  It was not until the late 90's that these figures began to consolodate ownership of personal property and smaller businesses through legal loopholes and inflationary measures which serve as a hidden tax.

$100,000 per year in salary is worth less now than it was 5-6 years ago becuase of skyrocketing real-estate, food and energy prices.  Essentially, with the collapsing dollar the have nots are finding it increasingly difficult to get ahead by hard work alone.  Only if you have a very special talent you could get ahead.

I believe the manipulation of gas prices is to curtail industry in our country and rob us of our wealth.  This is not a Left-Right issue, just a "top of the pyramid" issue.

I didn't mean to go off tangent - however this I believe is a symptom of a larger national issue for us all in N. America and even abroad.
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Offline gyrene81

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Re: Fuel Costs
« Reply #20 on: August 21, 2009, 05:18:26 PM »
It was not until the late 90's that these figures began to consolodate ownership of personal property and smaller businesses through legal loopholes and inflationary measures which serve as a hidden tax.
That was happening in the 70s sir...if you remember there was a big stink about how Hughes and Rockefeller used the magic of tax shelters and investment loopholes to keep from paying taxes...now corporations do it legally due gradual tax law changes made over a 25 year span...the obvious loopholes were closed while much more lucrative loopholes were opened.

The only way we in the U.S. will every see gas prices the same level they were in 1975 is if the feds reinstitute "regulation", but that won't happen because no one wants to see it...when the oil companies and the government realized they could make billions on oil without actually incurring higher crude costs...the prices started going up. What you see as the cost of a barrel of oil is not the actual cost to the oil companies...it's the speculative value based on world wide production and demand (and some other b.s. thrown in there for good measure to make it look scientific).

Anyone ever notice that when a refinery is damaged due to some "accident" gas prices for all companies goes up even though that refinery belonged to just one? Then the cost of repairing that refinery gets added on to the price of petroleum products even though the oil company made enough profit to build a new refinery...yet not a single oil company has built a new more efficient refinery in 20 or 30 years...why is that?
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Offline Nashwan

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Re: Fuel Costs
« Reply #21 on: August 22, 2009, 05:15:20 AM »
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I believe the manipulation of gas prices is to curtail industry in our country and rob us of our wealth.

Fuel prices went up because the oil supply didn't. It's as simple as that. The world boomed, oil demand grew, supply remained the same.

The only countries with enough excess capacity to increase production are in OPEC, Saudi Arabia in particular. They chose to keep production down in order to keep prices up.

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What you see as the cost of a barrel of oil is not the actual cost to the oil companies...it's the speculative value based on world wide production and demand (and some other b.s. thrown in there for good measure to make it look scientific).

The price of oil, like any other commodity, is the price the customer is willing to pay. The seller wants to sell for as much as possible, the buyer wants to pay as little as possible, the final price is one they both agree on.

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Anyone ever notice that when a refinery is damaged due to some "accident" gas prices for all companies goes up even though that refinery belonged to just one?

That's supply and demand. Supply, demand and price are all inextricably linked. If supply goes up the price goes down to increase demand and/or reduce supply. If demand goes up the price rises to increase supply and/or reduce demand.

If enough refineries go down and supply can't meet demand, then you have 2 options. Rationing by price or rationing by queue.

In a free market you get rationing by price. The price goes up which drives down demand until it's in line with the new, reduced, supply situation.

When governments intervene you get rationing by queue. The price remains the same, so does demand, but there isn't enough to go around, so you have to wait your turn.

Rationing by price is a much better system. The higher price encourages increased production. The continued availability enables people to make rational decisions about whether they can cut back or not.

Rationing by queue is a poor alternative. People waste time queueing. Rather than reducing consumption they are encouraged to hoard, making the situation worse. People who desperately need fuel can't get it, those who have little need will still try to buy in case they need it in the future.

