Author Topic: Argentina is not alone  (Read 2697 times)

Offline mthrockmor

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Re: Argentina is not alone
« Reply #90 on: February 12, 2012, 10:54:22 AM »
Conspiracy theory, yes and that's how I intended it. I've discussed and debated this for 20+ years and when it comes down to a growing field in economics it's a rough choice for them. A choice they cannot win but to jump to insults. And I am not saying you are insulting me. About ten years ago I had an economist storm off a stage when given his Faustian options. His first response was to ask about my tin foil hat, Mel Gibson's movie had just come out.

The field of economics has convinced itself and now trying to convince the world that they have this down to an exact science just like the laws of physics, algebra, chemistry, etc. Literally, there is no more guessing about how humans will respond to inputs or changing environments, they have it absolutely nailed down just like A+B=C.

Their claim they have this nailed to an exact science (as opposed to a social science, or observed science like political science, anthropology, etc): IF they have this nailed to an exact science then either our current state of affairs was planned (conspiracy theory) OR they in fact do NOT have this nailed down to an exact science. My point, they do not. They will frequently get close but always find themselves explaining their errors with a promise of 'we won't do that again.'

With Austrians know that they are somewhat split, so it is more of a common discussion among Austrians. Some are hard core Gold Standard, while others are more flexible and would be happy with Gold pegging or some version of that. I am in this camp, always happy to hear a better way. Throughout history there have been many instances of 'free market currency' or competing currencies and all of them engaged in fractional practices. Hence, even when left to its own devices fractional banking to some degree happens.

The underlying issue for Austrians is anything that addresses monetary policy. Those are the goggles we wear.

How an Austrian sees where we are at today.

During the 1990's Congress (both parties) expanded the Community Reinvestment Act put into place during the Carter years. Essentially, this requires all financial institutions to put some of their profit back into the community. The original intent was to help build parks, expand hospitals, etc. During the 1990s the changes took a much more decisive turn. They wanted all Americans to enjoy home ownership so the new interpretation was that of lending money to people who would otherwise not qualify for a home loan. This is where the whole "Subprime" market began. Prior to this "subprime" loans were not regulated but by the free market and basically on private money engaged in the practice. When I say private money, I mean rich people making private loans outside of the banks and government regulators. Interesting, not too many of these loans took place though we also didn't see the resulting financial harm.

Back to the Community Reinvestment Act, there is a provision of law loosely based on the Sherman Antitrust Act of the 1890s that ultimately leads to Federal Government approval to expand ones banking practices. Essentially, if you want to open more branches of your bank you have to gain government approval. What Congress threatened was that banks had to either provide a percentage of their overall loans to risky home loans or they would not gain approval to expand their banks. In the business world they have a couple sayings that say it all. 'You are either coming or going' and 'either go big or go home.' The point being, if you are not growing in some way your market and base is being eaten by your competitors. When Congress threatened the life blood of competition what were the banks to do? If they didn't, their competitor would so...

They did insist on a safety net. What they got was assurances from Congress that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would buy up these loans, ultimately government would guarantee that if/when these loans went belly up the tax payer would clean up the mess. At one point Fannie/Freddie was guaranteeing 50% of all home loans in America. This was huge.

Government regulations insisted, on pain of business death that the market do what it would not normally do, with the moral hazard of tax payer cleanup.

The next step in this was the early 2000s and the ease of money. At one point the expansion of the monetary supply was so dramatic, credit made so easy homeloans were given out...holy cow. They had a loan they called a "liar loan." It required a credit check. Other then this, no documentation of what is claimed on the loan, no verification of anything other then a credit score. I'm from Las Vegas, they had billboards where banks were giving Liar Loans to people at 125% of appraised value!!! In-freaking-sane! The home is worth $200k and the bank would give you a loan of $250k. Needless to say, this was both a monetary and finacial bubble that had to pop. Entirely created by government intervention in the market. Let me add that these loans were not going fast enough for the administration circa 2000 so they changed fractional banking reserve rates to 2.5%. That means if someone deposits $100 you could turn around and extend credit out to $2,500.

