Stock market

[Hajo]

If you look at the market the last 20 years or so you will see in general bull markets last about 6 years.

We are at the 6 year mark of the recent bull market.  Just sayin'.

My advisor called me in, showed me some stats and figures of the markets history.  He suggested moving some money

and is advising and calling in his other clients about what should be done.  That is what I pay him for, his knowledge on the subject.

According to him a Bull Market is on the way.  The Fed is going to raise interest rates sometime you know, this is my opinion.  May be

coming sooner then we thought.  One thing I look at is heavy manufacturing, steel, Caterpillar , autos etc.  Many plants that

manufacture pipe for instance, have laid off great numbers of employees.  Heavy manufacturing usually, and I say usually not always,

portend the coming of an economical downturn or upturn.  BTW, the middle classes wages have actually held even or declined.  Since most of the

US wage earners are middle class, means they are less likely to spend on big ticket items and are more then likely to save if they can.

In reality, when someone realizes for a fact that the GDP is hardly budging, employment numbers, 37 million unemployed not the 5% or

so that is reported, is a fantasy land number, we are in trouble. Let's hope China keeps purchasing our treasuries 

Again just my opinion for what it may be worth.  I'm no expert by a longshot.

Also........if you are going to invest your money for retirement (401k etc.)  you owe it to your self to hire a wealth manager/financial advisor

with an established record of success.  They are educated, they watch your money 7 days a week/24 hours a day.  They know what they are seeing.

If you are going to manage your account it costs around 1%.  If you let them manage (and you should it's around 1.3%).  Don't take your

neighbors suggestion on what you should invest in.  Your future is to important.  401Ks are a great way to do that and you don't have to spend

huge amounts a month to purchase funds, stock bonds etc.  The earlier you start the more successful and secure you will be.  JMHO again.

If you now have a pension  and you are young don't plan on that pension being there when you retire.  Unless  you're employed by the Govt.

[DmonSlyr]

Yes, I do currently have a 401k also, that I started last year. It was a great to be able to open one and it is fun to watch it grow  . My company matches up to 3% and I currently put in 6%.

My SM account is with money I throw in instead of buying beer or going to the club. I toss like $25-$50 in there when I can. I am not concerned about losing my money. This is just another savings account that I will use in the future for something like a down payment on a house or whatnot. I am not risking my shirt on something that could potential turn fatal in 24 hours. The market has always reached new highs and I wont pull out my money just because I'm down a bit, though it is depressing.

Personally, I think we are in a semi-stable economy at the moment. I think people are finally able to just barely get by for now. Unfortunately, if companies do not do something about the wage gap in America, our country will get set in stagflation by them raising prices and that is not good. We are literally just hanging by a thread as our economy is slowly winding down from the past few years of growth. I hope that we can continue to slowly rise. Even still, there are always companies that will do well, like Dollar General or Dollar tree, that just thrive during bad times.

I've always wanted to make money, and I think the stock market is one of the easiest ways to make easy money. However, most people don't have the patients for it, much like reading a book. Most think it will take them too long and they can spend the money in better places. I think it is one of the best ways to save and grow money. Although there will always be down swings. The stock market always seems to reach new highs and levels, so IMO, if you get good Companies at a good price, you really cant fail in the long run.

[Ripsnort]

It's never too late to invest. Just think long term.
I started at 31 and now at 55 I'm able to retire with what I've earned on the stock market.
If I didn't have one more kid to put through college, I'd go this month! (I'm 55)

[Hajo]

Rip........your chart proves the 6 year Bull Market fact.  Look closely and you will see.  It is a 6 year cycle.

Hey!  Maybe it will last a little longer who knows????

Nice info Rip.

[Ripsnort]

Rip........your chart proves the 6 year Bull Market fact.  Look closely and you will see.  It is a 6 year cycle.

Hey!  Maybe it will last a little longer who knows????

Nice info Rip.

