Author Topic: The Great Unwinding  (Read 6012 times)

Offline CptTrips

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Re: The Great Unwinding
« Reply #15 on: July 15, 2022, 11:03:54 AM »
Unemployment could double and would not be a problem statement shows the stupidity of your mindset.

Current unemployment is running at 3.6%.

In a "perfect" economy unemployment is 4%. 

7.2% unemployment would be on the high side, but hardly cataclysmic.  Preferable to inflation spiraling prices into the stratosphere.

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Offline zack1234

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Re: The Great Unwinding
« Reply #16 on: July 15, 2022, 11:12:45 AM »
Which BOOK did you obtain your financial outlook ?

Not cut and paste

Not Kimmel

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Offline CptTrips

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Re: The Great Unwinding
« Reply #17 on: July 15, 2022, 11:31:02 AM »
Which BOOK did you obtain your financial outlook ?

Zack has an extensive daily reading list.  Even if he occasionally needs help with the big words.

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Offline morfiend

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Re: The Great Unwinding
« Reply #18 on: July 15, 2022, 11:53:17 AM »
I like to see spot run,run spot run.

As for lake property yes I don’t expect it to go down in price, just to hold and not so many offers and surely not way above asking. I live near the Great Lakes,about a half hour from Erie or Huron and we’ve been looking for a place near the shores of Lake Huron.

There would be no mortgage so I couldn’t careless about interest rates,others may not be in that position so I’m hoping there will be more availability and fewer offers.

Offline Chalenge

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Re: The Great Unwinding
« Reply #19 on: July 15, 2022, 11:58:48 AM »
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« Last Edit: July 15, 2022, 12:00:30 PM by Chalenge »
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Offline save

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Re: The Great Unwinding
« Reply #20 on: July 15, 2022, 12:18:49 PM »
I don't know what Zack reads, but I know what he drinks:



You can expect western ( and China) workforce will have to change retirement age to about 70 years in the future.
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Offline CptTrips

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Re: The Great Unwinding
« Reply #21 on: July 15, 2022, 12:20:21 PM »
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Offline DmonSlyr

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Re: The Great Unwinding
« Reply #22 on: July 15, 2022, 01:00:19 PM »
Low interest rates combat the fact that there is a huge divergence in hourly compensation (salary) to productivity and how much things actually cost. If interest rates were not low, nobody could afford to buy things that cost exponentially more than they did back when interest rates didn't matter because you made enough money to not need a loan.

If wages were congruent with corporate profits throughout the years, I don't think we'd have these sorts of issues. Trickle down economics that stops trickling at the very top. But hey, as long as Zuck, Bezos, and Musk take home $500b a year, all is well, right?

I think you make some great points here and I'll expand on that. The main "issue" with businesses not paying the correct labor is due to the fact that they pay based on a market rate, rather than what their business actually achieves in gross profit. For example, you will hire a parts tech at the counter for $19 an hour regardless of how much your business makes in gross profit. It's just what the industry rate is. If they have more experience maybe bump them to 23. Unfortunately, that is just the way it is. Sorta how in some businesses you cannot even get hired if you don't have a degree regardless if you have clout and 3 patents to your name with 30 years in the industry, (my dad).  Some businesses are stupid. Businesses also pay a payroll tax on every single employees labor. A payroll of 50k will cost the business another 5k more in payroll taxes a month, essentially about 60k a year. Payroll taxes also steal wages from workers. You arent making "80k" a year. You are making 65k a year after taxes. The company is paying you with money you aren't even getting. It's clear to me that businesses have not come to the idea that If they are doing better than their competitors, they should offer higher wages to people to get "the best worker" as you want the best coming to you to work for the better wage. It's getting there, but everyone understands eventually how hard it is to actually make payroll when you open a small business. A small store cannot afford to pay someone $30 an hour with too many employees at that rate. You have to take quality into consideration. For example, if you have a question in a store about where a product is and there is no one there, vs someone coming up to you asking if you need help. Not all businesses are smart businesses either. I've never been able to figure out why sales people get all of the credit with commission checks and no one else who processes all of their crap for them gets any of it.