Most traditional economic schools of thought pick up at the point that these loans got into the bigger market. Bundled with good loans, housing prices out of control, credit based on credit, ultimately backed by "toxic" loans based on heavily influenced home appraisals. This is certainly a massive house of cards. At its roots, government intervention. The issues you speak of are nothing more then the second and third quarter.

There is a great reading on the Mississippi bubble, which is currency. It is France circa 1700 and has at its roots pegged currency, toxic backing, etc. Good reading. Basedon France's territorial claim to the Mississippi region prior to our War of Independence and purchase under Jefferson.

This is a fun discussion.

Boo
No poor dumb bastard wins a war by dying for his country, he wins by making the other poor, dumb, bastard die for his.
George "Blood n Guts" Patton

Offline mthrockmor

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Re: Argentina is not alone
« Reply #91 on: February 12, 2012, 11:26:30 AM »
PS I should add that what I have described in short is an almost textbook example of Fascism.

Let me be clear I am not saying Clinton, Bush, Obama, Rangel, Frank, Dodd, etc are Nazis. There is not a perfect one sentence, agreed upon definition of fascism though plenty of examples.

Hitler (the biggest, best example of fascism) noted that 'it was not important to own the cow (Marxism) but instead control the decision of the person who owned the cow.' Hence, fascism was Marxism-lite (central control) where private industry helped implement the social goals of the state.

In this case the social goal of "the State" was home ownership. Government could either form its own home creation industry and provide free homes or government could use market forces to implement this goal for them.

Step one, require industry to act in a manner consistent with the goals of "the State." Step two, implement monetary and fiscal policies that will enable this to take place. Step three, guarantee the actions of industry against risk.

Many in Nazi Germany were fabulously wealthy under a Marxist regime. Watch Schindler's List for a real example of it.

I know, dicey discussion points but worthwhile to consider.
No poor dumb bastard wins a war by dying for his country, he wins by making the other poor, dumb, bastard die for his.
George "Blood n Guts" Patton

Offline pembquist

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Re: Argentina is not alone
« Reply #92 on: February 12, 2012, 01:23:58 PM »
This last financial disaster was caused by the derivatives market.  The reason you could get a liar loan was not that GSAs would back it.  The reason you could get a liar loan is that the creation of synthetic securities needed them.  In the worst cases, google Magnetar Trade, they were needed to create products that were intended to fail in order to profit from default swaps.  You can lay the fault of the crisis at the governments feet in the sense that government absolutely failed, (fails,) to regulate the derivatives market.  Individuals in government understood the danger, google Brooksley Born, but other Individuals blocked them.  I think the question that we can't really answer is what would have happened if AIG and their ilk hadn't been bailed out?  Its easy to think that the excesses would have crashed to earth and things would have sorted themselves out however I'm very skeptical.

Oh yeah, Las Malvinas fueron, son y seran!
Now thats a cause worth dying for.

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Offline Penguin

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Re: Argentina is not alone
« Reply #93 on: February 12, 2012, 01:55:17 PM »
Fascism is a lot more than central economic decision making; it involves a heavy militarization of society and an aggressive imperialist foreign policy.  Neither of these is present in the US.  While there were invasions of other countries, the last 'conquest' (military occupation and later annexation) in US history was that of the interior of the West.  Society has seen increased security, but it's hardly comparable to the shocking images of Hitler Youth marching with shovels or other such events.  While there has been central planning in response to lobbying, consider the idea that if you or I were to advocate Austrian economics to the government then we too would be part of the system that you describe as malignant.  There's no way to get rid of lobbying, be the government despotic or democratic, those with resources, guile, and determination will make their voices heard.