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Then the cost of repairing that refinery gets added on to the price of petroleum products even though the oil company made enough profit to build a new refinery

No, oil companies sell fuel for as much as they can, regardless of costs.

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yet not a single oil company has built a new more efficient refinery in 20 or 30 years...why is that?

Because oil refineries are expensive and it's cheaper to upgrade existing refineries than build new ones. US refinery capacity has increased over the last 15 years.

On top of that US oil production is decreasing. As oil has to be imported, it's just as cheap to import refined product. Refineries can be run cheaper abroad with lower labour costs and environmental standards.

The US has had excess refinery capacity for more than a year now.

Offline batch

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Re: Fuel Costs
« Reply #22 on: August 22, 2009, 06:17:31 AM »
a mosquito just bit a moose in wisconsin.......... fuel prices will have to go up now
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Offline SEraider

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Re: Fuel Costs
« Reply #23 on: August 22, 2009, 06:41:00 PM »
The price of oil, like any other commodity, is the price the customer is willing to pay. The seller wants to sell for as much as possible, the buyer wants to pay as little as possible, the final price is one they both agree on.

I'll just start with this point you made.

The customer is not willing to pay, more like unwilling necessity of staying afloat.  What I mean by that is that most of our national infrustructure is built around family vehicles to get to point A - B.  There is very little else in mass transit that makes it efficient to get to point A - B.  Other than say NY city where mass transit is the easiest to get to A-B.  The roads there are too full and the "demand" to get to A-B is mass transit and some walking.

If you have a business, you are in a position to continue your business via unwilling necessity.  The other alternative is to shut down? No, you have to stay afloat and your margins get hit in a bad economy, sales drop and your way of life is harder to maintain. 

The oligarchy drive prices up by speculation and manipulation of what you call supply, they make the money they make through a transfer of wealth from middle class to upper wealth.

This is not helpfull and this is why US wealth per person had suffered in the last 40 years and will continue to do so unless true regulation against oligarchy takes place.

If you have a chance, I like your rebuttal on this point.
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Offline gyrene81

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Re: Fuel Costs
« Reply #24 on: August 22, 2009, 11:04:38 PM »
Fuel prices went up because the oil supply didn't. It's as simple as that. The world boomed, oil demand grew, supply remained the same.
Actually without U.S. involvement in a foreign war the demand for oil in the U.S. went down and the economy boomed...that's public record.

The only countries with enough excess capacity to increase production are in OPEC, Saudi Arabia in particular. They chose to keep production down in order to keep prices up.
There are others outside of OPEC but Saudi Arabia tends to dictate production rates based on it's decisions.


The price of oil, like any other commodity, is the price the customer is willing to pay. The seller wants to sell for as much as possible, the buyer wants to pay as little as possible, the final price is one they both agree on.
Uh wrong...the seller sets the price based on supply and consumer demand...the consumer usually has the option to bargain based on quantity except in the case of commodities where the price is based on speculative future value...in the case of gasoline, most of the price at the pump is taxes (state and federal).


That's supply and demand. Supply, demand and price are all inextricably linked. If supply goes up the price goes down to increase demand and/or reduce supply. If demand goes up the price rises to increase supply and/or reduce demand.
You didn't question the laws of economics did you? Take for example luxury items...low demand...little true value...high supply...yet cost remains high. The system is flawed and doesn't work...if it did GM and Chrysler wouldn't have had to file bankruptcy and Hummer would still be a U.S. owned product...domestic beer wouldn't cost 3 times more than it should and foreign corporations wouldn't own Anheuser Busch or Miller.

If the U.S. refineries are more efficient and have increased their capacity then gas prices wouldn't fluctuate when one goes down since the rest should be able to handle the output..demand doesn't go up when there is a refinery accident.


In a free market you get rationing by price. The price goes up which drives down demand until it's in line with the new, reduced, supply situation.
The only reason demand decreases is by improved gas mileage the actual number of cars on the road has steadily increased...has nothing to do with the price of gas.
You watch...when gas is no longer needed in the U.S. oil prices will skyrocket to compensate for the shortfall in demand.



