Author Topic: Weather Today and Yesterday  (Read 2947 times)

Offline Copprhed

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Re: Weather Today and Yesterday
« Reply #15 on: April 21, 2015, 07:28:22 AM »
Actually, the incidents of severe weather and hurricanes have been on the decrease the past several years. I suspect the difference is even more profound today due to the fact that a good number of Tornados and a few hurricanes which could be detected today via advanced satallite and Doppler radar would have gone unnoticed 50 years ago. Another underlying factor pertaining to an "increase of severe weather" is the media namely the weather channel. Naming winter storms give me a break.
Please give some evidence that they are decreasing. The majority of climate scientists AROUND THE WORLD pretty unanimously say that sever weather is on the increase, statistically.
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Offline Chris79

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Re: Weather Today and Yesterday
« Reply #16 on: April 21, 2015, 09:14:28 AM »
Tornado count the last 4 years.
The average number of tornados in the U.S is 1253
 2012 933
 2013 811
 2014 663
 2015 107 so far, 18th percentile for the year to date

I would suspect if the last 4 tornado counts took place in the 1970's or 1980's before Doppler radar was common the respective numbers would be significantly lower. Hurricane data is a bit more tricky to properly assertain. First, satallite technology allows meteorologists to classify short lived open sea cyclones that would have otherwise gone unnoticed. Secondly, the requirements for classification seemed to have been a bit more blurred as of recent. Sometimes NOAA isn't exactly the most honorable of government institutions.



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Offline zack1234

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Re: Weather Today and Yesterday
« Reply #17 on: April 21, 2015, 10:30:16 AM »
So the end is nigh?
There are no pies stored in this plane overnight

                          
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Offline Copprhed

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Re: Weather Today and Yesterday
« Reply #18 on: April 21, 2015, 10:31:46 AM »
Tornado count the last 4 years.
The average number of tornados in the U.S is 1253
 2012 933
 2013 811
 2014 663
 2015 107 so far, 18th percentile for the year to date

I would suspect if the last 4 tornado counts took place in the 1970's or 1980's before Doppler radar was common the respective numbers would be significantly lower. Hurricane data is a bit more tricky to properly assertain. First, satallite technology allows meteorologists to classify short lived open sea cyclones that would have otherwise gone unnoticed. Secondly, the requirements for classification seemed to have been a bit more blurred as of recent. Sometimes NOAA isn't exactly the most honorable of government institutions.
Ok so tornadoes are not as many, but other types of severe weather are increasing, along with this past winter being one of the warmest on record. If I have to bet, I'm going to bet on science.
« Last Edit: April 21, 2015, 10:33:52 AM by Copprhed »
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Offline earl1937

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Re: Weather Today and Yesterday
« Reply #19 on: April 21, 2015, 11:31:52 AM »
Ok so tornadoes are not as many, but other types of severe weather are increasing, along with this past winter being one of the warmest on record. If I have to bet, I'm going to bet on science.
:airplane: If you check the records, NOAA and the weather channel agree on one thing, there has been NO increase in the average daily temperature in the last 19 years.
However, I do agree that the weather patterns of the past are changing, for what ever reason! The reason I make that statement is years ago, when a cold front would come through the Southeast, it might be a 1 or 2 day event, then a strong N.W. wind would come in and clear everything out for 8 or 10 days. Now, when one comes in, most times it is a 3 or 4 day event, counting on the lingering rain after frontal passage. Why that is, I don't know, but there seems to be more IFR weather below 15,000 feet now days than used to be. I could be wrong about that, but that is the way that it seems now.
Blue Skies and wind at my back and wish that for all!!!