The moral hazard that you argue caused the crash was not present until September 2008.  The crash had already happened, and the government was trying to pick up the pieces by injecting money into the economy.  The Community Reinvestment Act was far less likely than other lenders to engage in subprime lending, for further information on the subject, see http://www.traigerlaw.com/publications/traiger_hinckley_llp_cra_foreclosure_study_1-7-08.pdf  What's more, when they did make one of these loans, they were half as likely to sell them as the market (same source as before).  That's not crony capitalism, that's playing it safe.

On the pressure of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to take risks, when I looked at Wikipedia, their description of insuring almost half the loans in the US was not a number, but rather shown as "dubious-discuss".  They also decreased the number of subprime loans that they insured as the bubble got bigger (see http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2008/10/12/53802/private-sector-loans-not-fannie.html#ixzz12xTyWY91A), which means that if there was any conspiracy, then the conspirators were either cowardly or incompetent in their pursuit of a mortgage bubble.  The more likely reason is that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were trying to avoid an explosion.

Now that's not to say that there wasn't corruption, of course there was.  Money was flowing from investors to politicians and back again through donations and legislation, respectively; however, it can hardly be expected that such corruption would have had the time to so influence the government that it could be blamed entirely for the crisis.  However, I would like to know what exactly  you wanted the government to do.  Clearly the bubble had its own origins in the financial system (MBS was nothing new, and the Credit-Default Swap was entirely a private invention) so there had to be a change in order to prevent a crash.

With regard to gold-standard vs. fiat money, though fiat money is inherently unstable and gives power to the government (not always a bad thing, especially with environmental and health regulation), so does the gold-standard, especially as the population increases.  The removal of even a few pounds of gold from the system could easily drive up its price in a country of 300 million.  Furthermore, if gold were used as a standard, inflation would still exist, but on the other side of the decimal point.  There would be a need for ever smaller units of money in order to keep consumer purchasing power from overcoming the means of production, much like there is a  need for ever higher wages and salaries in order to keep up with inflation in a fiat money system.  Money becomes ridiculously weird as the economy grows because it has to represent an ever growing value with a number.

An interesting point that I thought was interesting was the difference between GDP with the bubble included and with the bubble removed.  The bubble accounted for all but 1% of GDP growth, which can mean one of two things; either the US has reached a steady-state economy or we were so distracted with home equity extraction that we forgot to build new factories.  It's probably a bit of both, which interestingly vindicates Endogenous growth and handily explains the need for improved education in order to continue growing without a rapidly expanding economy.  Until we can colonize other planets, the world may become an information and innovation economy, as opposed to a factory-oriented one for a long time.

@pembquist
Certainly, the derivatives market was exempt from regulation.  Again, laissez faire fails to recognize the limits to human reason and we get a crash, thus highlighting the need for regulation that keeps people acting rationally.  Behavioral economics really hits this point home with books like "Nudge" that show how we often make decisions based on no information at all.  For instance, if you show up at work, and your boss gives you a card to write down your contribution for your 401k, and the number 3 is on the card, then you will likely not go lower than a 3% contribution.  It also works in cafeterias, where food closer to the cash register is bought more often, regardless of stated preferences.

back to mthrockmor:

Again, the idea of economics being an exact science is not true, yet.  It's like learning to ride a bicycle.  Sure, you should rightfully fear the quickly spinning spokes and chain, but not turning the handlebars for fear that you'll crash is no way to learn.  You'll crash anyway and still not know how to ride.  The science of economics works the same way.  We try something, it works or doesn't work, and then we see what we can do better next time.  It takes a while and isn't very efficient, but unless the knowledge just falls down out of the sky, there's no other way but to try.

-Penguin

Offline mthrockmor

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Re: Argentina is not alone
« Reply #94 on: February 12, 2012, 02:10:38 PM »
With the US military present in well over 100 foreign countries with over 800 bases you will find that many around the world do not agree with this point. A country does not have to occupy to demonstrate control to the same degree as conquest. Likely not a popular statement on the boards of a military themed game but there it is. We no longer like to call it an empire but instead hegemony. Stratfor has a great paper on it about the "Republic clashing with the Empire." It is too obvious for any to see I suppose.

