for the Math minded types

[Ciaphas]

we have three pieces of information that can help us solve this.

Knowns:

height: 12,000
Distance: 7 miles (convert to ft)

estimates:

time to impact: ~79 sec

This can solve for speed.

speed= 318.987 mph

This is in a controlled decent and is not dependent on wind and the lack of pilots controlling the aircraft.






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[pembquist]

I would think that to work up some probability on where you would find the seats you want to know how the seat behaves at a given ejections speed, in other words how how far it would travel without regard to wind before its descent is more or less vertical and then modify that for the speed of the aircraft when the ejection happened. Is there any source of test data for this? Or failing that is there a database for similar accidents that would have useful information you could extrapolate from?

I would think failing any more information you could start with two points on a line that is an extension of the heading of the aircraft when ejection occurred. One point would be the furthest distance an object could have traveled assuming no drag if you dropped it from the aircraft at the same time as ejection the second point would be to use the same starting conditions but use a number for drag based upon someones informed opinion. If you erred on the side of too much drag the seat should be somewhere between the points with some allowance for wind effect.

You could also just start with the one point on the line using the assumption of no drag as that would be the furthest the seat would likely be able to .travel.

[Vulcan]

What about if they started on a conveyor belt?

[Ciaphas]

Turns out, the pilots have no idea where they punched. You would think that RAPCON or the Tower would have that information or an approximate location. So there are three terrain types that are possible sites for the ejection: Field, dense tree and the dreaded lake... .

9 hrs of searching and nothing to show for it.


a tid bit: the texan created a 5 ft deep crater on impact.


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[Easyscor]

If you know the plane's heading in the last minutes, and the impact point, the seat should be within, say 80 seconds flight time back along the flight path, adjusted for wind. Where's the lake? 

[Ciaphas]

less than a 1/4 mile from impact. It's been pretty remarkable the amount of disorientation that has been shown by aircrew.




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[Puma44]

Turns out, the pilots have no idea where they punched. You would think that RAPCON or the Tower would have that information or an approximate location. So there are three terrain types that are possible sites for the ejection: Field, dense tree and the dreaded lake... .

9 hrs of searching and nothing to show for it.


a tid bit: the texan created a 5 ft deep crater on impact.


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RAPCON radar track should have been saved.  If so, it can be reviewed to determine this point of ejection.  More than likely, the accident investigation board has already done this.  Also, winds aloft data for that day and time should be available to help determine drift components.  Keep in mind that ejecting is a very high stress event and knowing the exact point over the ground is probably way down at the bottom of the pilot’s priority list, especially if it was an out of control event, in the wx, etc.

[Vraciu]

Turns out, the pilots have no idea where they punched. You would think that RAPCON or the Tower would have that information or an approximate location. So there are three terrain types that are possible sites for the ejection: Field, dense tree and the dreaded lake... .

9 hrs of searching and nothing to show for it.


a tid bit: the texan created a 5 ft deep crater on impact.


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When I was an instructor in San Antonio I saw where a T-6 crashed south of Stinson Field.   It was funny how the Air Force had a big canvas wall erected along the road but we buzzed right over it taking photos while doing touch-and-goes.    Lol.

[Ciaphas]

haha, they will be debriefing the pilots after the safety team gets here tomorrow


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[perdue3]

Feet per mile is not a linear equation. The mile is the X and the 1714 ft is the Y. If it has not been solved yet, give me a few minutes.

Given your 79s estimation, the speed the object travels, on a lateral plane, is 318.987 mph. The problem is the fact that 318 mph is a mean number and it likely only traveled that speed once. The speed of the object is much slower at miles 0-2 than it is from 4-7. Also, this problem was impossible without time.

[Ciaphas]

This conversation is irrelevant at this point.

The aircraft either flew through or got pulled in to a tornado, this is as per the aircrew.

Those seats could be anywhere at this point.

Not sure how something like this happens as I'm not a pilot. One bit of information worthy of note is the T-6 is not weather radar equipped, neither is the T-38. This may have played a major role in to this event.

I do appreciate all of the help guys!2


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[Devil 505]

The aircraft either flew through or got pulled in to a tornado, this is as per the aircrew.

Those seats could be anywhere at this point.

Ouch! Thankfully the crew is alright.

[Ciaphas]

one of the pilots face had ice on it when he hit the ground. crazy stuff for sure


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[Vraciu]

Reminds me of Lt. Col. William Rankin.   “The Man Who Fell Up.”

[Ciaphas]

These two cats are lucky to be alive for sure