Could a Comet Hit Mars in 2014?

[Sundowner]

C/2013 A1 was discovered by ace comet-hunter Robert McNaught at the Siding Spring Observatory in New South Wales, Australia, on Jan. 3. When the discovery was made, astronomers at the Catalina Sky Survey in Arizona looked back over their observations to find “prerecovery” images of the comet dating back to Dec. 8, 2012. These observations placed the orbital trajectory of comet C/2013 A1 through Mars orbit on Oct. 19, 2014.

Could the Red Planet be in for a potentially huge impact next year? Will Mars rovers Curiosity and Opportunity be in danger of becoming scrap metal?

It seems the likelihood of an awesome planetary impact is low — for now......

http://news.discovery.com/space/astronomy/could-a-comet-hit-mars-in-2014-130225.htm

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There is a chance that the comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring), discovered in the beginning of 2013, might collide with Mars. At the moment, based on the observation arc of 74 days, the nominal close approach distance between the red planet and the comet might be as little as 0.00073 AU, that is approximately 109,200 km! Distance to Mars’ natural satellite Deimos will be smaller by 6000 km, making it 103,000 km. On the 19th October 2014, the comet might reach apparent magnitude of -8…-8.5, as seen from Mars! Perhaps it will be possible to accuire high-resolution images from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO).

Since C/2013 A1 is a hyperbolic comet and moves in a retrograde orbit, its velocity with respect to the planet will be very high, approximately 56 km/s. With the current estimate of the absolute magnitude of the nucleus M2 = 10.3, which might indicate the diameter up to 50 km, the energy of impact might reach the equivalent of staggering 2×10¹º megatonnes! This kind of event can leave a crater 500 km across and 2 km deep. Such an event would overshadow even the famous bombardment of Jupiter by the disintegrated comet Shoemaker–Levy 9 in July 1994, which by some estimates was originally 15 km in diameter.

All that is said above is based on the current measurements, and will of course be refined as more data comes in. In any case, even now we can say that the close approach will happen. The current orbit uncertainty allows for a collision scenario, but the possibility of this is small. Astronomers keep watching this interesting comet, and I will keep you up to date with the news.

http://spaceobs.org/en/tag/c2013-a1-siding-spring/

Regards,
Sun

[zack1234]

Yes

[Vudu15]

All I got from that is somewhere is a car with 5 comet kill marks on it.


 

[ariansworld]

I bet the moon will leave Earth's orbit in the next 100 years though....

[expat]

Didn't think any comet's were still flying 

[zack1234]

I bet the moon will leave Earth's orbit in the next 100 years though....

Skuzzy told me the moon is moving away from us.

I have been going out every full moon and it still looks the same.

Do you think he has made a mistake?

[bigsky]

They need to put a HEMI in that comet to hit mars.

[rpm]

I'm more interested in the asteroid Apophis that is scheduled to "graze the atmosphere" in 2029 and possibly hit Earth in 2036. It's 1000 feet wide and if it hits will have the force of 20,000 Hiroshima bombs. Nobody will know about 2036 for sure until they can see how much drag affects it's course in 2029.

[titanic3]

I'm more interested in the asteroid Apophis that is scheduled to "graze the atmosphere" in 2029 and possibly hit Earth in 2036. It's 1000 feet wide and if it hits will have the force of 20,000 Hiroshima bombs. Nobody will know about 2036 for sure until they can see how much drag affects it's course in 2029.

Isn't that the one where it has to pass through a small imaginary square in space to be affected by gravity and come back to hit? I sometimes hope we'll get an asteroid that's coming right for us. Might force all the countries in the world to actually work together...because we're better than that...right?...right? Right?

[bj229r]

Mara was obstructing my view of Jupiter anyhow

[Pigslilspaz]

Isn't that the one where it has to pass through a small imaginary square in space to be affected by gravity and come back to hit? I sometimes hope we'll get an asteroid that's coming right for us. Might force all the countries in the world to actually work together...because we're better than that...right?...right? Right?

We're doomed.

[Selino631]

Skuzzy told me the moon is moving away from us.

I have been going out every full moon and it still looks the same.

Do you think he has made a mistake?

i thought the moon was crashing?

[Rino]

Didn't think any comet's were still flying 

     Maybe they finally fixed the square window fatigue problem?   

[Scherf]

*ahem*

"Where's the kaboom?"









quah

[skorpx1]

Skuzzy told me the moon is moving away from us.

I have been going out every full moon and it still looks the same.

Do you think he has made a mistake?

The moon is moving away from us, but its clear that its not leaving us for another (at least) two million years.

Either Skuzzy never took a simple astronomy class, or whatever it is he really said was a joke or a rumor. The moon moves away at 1-3 inches each year, sometimes less than an inch, sometimes more. When it does move more/less than the specified 1-3 inches its not really much of a deal. At the rate its going now, it'd take a very long time for it to be completely gone and out of Earth's/the suns gravitational pull. Earth alone doesn't hold the moon in place - it just simply doesn't have the mass to do so - and the sun helps out a lot.

As for the comet to hit Mars in 2014, its likely that it could hit Jupiter, provided it comes in at the right angle/speed. If it hits Mars then lets hope it doesn't affect the Mars Rover. That'd be dumping a lot of taxpayer cash right into a lava pit. The probability of it hitting the rover is very slim so I guess it wouldn't really matter where it lands.