Increasing prices is not always the best solution. Economy of scale and diminishing returns comes into play where you start increasing prices too high. Unfortunately, many businesses are forced to increase prices when hit with higher taxes because they need to keep their net profit inline along with paying the higher cost of their vendors increased prices. Once those expenses become so high they eventually cannot keep up with the market and have to close down because they cannot sell their products at too high of prices. This is when the recession hits and now no-one can afford anything. When they increase monetary printing, it is created without any productivity and therfore decreases the value of it. Thats my way of looking at it. It gets spent artificially and causes major supply shortage issues. Those supply issues are what forces companies to increase prices due to not having enough supply to maintain the rampant demand. That's when you go into a supply recession, which is I think what you are seeing now. It forces everyone to pay more until they no longer can sustain it.

Once rates increase, it costs businesses a lot more to borrow. That means their interest expense increases and forces them to raise prices to cover the cost of increased interest expense. This also slows down businesses growth in investment which doesn't create jobs.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2022, 01:06:20 PM by DmonSlyr »
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Offline CptTrips

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Re: The Great Unwinding
« Reply #23 on: July 15, 2022, 01:09:18 PM »
I like to see spot run,run spot run.

As for lake property yes I don’t expect it to go down in price, just to hold and not so many offers and surely not way above asking. I live near the Great Lakes,about a half hour from Erie or Huron and we’ve been looking for a place near the shores of Lake Huron.

There would be no mortgage so I couldn’t careless about interest rates,others may not be in that position so I’m hoping there will be more availability and fewer offers.


I'd love to live on a lake.  I've thought about taking some of my retirement money and buying a lake house and then turning around and monetizing it with a reverse mortgage. Those can be tricky but can work for you in certain circumstances.  Sort of like buying an annuity that I can live in.  I couldn't care less if the bank gets it when I die.



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Offline Shuffler

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Re: The Great Unwinding
« Reply #24 on: July 15, 2022, 01:25:20 PM »
If you want to make some of the profits, open your own business and experience the risk side too.
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Offline morfiend

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Re: The Great Unwinding
« Reply #25 on: July 15, 2022, 01:39:52 PM »

I'd love to live on a lake.  I've thought about taking some of my retirement money and buying a lake house and then turning around and monetizing it with a reverse mortgage. Those can be tricky but can work for you in certain circumstances.  Sort of like buying an annuity that I can live in.  I couldn't care less if the bank gets it when I die.


Well a reverse mortgage is just a secured line of credit but I get it.

We’re thinking along the lines of an air b&b,rent it out for the weekends and stay there during the week when the beaches aren’t so busy. Then of course we would add our kid to the title so when we pass the kid gets it without tax implications.

Weekend rates can be quite lucrative and a single weekend would cover more than the monthly expenses. My wife would make it her permanent residence and I’d keep our house in the city as mine,no capital gains taxes would need to be paid. My kid and his wife could do the same thing and we plan to pass on our house to our grandson,he’s not of legal age to put on the title yet.

Offline guncrasher

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Re: The Great Unwinding
« Reply #26 on: July 15, 2022, 01:53:02 PM »

I'd love to live on a lake.  I've thought about taking some of my retirement money and buying a lake house and then turning around and monetizing it with a reverse mortgage. Those can be tricky but can work for you in certain circumstances.  Sort of like buying an annuity that I can live in.  I couldn't care less if the bank gets it when I die.

don't think you can get a reverse mortgage on a second home.  not sure if a reverse mortgage is taxable if so you'll pay taxes twice.  one you cash out your retirement and again if reverse mortgage is taxable.