Offline Copprhed

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Re: Weather Today and Yesterday
« Reply #20 on: April 21, 2015, 02:36:54 PM »
:airplane: If you check the records, NOAA and the weather channel agree on one thing, there has been NO increase in the average daily temperature in the last 19 years.
However, I do agree that the weather patterns of the past are changing, for what ever reason! The reason I make that statement is years ago, when a cold front would come through the Southeast, it might be a 1 or 2 day event, then a strong N.W. wind would come in and clear everything out for 8 or 10 days. Now, when one comes in, most times it is a 3 or 4 day event, counting on the lingering rain after frontal passage. Why that is, I don't know, but there seems to be more IFR weather below 15,000 feet now days than used to be. I could be wrong about that, but that is the way that it seems now.
http://time.com/3750660/winter-warm-climate-change-noaa/
http://www.weather.com/science/environment/news/warmest-winter-on-record-earth
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/global/2015/2
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Offline Motherland

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Re: Weather Today and Yesterday
« Reply #21 on: April 21, 2015, 07:01:25 PM »
This is Beijing, China. No that is not fog.

(Image removed from quote.)

(Image removed from quote.)

eh it happens



nyc, 1966

it also should be noted that smog, while visually impressive and certainly unhealthy for the anything with a respiratory system, is no where close to invisible Greenhouse gases like CO2 and CH4
widespread persistent smog causes 'brown clouds' which actually cool the area by blocking out sunlight, as illustrated in this extreme sample from a mill town outside of Pittsburgh

the photograph was taken at noon

the idea that we shouldn't try to reduce emissions because China is also a big polluter is like a kid on the playground who thinks he's justified in throwing rocks at other kids because he's not the only one. just stop. don't throw rocks at people. the Chinese environmental movement is spooling up like crazy anyway.

on weather:
the problem with scientific coverage in the media is that it's always so stupid you wonder how the reporters can figure out how to breath through their noses. this goes left or right.
climate change causes climatic variability. it does not mean that the weather in your area will be more severe. it can lead to the weakening of some natural cycles and the strengthening of others, for example dimming from smog leads to less energy penetration from solar radiation which leads to less evaporation which leads to less precipitation. it may lead to local colder temperatures, for example in high latitude areas of the Atlantic ocean which will fall victim to a weakening of heat transfer through the Atlantic gyre as the Greenland ice sheet dumps in fresh water.
individual cold or warm or wet or dry events don't necessarily reflect anything about climate change, though. if the weather's colder than normal it's probably not because global warming screws up the weather like crazy as MSNBC may tell you, and it's not because global warming doesn't exist like Fox or Congress or those weird signs on the turnpike will tell you. it's just cold. that may be a result of local variability exacerbated by whatever, but the real effects of global warming are not it snowing in late march. weather's just weird.

arctic sea ice (or other systems vulnerable to global warming) experiencing rebounds doesn't mean that 'we finally did it CO2 sequestration is working!' or 'global warming was never real', either. long term trends are what's important. annual variability is... just that.
for examplepeople have been really stoked about arctic sea ice lately but:


is a pretty ominous curve

there's
so much
« Last Edit: April 21, 2015, 07:19:09 PM by Motherland »

Offline Mickey1992

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Re: Weather Today and Yesterday
« Reply #22 on: April 22, 2015, 10:01:05 AM »
Please give some evidence that they are decreasing. The majority of climate scientists AROUND THE WORLD pretty unanimously say that sever weather is on the increase, statistically.

Dr. Ryan Maue "5-year running sum of number of global tropical cyclones (1970-2015)
Stuck at 400 — lowest in this 45-year record.".

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/588393751908761600

Corroborated by Dr. Roger Pielke Jr.

https://theclimatefix.wordpress.com/2015/01/12/global-tropical-cyclone-landfalls-1970-2014/

Offline Copprhed

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Re: Weather Today and Yesterday
« Reply #23 on: April 22, 2015, 11:40:33 AM »
Dr. Ryan Maue "5-year running sum of number of global tropical cyclones (1970-2015)
Stuck at 400 — lowest in this 45-year record.".

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/588393751908761600

Corroborated by Dr. Roger Pielke Jr.

https://theclimatefix.wordpress.com/2015/01/12/global-tropical-cyclone-landfalls-1970-2014/
" The big killers in hurricanes are wind, storm surge and rain. Storm surge, for example, caused most of the flooding during Hurricane Katrina in 2005 in New Orleans, resulting in the breaching of the levees.  As storm intensity increases, so do those dangers.

