This thread is now a bit off the original what if, but very many good points floating around.
Now we are in the possible arena of operation "sea lion", and since I have studied this quite much, I'll throw in some cents
For starters, get some facts straight. First in favour of the British, then the Germans.
1. The RN had complete superiority at sea. There is no way that the Kriegsmarine could have taken on to them
2. The English channel is quite lively with strong currents. The weather also plays quite a role.
3. At the easiest time of currents and weather, the daylight is the longest, since it would be mid-summer.
4. The RAF showed at Dunquerque, that the German Luftwaffe did not manage to achive enough air superiority to stop the RN in what it was doing.
5. The RN basically is NOT where the channel is at the narrowest. The main base at Portsmouth is 200 kilometers away. Or is Scapa Flow the main base? That one is 1.000 kilometers away. The distances would be more, - this is the air route!. With top speed cruise and ships at readiness (boilers ready) that would still be almost 4 hours from Portsmouth, and 20 hours from Scapa Flow. In case of emergency, the force "H" at Gibraltar would have to sail more than 2.000 kilometers, or about 2 days, and the speed is destroyer speed at max,- for practical speed you will have to multiply with 2. (Cruise 14 knots).
6. At the right moment, the channel can be calm, and the crossing is only 36 kilometers at the narrowest. Even a trawler will do it in 2 hours. In short, even a crossing of tugs doing 5 mph would be executable in darkness. Early August would allow this with ease.
7. Night operations are the best playground for fast E-boats as well as Destroyers. Germany has a force of both.
8. Germany has a significant force of Paratroopers. (The one that was crippled on Crete a year later). Airborne transport could secure key positions under the cover of darkness to help with the beach landings and the advance inland.
9. While the RAF and the RN are a real threat, they'd have to come out of their dens and fight in a scenario which would be planned for just exactly that. With a focus of stopping the channel crossings and delivering air cover for the navy as well as engaging into operations related with the army, the RAF would have it's hands full dealing with the German fighter sweeps.
10. I forgot ze German bomber fleet
How about bombing Porsmouth at dawn, Same with Scapa Flow (from aircraft based in Denmark), and then harass the RAF at dusk on their own fields.
11. I also forgot the U-Boats. They would not need to be anywhere except around Britain. A pack ambushing the RN as it would rush in from 3 directions (Gibraltar, Scapa/east coast and from the west) to secure the channel. If Britain falls, there is no need for them to be in the Atlantic anyway.
12 The bluff. Put the British on their toes with an attack on an odd place. Bomb Newcastle at night perhaps? Just the same as the allied did when executing operation Overlord.
So there you go. I guess more points could be made though.
Anyway, what I make of it always gives the same outcome. I think the Germans could have pulled off a landing and made a hell of trouble. After all history tells us that the crossing to Normandy in 1944, covering some 4 times the distance of the planned German invasion was pulled off without the whistle being blown before being too late. And the Allies (Airborne) were already there!!! Same goes with the ill-fated battle of Arnhem, where the allies managed to get more than a thousand aircraft to the target without an interception. And when one ponders on the distances in question, the channel is really not such a big place, just as the Germans showed the British when they drove their Battlewagons through the channel and got away with it. So, in short, I am sure they could have managed a landing and a temporary foot-hold.
And there it ends. The Germans would not have peace in the air, a clear supply-line, and no chance in tackling with a man Royal Navy. History also tells us how the RN reacted in a worst case scenario. They did go completely suicidal if needed. And you would only need a single destroyer to get through the German barrier to cause unimaginable casualties. Then there is the problem of getting the Panzers across. The key to success of all the German Blitzkrieg was the Harmony of air superiority, close support, and Armour. On British ground they would have had none.
So, my cents go to the Brits