As for the moral hazard, the crash is not when the hazard began. The hazard began the moment they began issuing loans to those who would, under normal conditions not be able to obtain. That hazard on steroids began in the early 2000 time frame. The size and scope of failure didn't register until 2008. The implosion is evidence of moral hazard, not the beginning of it.

Wikipedia is great "101" for just about any discussion, though as we see frequently with discussion about which plane should be added, Wiki generally comes up short. Below is a graph prepared by Credit Suisse based on data provided by the Federal Reserve. I am going to trust them over Wikiepedia.


Shot at 2012-02-12

Even now Freddi and Fannie are underwriting home loans up to $740k. I'm not certain we have learned too much, though the earlier quote by Larry Summers becomes, once again, very applicable.

In an odd twist, one can only guess why the last minute rush by FHA to approve even more loans when it became obvious it was going to implode. For some it was last minute profits, for others the ridiculous hope that more of the same would prevent the day of reckoning.

Boo
No poor dumb bastard wins a war by dying for his country, he wins by making the other poor, dumb, bastard die for his.
George "Blood n Guts" Patton

Offline Penguin

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Re: Argentina is not alone
« Reply #95 on: February 12, 2012, 02:44:48 PM »
EDIT: The high US presence in many areas is the result of a destabilized world in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union.  Now, I'm certainly not proud of such a wide military presence, and it's certainly not necessary in many cases, I agree.  However, those bases were not set up for their own sake, scores of them are the remnants of old garrisons in foreign wars, such as those from WWII and the Cold War, or are part of military alliances such as the UN or NATO.  The world is becoming global, but I agree, we should be good neighbors and start taking our troops out of Berlin, Warsaw, and other decades'-old war-zones that are no longer flash-points.

A high percentage of household mortgage debt held is not an indicator of subprime lending, sure, there is some subprime in there, but certainly not even a third of it in the case of Frannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  You also have to count in the ignoring of the Glass-Steagal Act that put the debt of commercial banks into hot water regardless of where it came from by allowing them to invest more heavily in areas unrelated to subprime lending, such as insurance.  The 'meddling' that we did was not in the positive sense, we took a regulated system that worked well and produced profits and deregulated it.  Market forces, combined with a misguided notion of the necessity of home ownership quickly made it bubble and kablamo, we have ourselves a financial crisis.  That's not meddling as much as it is just doing something stupid.  Meddling would be implementing the Glass-Steagal Act.

-Penguin
« Last Edit: February 12, 2012, 04:21:36 PM by Penguin »

Offline infowars

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Re: Argentina is not alone
« Reply #96 on: February 12, 2012, 03:09:22 PM »
Quote
Fascism is a lot more than central economic decision making; it involves a heavy militarization of society and an aggressive imperialist foreign policy.  Neither of these is present in the US.

Aggressive foreign policy? Check,  that is of no question. 

Militarization of the country...?  Pretty big check in a lot of peoples eyes.  Tazings for talking back are so common now its almost funny.  People generally accept that cops can kill with impunity.  Didn't The pres just sign the NDAA?  There's tons of articles related to local police forces getting hand me down automatic rifles, body armor, armored personnel carriers etc.

Fascism I believe is good way to describe what is happening in America.  = (
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Offline Penguin

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Re: Argentina is not alone
« Reply #97 on: February 12, 2012, 04:37:57 PM »
The increase in firepower and armor of cops is a necessity to combat the increasing number of heavily armed criminals (the increase is caused by population growth).  However, cops aren't big fans of having to wear and carry that stuff, so it generally stays in the back seat of the cruiser or with the SWAT team for when it's needed.  Consider the opposite; would you want a whole bunch of criminals with Tec-9's, Uzi's, and other assorted cheap automatic weapons running around with the police being unable to stop them without calling in the National Guard?  It's a necessary evil, if that.

