Author Topic: Singularity. Is it possible? When?  (Read 2731 times)

Offline moot

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Re: Singularity. Is it possible? When?
« Reply #15 on: February 14, 2011, 07:52:23 PM »
We'll know it's self aware when it tries to kill us when trying to switch it off.
Anthropomorphic.  Our self-preservation is evolutionary and not inherent to AI.

Moore's law as KgB points out is only part of the basis for the singularity.  Singularity which can mean various things, because there are various branches of "Singularitarians" and associated perspectives.  The most popular is Kurzweil, in part because he's made the how (not so much the why) of his vision of the Singularity so accessible.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IfbOyw3CT6A
He's since made many updates to this boilerplate talk describing the Singularity.  He's got a website that chronicles all the things that pave the way to what he expects is the singularity as he sees it.  He's got two movies released to the general public fairly soon.  Be warned that Kurzweil's kinda special in the nutty sense - one of the things he looks forward to is being able to be some kinda transgender ballerina.  You see this in more or less of a cameo in the below Do you want to live forever? documentary.

Vernor Vinge, who coined the term Singularity, has a different vision.  

A number of other people contribute to the Singularity meme from different (and sometimes unexpected, to average people) domains.  E.G. the "Methuselarity" contends a similar exponential series of event centered on curing aging.
http://www.sens.org/sens-research/research-themes
The man who made SENS a popular reality
His 20min talk at TED
A longer talk given at Singularity University

There's many more, variously extreme or credible or down to earth.  There is little doubt that technological progress is accelerating (e.g. few people know that one of Intel's top men predicts chips commonly embedded in human bodies within a decade or two), and that more forward looking needs to be done in terms of policy, culture, and science.  
http://longnow.org/
http://lifeboat.com/ex/main
http://singularityhub.com/
http://www.acceleratingfuture.com/michael/blog/
http://hplusmagazine.com/
...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity

Overall this is still a pretty marginal "scene" due to how much of a paradigm shift it means for average people.  It forces people to deal with some fundamental things that have mostly been completely unquestioned, taken for granted, for basically all of history - except in science fiction.  Random E.G. robotics-enabled utopia (and apathy) in Dune

Or indefinite lifespan (not inability to be killed).  Or post-scarcity - how will the transition play out, and what are the economical and political consequences in the near term and in the long term?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity#See_also
« Last Edit: February 14, 2011, 08:13:15 PM by moot »
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Offline phatzo

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Re: Singularity. Is it possible? When?
« Reply #16 on: February 14, 2011, 08:04:57 PM »
Moot it looks like you're quite the sci-fi fan, one sci-fi writer that really captured me was Issac Asimov and the way his books could be read into one another and make better reading if you don't read them in the order they were published as long as you start at the I Robot collection of short stories. From that point the robots and foundation series are intertwined and the future of humanity is controlled by AI so as to conform to the laws of robotics including the zeroth law. Freaky stuff when you get your head around it.
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Offline moot

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Re: Singularity. Is it possible? When?
« Reply #17 on: February 14, 2011, 08:11:06 PM »
Read them all as a kid.  I'll have to go back to em again, I forgot most of them.  I read all of the foundation series over one summer - "one of those summers" where I was forced to stay with an old aunt who's idea of fun was setting the table exactly like she wanted to, and not a minute late, practicing church chorus, etc.

I've literally exhausted SF's most quality authors.  I'm starved for good SF with both good old space opera, plain simple interstellar/dimensional exploration, etc but all in touch with hard-realism .. Not much of this nowadays, be it books, TV, or big-time movies.
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Offline Sonicblu

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Re: Singularity. Is it possible? When?
« Reply #18 on: February 14, 2011, 08:45:32 PM »
As far as engineering our Dna so we can live forever it looks like they have found the scrip errors that  causes the dna to half life itself causing us to age. It seems that if they can figure out how to stop that from happening immortality might be possible to the point where a tragic accident takes a life. Anyway alot of variables.

Offline moot

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Re: Singularity. Is it possible? When?
« Reply #19 on: February 14, 2011, 09:02:00 PM »
Yep that's only one of the causes of aging.  See the first SENS link in my first post.

On self-aware AI: I don't think that's such a big deal.  What usually happens with "sacred" or "special" things, is that AI will eventually reach and then surpass these milestones, and when this happens, people's reaction is more like "well, it was nothing special".  See autonomous cars, automatic translation (for now only available for english/spanish) in compact devices (e.g. cell phones), such a thing as "invisibility" cloaks (metamaterials, fairly recent development), and so on. 

So what's required to have self-aware AI?  An AI construct that can account for the parts of itself that are involved in its computational ability.  There's nothing more special about this than there is for human computation (ie neurology) to do it, because human computation is entirely a physical process.  It's just a much much more advanced system of computation.  It has nothing about it that's supernatural.  The real question will be, after AI meets and beats human computational performance, what the soul is, and if there is one.  Because the most penetrating tests we have (that I know of) so far are Turing tests.  Those only measure how human-like something is, how able it is to fool a human's sense of humanity.  Of course we'll know what the early builds will be like - what makes em tick - but beyond that, once AI starts to build itself the way we're about to build our own evolution (biochemistry etc), we won't have that insight into AI the way we would while we'd still have a hand in building AI.

Self-awareness, metacognition, all these things are considered special mostly because people don't understand them and don't see any other instances of it in anywhere else in nature.  But that doesn't mean that something like AI couldn't do and/or outdo it.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2011, 09:21:33 PM by moot »
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Offline Anaxogoras

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Re: Singularity. Is it possible? When?
« Reply #20 on: February 14, 2011, 09:31:59 PM »
You've not heard of the Turing test then?

