Author Topic: Real global cooling  (Read 2638 times)

Offline zack1234

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Re: Real global cooling
« Reply #15 on: November 13, 2013, 12:27:31 PM »
What is "Peer reviewed"?

You clever or somefin?
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Offline SlidingHorn

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Re: Real global cooling
« Reply #16 on: November 13, 2013, 12:31:06 PM »
What is "Peer reviewed"?

You clever or somefin?

Peer Review: There's a Youtube vid somewhere that says it, and someone commented on it.  :neener:
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Offline nrshida

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Re: Real global cooling
« Reply #17 on: November 13, 2013, 12:47:14 PM »
What is "Peer reviewed"?


It's like a pie review only more rigorous.


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Offline DubiousKB

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Re: Real global cooling
« Reply #18 on: November 13, 2013, 12:47:42 PM »
Peer reviewed. Hrumph... :eek:

Recent peer reviewed documents concerning global climate models have been shown to be incorrect and biased.   Just because something is "peer reviewed" does not mean it is infallible.

The ability of any organism to survive, is directly related to it's ability to adapt to it's environment....

Unfortunately those who are involved in the fossil fuel industry are making too much money to abandon years of infrastructure and profit. We have alternate fuel sources, but none of which are "economically viable alternatives"... This is where it gets sketchy in my book. When someone says it's not economically viable, that means to me, that there are too many people dependent on their income associated with the industry to simply abolish it. NOTE: Dependent does not mean profit like a CEO, but the blue collar boys doing the actual work.

I don't know that there's an easy solution, but as we discover new ways to obtain, harness, and distribute other forms of energy, perhaps we will see a reduction in our dependence on fossil fuels.
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Offline zack1234

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Re: Real global cooling
« Reply #19 on: November 13, 2013, 12:51:04 PM »
That is OK then I thought people were saying there are no facts about Global Warming :old:
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Offline Brooke

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Re: Real global cooling
« Reply #20 on: November 13, 2013, 01:04:14 PM »
My feeling is that worrying over global warming is overblown for various reasons.

CO2 levels were five times higher than they are today during the time of the dinosaurs and 10 times higher than today during the Devonian period.  Life thrived nonetheless.

Global temperatures were greater during a portion of the Roman empire than they are today.

Ice ages have historically happened periodically, and an ice age would be vastly more destructive to human life than global warming, so maybe it's good to have extra CO2 in the air.

Global warming has not been significant during the last 10 or 15 years and has not gone according to models.  If it does continue according to models (which it might not), the rate of change is slow enough that humans might be able to deal with it.

Warming is not bad for all regions -- some regions would benefit.

Mankind's power sources will probably alter over time just as a result of market forces, increasing nuclear and solar.

Offline SlidingHorn

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Re: Real global cooling
« Reply #21 on: November 13, 2013, 01:11:13 PM »
Recent peer reviewed documents concerning global climate models have been shown to be incorrect and biased.  

*Citation needed

Quote
Just because something is "peer reviewed" does not mean it is infallible.

Nor did I say it does, however, it certainly adds credibility to an idea if those qualified are able to confirm and repeat the predicted results.

Quote
the ability of any organism to survive, is directly related to it's ability to adapt to it's environment....

Something we, as humans, typically do not do.  We change our environment to suit our desires.

Quote
Unfortunately those who are involved in the fossil fuel industry are making too much money to abandon years of infrastructure and profit. We have alternate fuel sources, but none of which are "economically viable alternatives"... This is where it gets sketchy in my book. When someone says it's not economically viable, that means to me, that there are too many people dependent on their income associated with the industry to simply abolish it. NOTE: Dependent does not mean profit like a CEO, but the blue collar boys doing the actual work.

I don't know that there's an easy solution, but as we discover new ways to obtain, harness, and distribute other forms of energy, perhaps we will see a reduction in our dependence on fossil fuels.

Can't offer a rebuttal to this, however...I whole-heartedly agree with you here.  :salute
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Offline ROC

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Re: Real global cooling
« Reply #22 on: November 13, 2013, 01:55:29 PM »
Sometimes peer review isn't a good thing, especially if there is an agenda.  I personally enjoy seeing someone enter the fray and debunk and argue against something. If it is based on fact, it will stand up to scrutiny.  Just arguing against something is not a bad thing. 