I'd like to see organizations such as the Hitler Youth and the overturning of the Supreme Court ruling that made saying the Pledge of Allegiance optional before I even said, "that's too much," much less invoke Fascism.  Now, there's a strong current of nationalism in the US, but it's not even close to Hitler's Germany or Mussolini's Italy.  Even though Wiki isn't scholarly, it's just about as accurate and provides a huge store of knowledge.  So if you really want to say that the US is fascist, try these on for size:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fascism
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_Fascism
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Fascism

Let's rattle off a couple examples.  There is little to no direct propaganda, schools do not teach military drills, the dress code isn't restrictive, FOIA got passed, etc., etc., How the US is fascist is beyond me.  Describing it as such lessens the weight of the term.

@infowars: There is no comma between 'aggressive' and 'imperialist' for a reason: An aggressive imperialist foreign policy is one of military conquest and subjugation.

@all: Fascism, militarism, or whichever 20th century radical totalitarian political trend that you argue is present in America, you have neglected that these policies are ones of 'hard' power (power exerted overtly) but the examples that you provide are of 'soft' power (covertly or implicitly exerted power) which does not validate the use of such terms.

-Penguin

Offline wil3ur

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Re: Argentina is not alone
« Reply #98 on: February 12, 2012, 04:55:14 PM »
Fascism is a lot more than central economic decision making; it involves a heavy militarization of society and an aggressive imperialist foreign policy.  Neither of these is present in the US.

 :headscratch:   :rofl

PS I should add that what I have described in short is an almost textbook example of Fascism.

Let me be clear I am not saying Clinton, Bush, Obama, Rangel, Frank, Dodd, etc are Nazis. There is not a perfect one sentence, agreed upon definition of fascism though plenty of examples.

Hitler (the biggest, best example of fascism) noted that 'it was not important to own the cow (Marxism) but instead control the decision of the person who owned the cow.' Hence, fascism was Marxism-lite (central control) where private industry helped implement the social goals of the state.

In this case the social goal of "the State" was home ownership. Government could either form its own home creation industry and provide free homes or government could use market forces to implement this goal for them.

Step one, require industry to act in a manner consistent with the goals of "the State." Step two, implement monetary and fiscal policies that will enable this to take place. Step three, guarantee the actions of industry against risk.

Many in Nazi Germany were fabulously wealthy under a Marxist regime. Watch Schindler's List for a real example of it.

I know, dicey discussion points but worthwhile to consider.

 :aok   :noid
"look at me I am making a derogatory remark to the OP"


Offline Penguin

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Re: Argentina is not alone
« Reply #99 on: February 12, 2012, 05:12:52 PM »
:headscratch:   :rofl

 :aok   :noid

Oh no, he laughed, my psyche is shattered! :rolleyes:

 :P

All kidding aside, if you'd like to join the debate, feel free. :)

-Penguin

Offline infowars

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Re: Argentina is not alone
« Reply #100 on: February 12, 2012, 05:34:23 PM »
Quote
The increase in firepower and armor of cops is a necessity to combat the increasing number of heavily armed criminals (the increase is caused by population growth).  However, cops aren't big fans of having to wear and carry that stuff, so it generally stays in the back seat of the cruiser or with the SWAT team for when it's needed.  Consider the opposite; would you want a whole bunch of criminals with Tec-9's, Uzi's, and other assorted cheap automatic weapons running around with the police being unable to stop them without calling in the National Guard?  It's a necessary evil, if that.

Crime has decreased so dramatically in the US over the last 20 years it has some people baffled as for the reason.  High power assault rifles are not being used in your typical crimes.  I don't see the need to arm our peace keepers like the military. Here's wiki for ya. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States

What hasn't decreased and actually increased is how much crime is reported and dramatized.  Which begs a question... WHY?  Is it maybe that fear really does help control people.

