Author Topic: DOW minus 329 points-another recession ?!  (Read 3738 times)

Offline zack1234

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 13213
Re: DOW minus 329 points-another recession ?!
« Reply #120 on: October 23, 2014, 02:44:10 AM »
(I listen to audio books.)

So when are you going write a review of the "Broke Back Mountain" audio book you downloaded the other month :old:

"when money dies" is a good audio book :old:

« Last Edit: October 23, 2014, 02:46:30 AM by zack1234 »
There are no pies stored in this plane overnight

                          
The GFC
Pipz lived in the Wilderness near Ontario

Offline morfiend

  • AH Training Corps
  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 10444
Re: DOW minus 329 points-another recession ?!
« Reply #121 on: October 23, 2014, 03:16:42 PM »
So when are you going write a review of the "Broke Back Mountain" audio book you downloaded the other month :old:

"when money dies" is a good audio book :old:




 Zack,


   I had to visit my banker today!   He told me your investment may go or may go down!


    It`s an outrage but I had to laugh as I walked out!




    :salute

Offline Brooke

  • Aces High CM Staff
  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 15545
      • http://www.electraforge.com/brooke/
Re: DOW minus 329 points-another recession ?!
« Reply #122 on: October 23, 2014, 05:14:30 PM »
Would you agree that eventually the type of labor would suffer and lack quality if the employers continued to give the job to lower paid workers?

Yes -- but that is what the market figures out.  For a company, it needs employees of skill Y to operate optimally and thrive.  If it gets employees at less than Y, it will get beat by competitors that get high-enough Y, and that competitor will thrive and the misallocated company will not.  If a company hires employees much higher than Y, it will pay them a lot more, and that typically does not translate into higher profits (or that's what the market rate would become).  That is why, when you hire someone (a mechanic to work on your car, for example), you don't hire the head of an Indy car mechanic team to do it but instead use a normal mechanic.  Why?  Because paying the Indy guy $5000 to do a tune up vs. $200 (or whatever it normally costs) doesn't result in $4800 extra benefit to you.

Markets figure all of this out.

Reading Sowell, you will get all of these dynamics firmly and easily in mind.

Quote
The only problem with college is that we learn the fundamentals. But don't have the knowledge of what a CEO actually goes through.

I've been through a lot of college.  The problem is that people often do not get taught fundamentals.  In econ classes, it seems to me, they learn a bunch of niche crap that doesn't help them figure out simple -- yet important -- real-world things like, do minimum wage laws work?, does rent control work?, is war the way to improve an economy?, is a bad economy because employers are greedy?, and so on.  They learn about a supply/demand curves maybe, and that seems to be about all they take away from it (if that).

Also, CEO's often don't know crap about economics (another misconception people have about economics is that business = economics and that business people know economics -- they usually don't).  As a group, they still should read "Basic Economics," by Sowell.

Offline Brooke

  • Aces High CM Staff
  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 15545
      • http://www.electraforge.com/brooke/
Re: DOW minus 329 points-another recession ?!
« Reply #123 on: October 23, 2014, 05:34:17 PM »
So when are you going write a review of the "Broke Back Mountain" audio book you downloaded the other month :old:

Ah, one of my favorites, along with this great movie I watched -- "Backside to the Future".

Quote
"when money dies" is a good audio book :old:

I haven't read "When Money Dies", but it sounds good and I might get it based on your recommendation.  I am very familiar with the history of currency in the Weimar Republic.  I have read:

This Time is Different, by Reinhart and Rogoff (which is awesome, but is full of statistics and would not be enjoyable to most people)
The Death of Money, by Rickards
Endgame, by Mauldin and Tepper
Code Red, by Mauldin and Tepper
The Return of Depression Economics, by Krugman
End This Depression Now, by Krugman
The Big Short, by Lewis
Boomerang, by Lewis
Keynes Hayek, by Wapshott

and in the broader context of civilization

The Birth of Britain, by Churchill
Civilization, by Ferguson
The Great Degeneration, by Ferguson
Why Nations Fail, by Acemoglu and Robinson
The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, by Gibbon
Losing Ground:  American Social Policy 1950-1980, by Murray
A History of Greece, by Robinson
Conquests and Cultures, by Sowell
Guns, Germs, and Steel, by Diamond