For example, speaking of peer review, in this situation I was not entirely welcome at the conversation.  I was clearly not in the peer group.
I sat on a planning commission for 8 years.  We spent many long years master planning a region, and went into great detail when it came down to how much traffic the community was willing to accept in order to gain new housing to support the retail services that were severely lacking in the community.  We designed our roads to achieve a level of service "C" at peak hours, which essentially meant you sat at a light, but you cleared it during the cycle and didn't sit through multiple light changes.  That is a level that was desired and built out.
Some years later, a new council and new developers came through, and thought they wanted to open up more development in the southern most portion of town.  With a maximum build out of 80k people, this effort was going to place an additional 10-12k people in an area that had a single north/south artery.  Their state of the art computer model showed that there would be absolutely no impact on the roadways.  Yayy and the angels sang and the people were blessed and the council was so happy that they could now build more and more.  One small problem, there isn't a chance in hell that the roads could handle that.  But, wait, says the mayor, the model proves it! 

Now, I love a good computer game as much as the next guy, so I asked at the meeting if I could play with the model :)  The engineer was happy to show it to me, as it was so flawless and precise that it could manage the data down to a single vehicle, it wasn't just some generic model that did averages and such.  Oh and I was so impressed I just had to have him show us more, what a wonderful gadget.  I asked, it can't be possible to modify a single vehicles action, can it truly be so?  Yes oh Yes ye of little faith, watch.  And behold, he slowed a car down and the cars around him slowed, changed lanes, and carried on with their little pixel lives.  He was smiling, see how clever?  I agreed, Brilliant says I, you really have mastered the art of traffic models.  There can be no doubt that this perfectly simulates the traffic conditions, and the council was so happy that this thorn in their side actually "got it".  But, I'm sorry, I just have one silly question, and I know I am not a computer scientist or an engineer, I'm just some guy who builds things.  Question, I see all of the cars going up and down the streets, and then it appears like they kind of, well, disappear when they go up the on ramps to the freeways.  Umm, just out of curiosity, since the surface streets kind of have to interact with the freeway on ramps, what happens if you add traffic to the freeways?   Oh, well, that was unfortunate.  Oops, forgot to model any traffic on the freeway.   So Mr. Code added the freeway traffic at peak hours.  65mph, Sacramento CA  I-5 and I-80.  Hmmmm....models starting to hork up a hairball or two, seems the traffic going up onto the freeways are clogging up a bit, backing up into the surface streets.  Woops, looks like it's getting a bit shakey down south a few miles.
Oh, one more really sorta stupid question for Mr. Code here.  Umm, I don't know where you live actually, but at 5pm at peak rush hour, I-5 and I-80 don't actually go 65mph, they are actually locked up and more often than not are at a standstill, but just for kicks, how about we do this.  One car you say?  You can manipulate a single car, so how about we put one 85 year old lady in the fast lane, and let's say she's doing 50mph.  Plug that in.  10 minutes later the traffic model collapsed. 
If you have a room full of people who want the model to perform a certain way, you will get the model to perform.  If you do not question the data going in, you cannot be sure of the results, you cannot believe anything anyone "proves" simply because they are "educated" and are saying what you want them to say.  If you don't question the results, force it to stand up to scrutiny, you are not solving a thing.  There is nothing wrong with the current, or any agenda being questioned.  It is not offensive to question.  A good plan, a proven concept, a strong argument will enjoy and even encourage you to test it, they won't hide from it or cry foul when the model is distrusted.  If you want to see how truly someone is committed to an idea, challenge it. 
Oh, by the way, that entire development did not occur, when a far "smarter" group of planners, elected officials and developers wanted it.  One stupid question. 
ROC
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Offline nrshida

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Re: Real global cooling
« Reply #23 on: November 13, 2013, 02:30:33 PM »
Sometimes peer review isn't a good thing, especially if there is an agenda.  I personally enjoy seeing someone enter the fray and debunk and argue against something. If it is based on fact, it will stand up to scrutiny.  Just arguing against something is not a bad thing. 