Rationing by price is a much better system. The higher price encourages increased production. The continued availability enables people to make rational decisions about whether they can cut back or not.
Hmmm...I thought the oil producing countries dictated the amount of production...and that the prices went up when production was decreased to lower demand.


No, oil companies sell fuel for as much as they can, regardless of costs.
Because oil refineries are expensive and it's cheaper to upgrade existing refineries than build new ones. US refinery capacity has increased over the last 15 years.
On top of that US oil production is decreasing. As oil has to be imported, it's just as cheap to import refined product. Refineries can be run cheaper abroad with lower labour costs and environmental standards.
The US has had excess refinery capacity for more than a year now.
So there is no logical reasonable basis for fuel costs to increase when there is an accident at a U.S. refinery since the U.S. has excess refinery capacity and they are importing pre-refined product that isn't affected by the loss of a U.S. refinery.


Brilliant!!!
« Last Edit: August 22, 2009, 11:30:49 PM by gyrene81 »
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Offline Stalwart

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Re: Fuel Costs
« Reply #25 on: August 22, 2009, 11:26:45 PM »
Look at those gas prices....
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Offline Urchin

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Re: Fuel Costs
« Reply #26 on: August 23, 2009, 07:57:26 AM »
Fuel prices went up because the oil supply didn't. It's as simple as that. The world boomed, oil demand grew, supply remained the same.



You begin your argument from a flawed assumption. 

True demand for oil did not go up.  All that happened was speculators with no use for oil jumped into the mix and artificially increased demand. 


Offline SEraider

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Re: Fuel Costs
« Reply #27 on: August 23, 2009, 12:55:38 PM »
Look at those gas prices....
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Please repost image.
« Last Edit: August 23, 2009, 01:02:24 PM by SEraider »
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Offline Nashwan

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Re: Fuel Costs
« Reply #28 on: August 23, 2009, 01:08:53 PM »
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The customer is not willing to pay, more like unwilling necessity of staying afloat.

It doesn't matter why the customer is willing to pay, only that he is.

Just to make something clear. Anyone selling will try to sell for as high a price possible. Oil, second hand car, house, whatever. When you come to sell you sell for as much as you can.

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The oligarchy drive prices up by speculation and manipulation of what you call supply, they make the money they make through a transfer of wealth from middle class to upper wealth.

Certainly. Only understand who has the power to control oil prices; The Saudis and one or two other OPEC countries are the only ones with excess capacity. Everyone else pumps oil as fast as they can.

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This is not helpfull and this is why US wealth per person had suffered in the last 40 years and will continue to do so unless true regulation against oligarchy takes place.

How do you tell a sovereign foreign government how much they must invest in their oil fields, and how much oil they must pump?

You can try, but they are going to act in their own interests, not yours. And high oil prices suit Saudi Arabia.

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Actually without U.S. involvement in a foreign war the demand for oil in the U.S. went down and the economy boomed...that's public record.

US oil consumption increases over time:



Note that recessions cause drops in oil consumption, but that US oil consumption flatlined from 2004 despite the booming economy.

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There are others outside of OPEC but Saudi Arabia tends to dictate production rates based on it's decisions.

There are plenty of oil producers around the world. Most of them produce oil as fast as they sensibly can. Only a few countries, principally Saudi, have been deliberately restricting oil supplies over the last few years.

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Uh wrong...the seller sets the price based on supply and consumer demand...the consumer usually has the option to bargain based on quantity except in the case of commodities where the price is based on speculative future value.

You can equally say a buyer pays a price of his own choosing. The truth is that if the seller sets his price too high he doesn't sell, if the buyer makes his offer too low he can't buy.

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in the case of gasoline, most of the price at the pump is taxes (state and federal).