« Last Edit: October 23, 2014, 05:38:26 PM by Brooke »

Offline zack1234

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 13213
Re: DOW minus 329 points-another recession ?!
« Reply #124 on: October 24, 2014, 02:01:10 AM »
Avrill Harriman wrote a book "American Imperialism" which today colonials grab for their pitchforks when it is mentioned :)

It was written in the 1950's which was very suprising, Harriman was bullett proof because of his wealth and influence in dealing with the Commies :)

I have written a  book its in Wikipedepoo so it must be true :rofl
There are no pies stored in this plane overnight

                          
The GFC
Pipz lived in the Wilderness near Ontario

Online DmonSlyr

  • Platinum Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 6657
Re: DOW minus 329 points-another recession ?!
« Reply #125 on: October 24, 2014, 11:34:24 AM »
Quote from: NatCigg linwpic=366499.msg4883962#msg4883962 date=1414028064
if you try a little harder i think youll get it.  there is always a give and take, or in better words a supply and demand curve.  the market decides the numbers.  it is more often than not, regulations that disrupt this system.  Increased costs due to regulations puts stress on a bussines, the business will adjust by increasing the price of the product or decreasing expenses or simply losing profit.

The problem I see in your logic is that your pulling money out of thin air.  how is one company's increased profit going to lead to further increased pay in the industry?  only if the super human worker your dreaming of creates a demand for that worker.  still the market is deciding the increase in wages.

This system is established and works far better than yourexpensive and tion.  you can try to reinvent the wheel but the only thing your doing is thowing wrenches in the wheel that is driving the bus.


I'm thinking pretty hard on this one don't worry.

Isn't the object of a business to essentially "pull money out of thin air".

I agree with your first paragraph that there is always a give and take and with economics, it always goes up and always goes down when you try to do something or not. This is why econ is so debateable.That being said, you want the pattern to look much like our current stock market trends since the 1930's. That is a good indicator that we have expanded and companies have still been successfully invested in.

Credit and debt has had a hugeee backlash for our country obviously, but it is a necessary evil to keep our current system of trade stable. I feel like this is a whole separate issue all together. Again, people need the jobs to pay them back, while banks need to make damn sure those people can pay it back.

Yes regulations do have a major impact, which other countries don't have to compete with. So I do agree with you on that and how it does cut back potential earnings. Although, I do think some regulation is necessary for our personal standards and satisfaction of the product/service.

I don't think you are realizing my point about compensation and success, Natcigg. The pay scale/work is constructed based on the what the current market pay rate is correct. So the different in our ideology is that I firmly believe if you were able to find better workers, say an experienced engineer, or top salesman, gaming developer, and paid them more than competitors , you would essentially be taking a risk for reward. However, you'd (potentially) be making higher profits based on the experience increase in performance/happiness of your employees. Your company will (potentially) create an advantage by providing better service/products, therefore increasing the profits by taking customers away from the competition -aka pulling money out of thin air to meet the workers demand/profit, there has to be a way to make economy of scale better in your company. In order to be successful you have to have better products, better customer services, and still maintain a comparitve cost with your customers. While increasing pay and quality may slightly raise the price and risk of losing customers, the goal is hoping to gain better share by stealing customers by having better products. On that note, I believe that it comes down to what the owners want to put back in their pocket, compared to what the market is percieved to be toward their employees, rather than what the company is making as a whole compared to its competitors in a region.  That is why compensation has not increased with productivity like it use to in the past. Depending on the owners, they may choose whether they want to be the company with the cheapest prices or the best quality. The better quality producers typically pull around the same amount of business in a region while paying employees more. The cheaper prices company stunts market growth in the region and keeps the rate of pay down for the market causing the quality of standard of living to not be as high as it should be. If more people work at the lower paying company. The quality of the consumer economy will go down.