"We should not be worried about the frequency of hurricanes; we should be worried about the frequency of intense hurricanes," said Kerry Emanuel, professor of atmospheric science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "Climate change is causing a greater number of intense storms. The total number of storms has remained constant, but the proportion of high-intensity events has gone steadily upward in most parts of the world. Scientific models and real-world observations both suggest that the frequency of intense storms is going up."
From this article: http://www.livescience.com/28489-sandy-after-six-months.html
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Offline Mickey1992

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Re: Weather Today and Yesterday
« Reply #24 on: April 22, 2015, 01:03:51 PM »
" The big killers in hurricanes are wind, storm surge and rain. Storm surge, for example, caused most of the flooding during Hurricane Katrina in 2005 in New Orleans, resulting in the breaching of the levees.  As storm intensity increases, so do those dangers.

"We should not be worried about the frequency of hurricanes; we should be worried about the frequency of intense hurricanes," said Kerry Emanuel, professor of atmospheric science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "Climate change is causing a greater number of intense storms. The total number of storms has remained constant, but the proportion of high-intensity events has gone steadily upward in most parts of the world. Scientific models and real-world observations both suggest that the frequency of intense storms is going up."
From this article: http://www.livescience.com/28489-sandy-after-six-months.html

Your reference article comes from someone with a doctorate in journalism.  Forgive me if I have more faith in people with doctorates in science.

The fact is that Sandy wasn't even hurricane strength when it made landfall.  When Marlene says "Sandy, clearly, was one of those extreme storms", clearly she is wrong.  It was simply a tropical storm that made landfall during high tide and it caused a very large storm surge.

The US has not been hit by a cat 3+ hurricane since 2005, and has not been hit by a cat 4+ hurricane since 2004, the longest cat 4+ drought on record.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html

The frequency of intense hurricanes is not increasing, nor is the number of 'intense' storms.

Offline Copprhed

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Re: Weather Today and Yesterday
« Reply #25 on: April 22, 2015, 01:58:00 PM »
Your reference article comes from someone with a doctorate in journalism.  Forgive me if I have more faith in people with doctorates in science.

The fact is that Sandy wasn't even hurricane strength when it made landfall.  When Marlene says "Sandy, clearly, was one of those extreme storms", clearly she is wrong.  It was simply a tropical storm that made landfall during high tide and it caused a very large storm surge.

The US has not been hit by a cat 3+ hurricane since 2005, and has not been hit by a cat 4+ hurricane since 2004, the longest cat 4+ drought on record.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html

The frequency of intense hurricanes is not increasing, nor is the number of 'intense' storms.
What was Hurricane Sandy? Cat 3, but was also called SUPERSTORM. If you READ, you will see the quote is from Kerry Emmanuel, PROFESSOR of ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES at MIT. I know...he's a journalist.....right? MIT is a wannabe school, too, right? 08 saw Ike, Cat 4.
« Last Edit: April 22, 2015, 02:03:57 PM by Copprhed »
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Offline zack1234

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Re: Weather Today and Yesterday
« Reply #26 on: April 22, 2015, 02:49:38 PM »
Motherland!

Those pictures are a fake and I believe you have produced them.

Are you North Korean?

We demand an answer before we pass judgment :old:
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Offline Chris79

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Re: Weather Today and Yesterday
« Reply #27 on: April 22, 2015, 03:58:52 PM »
At one point sandy was a Cat3 but at landfall it was not even a "Hurricane". This thread reminds me of "Animal Farm"....."Four legs good, two legs better"
 


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Offline MrKrabs

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Re: Weather Today and Yesterday
« Reply #28 on: April 24, 2015, 06:23:27 AM »
I heard they have to start naming my farts  :old:

Motherland is North Korean :old:

Ever notice the lack of storms named Zack?  :old:
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Offline Zoney

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Re: Weather Today and Yesterday
« Reply #29 on: April 24, 2015, 08:53:12 AM »
The "Zack" storm is what happens when the methane stored up in undersea ocean ice is release in a big gas bubble.  Also called an "Earthfart".  Very appropriate name therefore.
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