A percentage of this community clearly doesn't know what science is, what it's for, how it works and are completely unable to distinguish it from pseudoscience. Or is it simply that having so much invested in the present system it becomes an issue of cultural expedience I wonder.






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Offline SlidingHorn

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Re: Real global cooling
« Reply #24 on: November 13, 2013, 02:56:14 PM »
Hi Roc,

Your illustration kind of proves my point:  You, as his peer, reviewed the engineer's model (experiment), found its holes and weaknesses, and his hypothesis (eq: "paper") was rejected.

The main concepts to peer review (IMO) are to: 1) Provide as accurate an explanation as is currently possible through confirmation of the available data and results.  2) In doing so, peer review *removes* agenda from the equation, because - as you said - If it is based on fact, it will stand up to scrutiny. 

Does any of this mean that peer review is flawless and an impossible system to beat?  Not at all.  Andrew Wakefield showed this to all of us with his bogus, interest-conflicted paper in The Lancet regarding the MMR vaccine:  The paper was published, and after further review of the data and the study itself, it was found to be deeply flawed.  The scientific community rejected the results, the paper was retracted, and "Dr." Wakefield was stripped of his license to practice (That doesn't stop him from parading his nonsense throughout America, unfortunately, but that's another topic...)

The moral of the story is that while no system may ever truly be "perfect," peer review is a very important factor in allowing accurate, testable, repeatable results to rise to the top, and filtering out the pseudo-scientific "woo woo" in the process.  :cheers:
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Offline ROC

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Re: Real global cooling
« Reply #25 on: November 13, 2013, 03:03:48 PM »
Since you quoted my line, I am going to consider you meant me, and I wonder if you understood what was being said here.  I don't doubt you didn't, I am no scientist and don't always get my point out eloquently.
Scientists are debating the same things everyone else is on this particular subject :)  If they can't agree, how do you expect us uneducated ones to agree :)  There is scientific "proof" that global warming/cooling exists/doesn't exist, is/isn't man made and does/does not affect the planet.  My point was to embrace debate if you believe in it strongly, and it should hold up.  What did you just do to debate my message other than attempt to discredit the messenger?  I showed you a real time example of how models fail and can be manipulated.  I can't take it to another level without getting a thread locked.  But models are data, data can be manipulated.  It doesn't take a scientist to know that.  Sometimes people put too much faith in someone they think is smarter than they are.  
Peer Review.  Sometimes it creates a snowblind affect.  You have to step outside of your comfort zone once in a while to get a different perspective on things.

SlidingHorn, my real point was, I was not considered his Peer ;)  I was way outclassed, outgunned, and out smarted by those in the group, according to the group.  But I get what you are saying  :cheers:
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Offline DubiousKB

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Re: Real global cooling
« Reply #26 on: November 13, 2013, 03:47:13 PM »
*Citation needed

Can't offer a rebuttal to this, however...I whole-heartedly agree with you here.  :salute

 :salute

I am thinking about the IPCC predictions and data which were straight up wrong. Close, but still much worse than actual data shows.

http://joannenova.com.au/2012/05/the-ipcc-1990-far-predictions-were-wrong/

http://www.americanthinker.com/2013/11/ipcc_s_bogus_evidence_for_global_warming.html

Peer review doesn't necessarily mean the reviewers are examining and replicating data, the second link reveals that only certain data sets were used that supported the authors claim.

...kinda like what my grampa said to me about news (15 years ago); the news won't straight out lie to you, but it's up to you to understand the truths being told.  Please note, this was before the media became an entertainment and fear industry.

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Offline Bodhi

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Re: Real global cooling
« Reply #27 on: November 13, 2013, 05:39:28 PM »
Yes there is :old:

Actually, there is not. 
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Offline Bodhi

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Re: Real global cooling
« Reply #28 on: November 13, 2013, 05:40:33 PM »
You're a scientist are you?

No, but since numerous scientists have published erroneous and downright falsified papers on the subject, I am going to take that as a compliment.
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Offline Bodhi

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Re: Real global cooling
« Reply #29 on: November 13, 2013, 05:42:11 PM »
I'm curious: How many peer reviewed papers have you published on the topic?

Not a one.  I have read numerous papers on the subject and I find anyone supporting man-made global climate change as highly suspect, especially when you trace the money back to who is funding these follies.
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