So looking at the same type of product, like cars for example. If their are 3 different companies that run a city let's say, and the town was split into 3rds. The best workers got paid the highest and 1 dealership had the best workers because their cars were more expensive and are better quality. One was medium with medium pay, the other was the low end makers who's employees made the lowest wages. It would be obvious to tell which company everyone initually wanted to work for. But you got the lazy and the middle workers who don't work as hard so this drops the market rate average and the overall standard of living.
 If each company were able to produce the same cars and all paid the same rate.  The economy would be more stable while encouraging different types of brands to be baught, and the standard of living would be neutral. In order for this to happen, the low end company would have to take a risk and give their workers higher wages. If the expensive brand lowerd wages to meet the market. That would be bad for the whole economy.

It is hypothetical, it just depends on how you imagine the economy to becoming better over time rather than continuing to drop do to the lower market rates based on the lower paying companies.  

I think a good example of this is how professional sports teams opperate.
« Last Edit: October 24, 2014, 02:23:34 PM by DmonSlyr »
The Damned(est. 1988)
-=Army of Muppets=-
2014 & 2018 KoTH ToC Champion

Offline Brooke

  • Aces High CM Staff
  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 15545
      • http://www.electraforge.com/brooke/
Re: DOW minus 329 points-another recession ?!
« Reply #126 on: October 24, 2014, 07:33:43 PM »
Avrill Harriman wrote a book "American Imperialism" which today colonials grab for their pitchforks when it is mentioned :)

I don't have a pitchfork.  Will a broom work?

Quote
I have written a  book its in Wikipedepoo so it must be true :rofl

How about a link?  :aok

Offline Brooke

  • Aces High CM Staff
  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 15545
      • http://www.electraforge.com/brooke/
Re: DOW minus 329 points-another recession ?!
« Reply #127 on: October 24, 2014, 07:59:33 PM »
it just depends on how you imagine the economy to becoming better over time rather than continuing to drop do to the lower market rates based on the lower paying companies.  

Economic improvement is the result of innovation, creation, and productivity gains.  It has nothing to do with what employers think about wages.  It is the result of free markets; the rule of law; stable, fair, and minimally invasive institutions; and a citizenry that doesn't start believing a load of crap and then wreck all of it.

Offline NatCigg

  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3336
Re: DOW minus 329 points-another recession ?!
« Reply #128 on: October 24, 2014, 09:06:11 PM »
a citizenry that doesn't start believing a load of crap and then wreck all of it.

 :lol


On a side note, good workers can be hard to find.  for me I cant buy good workers.  I get young and old people interested in the work we do and we work out a agreeable rate.  from this, I have seen a good share of good employees and bad employees,  the best ones listen and execute with a solid intrest to succeed, personally and for the business.  The bad ones have poor attitudes and dont listen well.  The situation is out of hand when the bad ones forget the day they walked in asking for a job, then develop there own ideas in spite of leadership, and develop like a cancer in the team.  These problem people need to be eliminated. 

I think its important to know your place and to continue working hard for the team.  And also make yourself underpaid, when the contract is up then you can renegotiate.  When you hit the higher payscale your performance must be there.  there are more people wanting to take your job and the man on top will be looking at your large salary and compairing it to production and also other viable options that might involve your removal.  like biggie say "mo money mo problems"

Also some pip squeak out of college dont know his donut from a door knob and really cant say much.  Your book smarts and fantastical view of polar bears dont mean squat in the real world.