Whether it's labeled as fascism or not its definitely some sort of corporate/military conspiracy with very few winners and whole bunch of losers...

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Offline RTHolmes

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Re: Argentina is not alone
« Reply #101 on: February 12, 2012, 06:04:55 PM »
so how is this related to the disputed sovereignty of the falkland islands? :headscratch:
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Offline mthrockmor

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Re: Argentina is not alone
« Reply #102 on: February 12, 2012, 06:12:21 PM »
This has grown to two good discussions. The first centers around economic activity, the second around an agreed upon definition of fascism.

I jumped the gun a bit on a comment. Fascism is associated with nationalism though does not require foreign military adventurism. The seeming inevitability is the long accepted fact that war is the ultimate authority of "the State." The most basic definition is something along the lines of corporatism in alliance with government to implement the goals of state.

In any case, America the country I love and have worn the uniform of is most certainly heavily engaged in this arena. Since will not have a formal declaration of "fascism or not" from DC everyone gets their own opinion. As for me...

If we took a time machine to 1938 this would be a very different discussion. Fascism was a wonderful tool to restore a nations economic health. Hitler was named Times Man of the Year. It took the concentration camps of Europe to question the concept.

If any, we practice a far happier version without eugenics though clearly Crony Capitalism is on steroids.

Boo
No poor dumb bastard wins a war by dying for his country, he wins by making the other poor, dumb, bastard die for his.
George "Blood n Guts" Patton

Offline mthrockmor

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Re: Argentina is not alone
« Reply #103 on: February 12, 2012, 07:32:35 PM »
Penguin, this is a great discussion. Do me a favor if you get bored. What are your thoughts about this?

 http://www.freebanking.org/2012/02/09/the-other-bagehot/

Boo
No poor dumb bastard wins a war by dying for his country, he wins by making the other poor, dumb, bastard die for his.
George "Blood n Guts" Patton

Offline Penguin

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Re: Argentina is not alone
« Reply #104 on: February 12, 2012, 10:39:55 PM »
Crime has decreased so dramatically in the US over the last 20 years it has some people baffled as for the reason.  High power assault rifles are not being used in your typical crimes.  I don't see the need to arm our peace keepers like the military. Here's wiki for ya. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States

What hasn't decreased and actually increased is how much crime is reported and dramatized.  Which begs a question... WHY?  Is it maybe that fear really does help control people.

Whether it's labeled as fascism or not its definitely some sort of corporate/military conspiracy with very few winners and whole bunch of losers...



It's not that there are more crimes, it's that the likelihood of officers meeting a crazy person with an automatic have increased due to the number of people increasing.  It also has to do with tactics- suppressing fire is difficult with a semi-automatic pistol, so having an AR-15 with a happy switch back at the station can close the gap while SWAT gets there.  I certainly wouldn't feel too confident about storming a building if the other guy's head were still up.  Body armor is necessary to keep up with the increased power of munitions due to advances in gun making.  No surprise there.  Also, why not?  Having something to keep the lead out and the guts in never hurts if you're on the beat.

However, the increase in reported crime is actually fairly logical.  People react more strongly to negative information, so networks try to scare the pants off us in order to keep us watching.  It's not so much evil as slick.

On fascism, I think we're really more concerned with corruption than whether we should get our right shoulders nice and limber.  Moral hazard was present after the crash, mismanagement by everyone from high officials to Mom and Pop preceded it, and corruption was fairly stable throughout.  Now that's not to say that urging banks to lend to subprime borrowers isn't about as asinine as drinking battery acid for want of whiskey, but I think that we can rule out conspiracy in this case. 

If it's any consolation, a genuine (though self-admitted) conspiracy exists in public schools, they're supposed to turn students into patriots... it stinks!

-Penguin