Dad (now 84, just returned from Fishing with him in Leech Lake, MN) has been invested in the market since the early 60's He retired in 1987' at age 57. His wealth has grown to 2.5 mil. He's not a big risk taker either.

He's the guy that told me "Think long term, think blue chips, save some slush fund for riskier stuff".

[RotBaron]

Good comm about this...see I knew we could do it without politics 

[Brooke]

My opinion.

Sometime between now and about 1-1.5 years into the Fed raising interest rates, or a bit after the US presidential election, we are in for a gigantic financial crash like 2008 or bigger.  Why?  Because the US (and most of the rest of the world) is in a historically gigantic debt bubble.

There is an enormous bubble in bond prices (clearly, since bond yields are near zero, and bond price moves as the inverse of the yield) and a smaller bubble in stock prices (as judged by metrics like the Shiller PE).

I've been an active investor since about 1990, and helped to found a hedge fund in the mid 1990's (so my profession was in the financial industry for a time).  Since 2008, I have never felt so unsure of where markets are headed or what is a good investment because the state of finance in the world is in uncharted territory, and critical determining events are being decided in secret by a handful of people who don't tell me their timing in advance.

I think that everything is overvalued:  bonds, stocks, commodities, real estate, and the US dollar.  I think that the stock market is poised for a crash, that real estate is poised for a crash, that bonds are poised for a gigantic crash, that once those things happen, commodities will crash, and that the US dollar will go up (as a temporary haven) and then crash vs. gold (as the Fed panics and starts pumping again).

But -- the stock market might go up yet more before this crash I see coming, so stocks aren't shortable yet.  Bonds don't feel shortable yet.  Nothing seems shortable yet.  "Short and hold" is generally not a good strategy.  So, I am left with wondering what the heck to do.  I'm mostly in cash, a little short the yen and Brazil, have about 15% gold and silver (for insurance, even though I more than half expect it to go down a lot before it goes up a lot), and have some puts (which have done horribly for me so far), with plans to get on the short side if I see some breakdowns, which might not happen for 2 years.  Or it could happen tomorrow.  Or never (as I could be completely wrong).

To me, recent history looks like this:
1997-1998:  Asian financial crisis, Russian financial crisis, and resultant collapse of Long Term Capital Management prompts Fed to provide a large amount of liquidity and keep interest rates lower than they otherwise probably should have been.  That money finds a home in the Nasdaq, helping (along with other factors) to inflate an enormous bubble there.  Fed sees this and belatedly starts creeping up interest rates, which helps to burst the bubble.
2000:  Nasdaq bubble bursts, causing the worst drawdown on a major US financial index since the Great Depression, causing havoc in the economy.  The Fed reacts by taking interest rates drastically lower and keeping them there for several years.  This (along with other important factors) helps create an enormous bubble in real estate and mortgage-backed securities.  The Fed sees this and keeps moving up interest rates, which helps to burst the bubble.
2007-2008:  Real estate and mortgage securities bubble bursts, causing a meltdown of our (and the world's economy), much worse than 2000 crash.  The Fed slams interest rates to zero, prints a new 1.4 trillion dollars, and the US government spends over $5 trillion on a bunch of stuff that had no long-term benefit to the economy.  The Fed keeps these rates at zero for the next *SIX AND A HALF YEARS* . . . and counting . . .  and I feel like I have a premonition of what is coming next.

In the past, I have been mostly a value investor -- buying stock in companies that I think are strong and holding it for a long time.  I can't do that in this market.

In this market, I feel like a cockroach looking up at a giant hovering boot.

I think that the universe is going to dish out a painful lesson about Keynsianism and debt.

[Hajo]

Reread my post.......stated Bull Mkt. on the way when I meant Bear.  Big difference.  I have to change coffee brands.

[DmonSlyr]

My opinion.

Sometime between now and about 1-1.5 years into the Fed raising interest rates, or a bit after the US presidential election, we are in for a gigantic financial crash like 2008 or bigger.  Why?  Because the US (and most of the rest of the world) is in a historically gigantic debt bubble.