The Turing test is where everyone begins on the question of AI.  Whether you find it convincing is another matter.

I'd turn that around and say that Searle is making a pretty bizarre leap suggesting that intelligence is restricted to C,H,O,N based lifeforms. specific atoms having some kind of hidden link to higher level human function, sounds like homeopathy to me :rolleyes:

You're making a straw-man argument Holmes.  I'll discuss this stuff further if you refrain from that.

The basic point is that different kinds of atoms and molecules have different kinds of properties.  For example, some are conductors and some are insulators.  Some molecules exhibit polarity, and others do not.  We could make a very long list of properties by which we can differentiate classes of atoms and molecules.  Therefore, it's an open question whether consciousness and self-awareness, as completely naturalistic properties, are restricted to only some kinds of atoms and molecules.

Anyway, that's what he thinks.  I don't necessarily share his views (mostly I don't), but it seemed like an appropriate question to bring up.
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Offline moot

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Re: Singularity. Is it possible? When?
« Reply #21 on: February 14, 2011, 09:47:51 PM »
More to the point, Palef doesn't show how Turing contestants, so far, have defied the CHON conjecture.  If I understand what he's saying.
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Offline bozon

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Re: Singularity. Is it possible? When?
« Reply #22 on: February 15, 2011, 02:51:12 AM »
As far as engineering our Dna so we can live forever it looks like they have found the scrip errors that  causes the dna to half life itself causing us to age.
That is not an error - that's a feature.
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Offline FireDrgn

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Re: Singularity. Is it possible? When?
« Reply #23 on: February 15, 2011, 09:30:49 AM »
That is not an error - that's a feature.

"a feature"  that's philosophical is it not?
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Offline Anaxogoras

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Re: Singularity. Is it possible? When?
« Reply #24 on: February 15, 2011, 10:03:26 AM »
"a feature"  that's philosophical is it not?

No.  You need death and new generations to have evolution.  No evolution = no adaptation = extinct.
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Offline FireDrgn

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Re: Singularity. Is it possible? When?
« Reply #25 on: February 15, 2011, 01:02:10 PM »
I dont understand your reply and i would like to.       We do have death. and we have new generations.  and this feature does play a part in that.     Evolution can't design a feature or an error and either  claim is
 philosophical. 

How is death a requirement for evolution?

You can not claim NO evolution in your argument.  Simply put your argument does not allow for any other options yet we are alive. Therefore no evolution is not a valid argument. You would have to concede design for your argument to be valid.   
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Offline Anaxogoras

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Re: Singularity. Is it possible? When?
« Reply #26 on: February 15, 2011, 01:38:24 PM »
Ok, and I'm not sure I understand your reply. :D

Let me expand on the point, and then we'll see how you respond then.

Of course it is true that evolution does not design anything.  The adaptive features that organisms exhibit are a result of causation, not design or purpose.  But not all evolution is adaptive.  Bottle-necking, geneflow, and mutation all cause evolution that isn't necessarily going to increase the fitness of an individual or a species.  What leads to adaptive evolution is natural selection, and as a biology teacher of mine pointed out, natural selection is not "selection for," it is "selection against."  That is, predation and disease kill off the organisms that are less fit, and there's a small probability that the ones who are left over survived because of an accident of evolution that happened to be adaptive.

But there are a number of things that have to be true for selection to be adaptive.  There has to be genetic difference among individuals.  They have to have different fitness (a different phenotype), and the difference in fitness has to have been caused by the genetic difference.  Only under those conditions will natural selection cause adaptation.

Now, the role of death is that death is necessary for genotype frequency to change over time, and a change in genotype frequencies in a population is necessary for evolution and adaptive change.  Without death, the rate of change of genotype frequencies in a population would dramatically slow.  Moreover, competition for resources might become a serious issue that itself could threaten a species with extinction.  So, a slowing rate of change in genotype frequencies slows the rate of adaptive evolution and scarce resources means that a population would be vulnerable to whatever new selective force nature could throw at it: they die or even go extinct.

It's no accident that the most widespread animal phylum, arthropoda, reproduces and dies at an incredible rate.  We humans try very hard to eradicate some of them and they always have some new trick for survival.  The long life spans of some mammals are kind of an oddity in the animal world, but think of the stable environmental conditions that are necessary to make it possible.  You could wipe out an entire generation of insects and no big whoop; do the same to humans and it takes decades to recover.

Then there are some animals that are "programmed" to die after mating, even some that are relatively intelligent, like octopus and squid.  You can think of genetic change as a kind of arms race between species, and if it's advantageous to die after reproducing, then competitors that do not will be adaptively out-gunned.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2011, 01:44:56 PM by Anaxogoras »
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Offline trax1

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Re: Singularity. Is it possible? When?
« Reply #27 on: February 15, 2011, 06:37:46 PM »
Speaking of evolution I just read this story about a little girl in Asia was born with 12 functional fingers & 14 functional toes, could be our future.

http://www.comcast.net/articles/news-odd/20110215/AS.Myanmar.Fingers.and.Toes/
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Offline moot

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Re: Singularity. Is it possible? When?
« Reply #28 on: February 15, 2011, 06:41:25 PM »
IIRC it's the other way around, as far as toes go: the toes shrinking from the pinkie side.  The big toe's what's most useful, IIRC esp. for running.
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Offline trax1

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Re: Singularity. Is it possible? When?
« Reply #29 on: February 15, 2011, 06:44:50 PM »
The spare big toe she has almost looks like it would be good for climbing things like a monkey, in the pic that's what her foot looks like, just like the foot of a monkey that's used to grip as they climb.
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