I think the 50% angle is around 20 degrees relative to the underside of the wing because I think that matches the aerodynamic qualities described for the maneuver setting. It was max lift. The advice was don't use more than 50% until you're committed to landing. There was no "4th" notch of flaps if we consider maneuver to be the 3rd notch in AH. The advice to pilots was to use maneuver until you went to full down even though they had the ability to stop the flaps on the "4th" notch.
The 8 degree flap extension is a minimum drag extension but it's also not a max lift extension. I'm assuming the full range is 40 degrees based on visuals and the modeling blueprint. The desirable 8 degree position would be available by manual selection using the indicator pin in the wing as a guide. I'd like to see how that's marked, but I'm guessing it shows something besides half and full. Zeno's P-38 video only shows the old style gauge used prior to the maneuver flap upgrade.
If you cut yourself an 8 degree wedge, a 20 and a 40, then use them to assess P-38 flap positions, I think you'll find 20 degrees more likely for half extended.
Full flap extension on the P-38 is 35 degrees as stated in T.O. 01-75FG-2.
In this image you can see the flaps extended 50% with the carriage and tracks visible. Using the rib above the carriage bolt removal hole (c) as a reference, we can see that the flap carriage is 2 more ribs behind the hole....
Now in this picture where a flap is removed for maintenence, we can see that 2 ribs behind the hole is only slightly past the BEND in the track.
From the retracted position the flap moves aft over 1/4 of it's range adding wing area, but with minimal deflection. When the upper flap carriage reaches the bend in the upper track it starts to deflect the flap. The lower flap carriage reaches the end of the lower track, while the top continues to move rotating the flap rapidly during the second 1/2 of it's range of motion.
And here is what I've been saying all along, which is confirmed in T.O. 01-75FG-2. The indicator is driven from a gear meshed with the drive screw. The drive screw runs the cables that actually move the flaps. The indicator only tells the pilot where the flaps are within it's range of motion fore and aft. It does not directly indicate flap deflection like you'd expect from a split or plain flap.
Wing flaps are Lockheed-Fowler type which roll aft and down from the trailing edge on tracks beneath the wing, extending the actual area of the wing as well as increasing lift. Relatively slow landings of highly wing-loaded aircraft are made possible because of the high lift coefficients. With the flap in a partially extended position, a large increase in lift is provided with minimal increase in drag. This makes possible for use of these flaps for take off as well as for a maneuvering flap in combat. -Joseph Johnson YP-38 project engineer