There is an enormous bubble in bond prices (clearly, since bond yields are near zero, and bond price moves as the inverse of the yield) and a smaller bubble in stock prices (as judged by metrics like the Shiller PE).

I've been an active investor since about 1990, and helped to found a hedge fund in the mid 1990's (so my profession was in the financial industry for a time).  Since 2008, I have never felt so unsure of where markets are headed or what is a good investment because the state of finance in the world is in uncharted territory, and critical determining events are being decided in secret by a handful of people who don't tell me their timing in advance.

I think that everything is overvalued:  bonds, stocks, commodities, real estate, and the US dollar.  I think that the stock market is poised for a crash, that real estate is poised for a crash, that bonds are poised for a gigantic crash, that once those things happen, commodities will crash, and that the US dollar will go up (as a temporary haven) and then crash vs. gold (as the Fed panics and starts pumping again).

But -- the stock market might go up yet more before this crash I see coming, so stocks aren't shortable yet.  Bonds don't feel shortable yet.  Nothing seems shortable yet.  "Short and hold" is generally not a good strategy.  So, I am left with wondering what the heck to do.  I'm mostly in cash, a little short the yen and Brazil, have about 15% gold and silver (for insurance, even though I more than half expect it to go down a lot before it goes up a lot), and have some puts (which have done horribly for me so far), with plans to get on the short side if I see some breakdowns, which might not happen for 2 years.  Or it could happen tomorrow.  Or never (as I could be completely wrong).

To me, recent history looks like this:
1997-1998:  Asian financial crisis, Russian financial crisis, and resultant collapse of Long Term Capital Management prompts Fed to provide a large amount of liquidity and keep interest rates lower than they otherwise probably should have been.  That money finds a home in the Nasdaq, helping (along with other factors) to inflate an enormous bubble there.  Fed sees this and belatedly starts creeping up interest rates, which helps to burst the bubble.
2000:  Nasdaq bubble bursts, causing the worst drawdown on a major US financial index since the Great Depression, causing havoc in the economy.  The Fed reacts by taking interest rates drastically lower and keeping them there for several years.  This (along with other important factors) helps create an enormous bubble in real estate and mortgage-backed securities.  The Fed sees this and keeps moving up interest rates, which helps to burst the bubble.
2007-2008:  Real estate and mortgage securities bubble bursts, causing a meltdown of our (and the world's economy), much worse than 2000 crash.  The Fed slams interest rates to zero, prints a new 1.4 trillion dollars, and the US government spends over $5 trillion on a bunch of stuff that had no long-term benefit to the economy.  The Fed keeps these rates at zero for the next *SIX AND A HALF YEARS* . . . and counting . . .  and I feel like I have a premonition of what is coming next.

In the past, I have been mostly a value investor -- buying stock in companies that I think are strong and holding it for a long time.  I can't do that in this market.

In this market, I feel like a cockroach looking up at a giant hovering boot.

I think that the universe is going to dish out a painful lesson about Keynsianism and debt.

Yeah, the market is a lot different than it use to be. I don't say that from experience but just on the perception of the internet, like how easy it is to trade, do DD, manipulate with irrational articles from anyone, social media like stock twits, in general companies are easier to follow, and way  more day traders that spin off the actual value.

I feel like you are right, we have about 1.5 years before we go into another recession, unless the fed can actually keep us stable, however, like any cycle, you can either make a lot with a high risk, or go stable and make smaller gains, the market I imagine, is designed for high gains and high risks, therefore eventually it has to fall sharply to reset the value trend.

A Company you may want to do some DD and consider investing in is SO (Southern Company). Right now its glass floored at its low point and is soon to rocket up once again by 3Q ER. It hasnt failed in over 20 years. My GFs dad has been playing it for a while. The seems like a safe bet to me.

I'd also play dollar general, or dollar tree if you feel a recession coming on. People shop cheap in bad time, these places make a killing.

It is hard to make long term plays in this type of up and down economy, one day the market up 1.3% the next day it drops 300 points... The News makes it a lot worse with hype.