Online DmonSlyr

  • Platinum Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 6657
Re: DOW minus 329 points-another recession ?!
« Reply #129 on: October 25, 2014, 01:06:38 AM »
:lol


On a side note, good workers can be hard to find.  for me I cant buy good workers.  I get young and old people interested in the work we do and we work out a agreeable rate.  from this, I have seen a good share of good employees and bad employees,  the best ones listen and execute with a solid intrest to succeed, personally and for the business.  The bad ones have poor attitudes and dont listen well.  The situation is out of hand when the bad ones forget the day they walked in asking for a job, then develop there own ideas in spite of leadership, and develop like a cancer in the team.  These problem people need to be eliminated.  

I think its important to know your place and to continue working hard for the team.  And also make yourself underpaid, when the contract is up then you can renegotiate.  When you hit the higher payscale your performance must be there.  there are more people wanting to take your job and the man on top will be looking at your large salary and compairing it to production and also other viable options that might involve your removal.  like biggie say "mo money mo problems"

Also some pip squeak out of college dont know his donut from a door knob and really cant say much.  Your book smarts and fantastical view of polar bears dont mean squat in the real world.

Well, I agreed with the lot of that up until the last paragraph, ya hairy Scottish monkey.
And as well with Brooke.
I realize I am speaking on irrelevent authority to an extent.
Although, I truely think wages effect the economy on a much grander scale, as a whole, for businesses to succeed, and the change is difficult to make.. It is necessary to extend the value of the market and create larger scales instead of slowely lagging behind. It's not about what the employers think their wages ought to be. It is about preserving the competition of workers for successful profits as well as increasing market share for higher profits.
The consumer base is huge. People need to spend more money. They are craving it. And it will help the whole market. Creation, innovation, that doesn't happen without being apart of a team that cares.  
« Last Edit: October 25, 2014, 01:56:49 AM by DmonSlyr »
The Damned(est. 1988)
-=Army of Muppets=-
2014 & 2018 KoTH ToC Champion

Offline Brooke

  • Aces High CM Staff
  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 15545
      • http://www.electraforge.com/brooke/
Re: DOW minus 329 points-another recession ?!
« Reply #130 on: October 25, 2014, 03:35:27 AM »
Creation, innovation, that doesn't happen without being apart of a team that cares.  

It always happens, regardless of good or bad business environments, as long as the society isn't structured idiotically (which happens a lot in the world).  If there are no good businesses in that regard, people leave and start their own businesses that do optimize it and then outcompete the old businesses -- if the society isn't structured to kill that process.

You can hamper that process with:
-- Too much regulation, so that it is too hard, expensive, or risky to start or operate a startup (i.e., securities laws that are too complicated and risky, labor laws that are too complicated and hard to adjust your workforce, tax systems that create large compliance burden, not even including the tax amount, etc.).
-- Cronyism, that protects entrenched players against startups (rules that favor huge, entrenched businesses and protect them from smaller competitors who can't afford an army of lawyers, lobbyists, and compliance officers -- or in really bad countries, where the government just flat out steals the businesses or their goods).
-- Unpredictability of regulation (so that you can't tell if there is going to be a major shift in regulation that ruins what you are working toward).
-- Taxes that are too high or too "progressive" (i.e., Laffer curve problems or uncompetitive taxation compared to other countries).
-- Creating a culture that results in citizens disparaging ambition, work ethic, learning practical skills, entrepreneurialism, and achievement.

If you look at all of these as being summarized by one value -- let's call it "What not to do" -- and you look at history and current countries, you can clearly see that when you turn up the "what not to do" knob, your economy tends to become a piece of crap, and when you turn it down, things tend to get a lot better.

I leave it as an exercise for the reader to figure out if we have been in a time of the knob being turned up or down.

Offline matt

  • Silver Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1136
Re: DOW minus 329 points-another recession ?!
« Reply #131 on: October 25, 2014, 11:12:59 AM »
---and keep falling,90 minutes more ; did Ebola hit the Wall Street casino ? : :(

http://www.marketwatch.com/

Dont worry GHI the feds will print more money here in the US nothing to worry about  :rofl