Oil spill webcam, 5000 ft bellow the sea

[RTHolmes]

personally, in terms of the ecosystem in the gulf I dont see it recovering to March 2010 state for 50-100 years, if ever. however the BP spill is only a small part of that.

even after the spill is stopped and the cleanup operation completed, the massive demand for oil internationally (but primarily from the US) combined with dwindling inshore and shallow water reserves mean that expansion of deep water drilling is inevitable. given the vast reserves under deep water in the gulf that expansion will continue in the gulf. given the difficulties of working at these depths further well spills are inevitable. spills from shipping will also increase as overall oil production activity expands. even if the US were to extend the moratorium on deep water drilling indefinitely, there are other states with drilling rights in the gulf who will (and are currently) expanding their own deep water drilling operations.

oil production isnt the only (some would say not even the biggest) threat to the gulf ecosystem. the effects of hypoxia and eutrophication from runoff into the gulf are already pretty bad. given the expanding world population and therefore demand for food, food production will have to increase. increased production means increased runoff and hypoxia. not only is this expansion due to increased acreage farmed, but more intensive methods. there will be more runoff due to the area farmed, but the amount of runoff per acre will also increase, leading to potentially devastating hypoxia effects.

sorry its not a very cheery outlook, but I think its a realistic one.

[Eagler]

I agree with most of that except the part where you state the largest oil spill in US history is only a small part of the gulfs problems.
The gulf issue is only a part of our economic mess but it is quickly becoming a huge factor in its future.
Don't believe we have exhausted all land based oil but the greenies are pushing us deeper and now want zero drilling while other countries (can you say Brazil/Soros) drill even deeper. As bad as the spill is, stopping drilling is worse and is 100% political imo.
LA, MI, AL and FL are hosed. They had extreme unemployment before the spill - this will push the numbers into unsustainable and possibly a unrecoverable scenario via a domino effect. It is just the latest event that spells the end of a way and level of life I always thought would be possible in the US of A for the average joe.

[RTHolmes]

not trolling here but the largest US oil spill so far was the Lakeview gusher - 9m barrels.

as for the economics of the US gulf coast there were long term problems before the spill came along, some of the causes of which would certainly stray into Rule #14 area. its worth bearing in mind that the gulf coast has profited immensely over the years from oil extraction, to use a coupla cliches "nothing lasts forever" and "all good things must come to an end."

[AKH]

The spill directly impacts only two industries: fisheries and tourism in four states.

The total gross state product in 2005 for Louisiana was US$168 billion, placing it 24th in the nation. Tourism and culture are major players in Louisiana's economy, earning an estimated $5.2 billion per year.   Greatest income is derived from the petroleum and gas industries.

Tourism accounts for 3% of GSP.  You can expect a similar or smaller figure for the fishing industry.  Petroleum and gas will remain the primary source of income for this state. Don't expect the deep sea drilling moratorium to last very long.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates that Mississippi's total state product in 2006 was $84 billion. On August 30, 2007, a report by the United States Census Bureau indicated that Mississippi was the poorest state in the country.

The primary industry has always been agriculture.

Alabama is part of the largest industrial growth corridor in the nation.  The state has heavily invested in aerospace, education, health care, and banking, and various heavy industries, including automobile manufacturing, mineral extraction, steel production and fabrication. According to the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis, the 2008 total gross state product was $170 billion

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Florida in 2007 was $734.5 billion. Its GDP is the fourth largest economy in the United States.  The major contributors to the state's gross output in 2007 were general services, financial services, trade, transportation and public utilities, manufacturing and construction respectively. 23.2 million tourists visited Florida beaches in 2000, spending $21.9 billion. In 2009, fishing was a $6 billion industry, employing 60,000 jobs for sports and commercial purposes.

For this important state, tourism also accounts for about 3% of income, fisheries less than 1%.  Furthermore, the East coast of Florida should experience no or minimal impact from the spill.

That's four states out of 50, one of which if pretty important to the economy of the nation as a whole, two of which are middle of the field. However, all four of these states generate the bulk of their income from industries other than tourism and fishing.

So, yes, it's an environmental disaster, but it's not the economic disaster that you paint.  In fact, the whole thing is pretty insignificant when compared to Hurricane Katrina.

[RTHolmes]

did a little googling and came across this, which almost exactly sums up my position, well worth a read (Fig. 3 is particularly interesting):

The Dangers of Overreacting to the Deepwater Horizon Disaster



edit: nice analysis there AKH.