I wont even sell my investments if the market sinks again.  For me the upside potential is so great for a lot of companies. Once the train starts again companies will be so cheap. There will be investing like you've never seen before.

[RotBaron]

1.5yrs is not a long term investment horizon. If you are in the market to gamble, then play your cards.

If you are there to create wealth...markets go up, markets go down, markets have bubbles, markets crash and markets recover and soar.

As I see it, you are either a gambler or you will take your gains with some lumps mixed in for decades. That doesn't mean you never readjust...Gloom and doom is an easy to sell, especially with the taste of the "great recession" so fresh.

As I stated, Warren Buffet either lost $600 million in the recession or didn't lose anything because all of those investments have now recovered and many double or more for him.

There is no substitute for the time tested strategy of investing+time creates wealth (assuming the investor make decent investments and sticks to them). At least I've never heard of a substitute that wasn't be purported by someone trying to sell some secret or other baloney.

I don't agree with the premise that things like mutual funds and etfs are like the casino. Trading stocks and market timing, however, that is gambling in my opinion...

[Chris79]

I would advise caution at this juncture in time. Adventually the fed is going to have no choice but to raise interest rates, when that happens I would expect a correction in the market. Buying in after the correction would seem to be the prudent thing to do. Then again I have been expecting a rise in the rates for the last 1.5 years hence I sold out and put that currency in a money market account which has yielded next to nothing.

[morfiend]

Several years ago there was a thread about the stock market and IIRC it was a student doing a class project.

   I suggested the person invest in Canadian Banks because they have much tighter controls than US banks,so much so that many have opened divisions in the US.
,
  If a person would have invested as I suggested they would have seen atleast a 400% increase in value.

   I have had some money invested since the early 90's,much like Rip's father they are longterm blue chip stuff with a small amount in more risky stuff. I was and still am prepared to loose what I put into the risky stuff but so far it's all been good.

 In 06/ to 08 some of the investments went down,but I held fast and didnt sell,today all those loses are gone and I'm much further ahead then when I started!

   I'm just smart enough to know I dont know enough about all these financial stuff so I went to an expert for advice,helps when your wife is in the banking business and can get you advice for free.

 I do have some advice though,if your place of employment has a matching program,where they will add money if you invest in them then do it. Some will add 50% up to a max amount,these can be some of the best investments you can make!


  YMMV!


   

[DmonSlyr]

These are stocks I've done a bit of research on and thought they were going to do pretty well at the start of Dec 9th 2014. This reflects the stock price from Dec9th to March 18, 2015. The Total amount is how much I would have made off this watch list had I had 1 share/company. I had a great run up from THRM, CONN, CSIQ, DDAIF, DLTR, and SNE. They have dipped down just a bit and the total today is about $85, but in the future I will play many of these companies, especially if the market drops heavy again. The stocks SO and CAR are at its low points right now, so I expect to see them climb to about $58-60 respectively by the end of the year or so. The highlighted ones just mean they were over $3.00 increase in share price, though I didn't highlight IVW for some reason. DAR and DDD were the only 2 that haven't really shown me anything lately, and 3D printing has taken a huge down fall this year, (check SSYS) so I might remove them from this list soon.

Just thought I'd share




Serious money could have been made in the last 4 months off some of these companies.

[RotBaron]

Jump down, turn around, and watch the market go nowhere...

As Gary K has said lately it's nice to see a defensive day, then followed by a little offense.

Funny thing is my mutuals have hardly been hurt by the volatility lately. Maybe the bears are getting to me, but I think more than the 10% correction most have predicted for years is coming. Now I'm saving and will try to buy when that time comes...just my $.02 but I don't like what I'm seeing/hearing and if/when a 20% or more drop comes, I'll be ready to buy again.

I however will not cash in at this point or really any point in the next 20 years, just adjust here and there.

Still not playing stocks...an ETF I've had my eye on for quite some time will have a lot of appeal though if that correction comes.