In the US? No. The EIA maintain a list of the component cost of gasoline at http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/gdu/gaspump.html

Over the last 9 years the highest proportion taken by taxes was in December 2001, when gasoline cost $1.09 a gallon and taxes made up 38.7% of the total.

The low point was June and July 2008, when gasoline cost over $4 a gallon and taxes made up less than 10%.

Currently taxes make up about 16% of the cost of gasoline.

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You didn't question the laws of economics did you? Take for example luxury items...low demand...little true value...high supply...yet cost remains high.

What luxury products are you talking about? Understand that "value" is what people value a product at, not a measure of usefulness. I may think that a pair of jeans with some designer's name printed on them are no more valuable than any other pair of jeans, but other people disagree. The value then becomes what those other people are prepared to pay.

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The system is flawed and doesn't work...if it did GM and Chrysler wouldn't have had to file bankruptcy and Hummer would still be a U.S. owned product...domestic beer wouldn't cost 3 times more than it should and foreign corporations wouldn't own Anheuser Busch or Miller.

Why?

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If the U.S. refineries are more efficient and have increased their capacity then gas prices wouldn't fluctuate when one goes down since the rest should be able to handle the output.

Gasoline prices don't fluctuate when one refinery goes down. They did fluctuate in the aftermath of hurricanes Katrina and Rita, which between them closed 23% of US refinery capacity.

The effects of Katrina lasted a long time. Other refineries put off maintenance to keep up production, causing shortages for the next couple of years when they finally had to undergo maintenance.

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The only reason demand decreases is by improved gas mileage the actual number of cars on the road has steadily increased...has nothing to do with the price of gas.

Look at the chart I posted above. US oil consumption growth stalled as prices began to climb. US consumption fell heavily in early 2008, before the recession really struck.

When prices are high people reduce consumption.

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Hmmm...I thought the oil producing countries dictated the amount of production...and that the prices went up when production was decreased to lower demand.

No, prices drop when consumption decreases, unless production is also decreased.

Look what happened last year. Oil consumption dropped rapidly from the summer, oil fell to less than $40 a barrel. It only climbed back because OPEC cut production so much.

Markets work in a very simple way. If you can't sell, you cut the price until you can. Or you take the product off the market. Doesn't matter if you are selling your old car, your house or a barrel of oil.

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So there is no logical reasonable basis for fuel costs to increase when there is an accident at a U.S. refinery

Not if it only affects one refinery. If it means extra safety standards that affect every refinery then of course a single incident could.

Extremely local price affects might be felt from one refinery, too. If you live 1 mile from the refinery and it goes down, it might take a day or 2 to get supplies from another refinery. If your state has some weird gasoline blend mandated by the state government, it might take even longer to produce it at another refinery. But the effect will be purely local.

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You begin your argument from a flawed assumption.

True demand for oil did not go up.

Demand for oil increases with economic growth. All those people in China who used to be peasant farmers, and now have cars, increase oil consumption. All the trucks taking supplies and finished goods to and from Chinese factories require oil. So do the construction machines building their cities, and the quarrying and mining machines producing the raw materials.

Economic growth brings higher oil consumption.

Here's a graph of the rate of growth in the world economy, and in the production of oil:



As you can see, oil production tracks economic growth. But look at what happens since the 2001/02 slowdown. Until 2004 oil production kept pace, but with the economy booming it grew only 1% in 2005, 0.5% in 2006 and actually fell in 2007. And that's with world growth stronger than seen over the past 20 years.

Offline Urchin

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Re: Fuel Costs
« Reply #29 on: August 24, 2009, 05:14:21 PM »
Look up the amount of oil transactions using the same years as your graph. 

The "increase in demand" was mostly artificial.   

The past couple of "bubbles" (tech, real estate) created an incredible amount of wealth with no basis in reality, and all of it didn't cease to exist when the bubbles "popped".  People needed somewhere to park all that money, and oil was it. 

The simple theory of supply and demand doesn't work in this case.