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Offline Spikes

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Re: The Great Unwinding
« Reply #27 on: July 15, 2022, 01:53:29 PM »
I think you make some great points here and I'll expand on that. The main "issue" with businesses not paying the correct labor is due to the fact that they pay based on a market rate, rather than what their business actually achieves in gross profit. For example, you will hire a parts tech at the counter for $19 an hour regardless of how much your business makes in gross profit. It's just what the industry rate is. If they have more experience maybe bump them to 23. Unfortunately, that is just the way it is. Sorta how in some businesses you cannot even get hired if you don't have a degree regardless if you have clout and 3 patents to your name with 30 years in the industry, (my dad).  Some businesses are stupid. Businesses also pay a payroll tax on every single employees labor. A payroll of 50k will cost the business another 5k more in payroll taxes a month, essentially about 60k a year. Payroll taxes also steal wages from workers. You arent making "80k" a year. You are making 65k a year after taxes. The company is paying you with money you aren't even getting. It's clear to me that businesses have not come to the idea that If they are doing better than their competitors, they should offer higher wages to people to get "the best worker" as you want the best coming to you to work for the better wage. It's getting there, but everyone understands eventually how hard it is to actually make payroll when you open a small business. A small store cannot afford to pay someone $30 an hour with too many employees at that rate. You have to take quality into consideration. For example, if you have a question in a store about where a product is and there is no one there, vs someone coming up to you asking if you need help. Not all businesses are smart businesses either. I've never been able to figure out why sales people get all of the credit with commission checks and no one else who processes all of their crap for them gets any of it.

Increasing prices is not always the best solution. Economy of scale and diminishing returns comes into play where you start increasing prices too high. Unfortunately, many businesses are forced to increase prices when hit with higher taxes because they need to keep their net profit inline along with paying the higher cost of their vendors increased prices. Once those expenses become so high they eventually cannot keep up with the market and have to close down because they cannot sell their products at too high of prices. This is when the recession hits and now no-one can afford anything. When they increase monetary printing, it is created without any productivity and therfore decreases the value of it. Thats my way of looking at it. It gets spent artificially and causes major supply shortage issues. Those supply issues are what forces companies to increase prices due to not having enough supply to maintain the rampant demand. That's when you go into a supply recession, which is I think what you are seeing now. It forces everyone to pay more until they no longer can sustain it.

Once rates increase, it costs businesses a lot more to borrow. That means their interest expense increases and forces them to raise prices to cover the cost of increased interest expense. This also slows down businesses growth in investment which doesn't create jobs.
You certainly aren't wrong.

The issue with wage stems from the stagnation that happened back in the 70s. People were just fine with it as it got worse and worse. Corporate profits skyrocketed and wages stayed the same. Now, people want more than the 'market rate' that has been 'set' by these various jobs and industries for a long time mainly because the cost of living is so much higher. The corporations can of course afford to pay these wages but refuse to because typically there is usually someone willing to work for less.

Just my non-boomer-old-white way of looking at it.

I agree - businesses should be out there trying to hire the best workers for the job and pay accordingly to get those people, but then that would effect their bottom line and CEO wouldn't be able to buy the new 2023 Ferrari.
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Offline CptTrips

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Re: The Great Unwinding
« Reply #28 on: July 15, 2022, 02:06:10 PM »
don't think you can get a reverse mortgage on a second home.  not sure if a reverse mortgage is taxable if so you'll pay taxes twice.  one you cash out your retirement and again if reverse mortgage is taxable.

It would be my main residence.  There are a couple of lakes within 30 min of my land.  The lake house would be my main residence and the land where I go on the weekend to get away from all the jet-skiers.

I'd buy the house out of my Roth IRA.  No tax on that.

Reverse mortgages revenue are not taxable. 

https://www.irs.gov/faqs/other/for-senior-taxpayers/for-senior-taxpayers#:~:text=No%2C%20reverse%20mortgage%20payments%20aren,to%20live%20in%20your%20home.

There are different ways to set it up.  The way I would prefer is like Morfiend suggested.  It sets up the reverse mortgage amount as a line of credit.  Instead of getting a monthly check.
There are months I might want to pull from it and months I might not.  Some months I may want more than others.  In the end, I only pay pack what I withdrew so given high appreciation of lake property, I might still come out ahead.

Essentially it would allow me to have the lake house while still allowing me access to a appreciable amount of the money I used to buy it without having to sell it to access the equity.




[Edit]  The difference between a reverse mortgage and simply a HELOC is with a HELOC I have to start paying back\interest on what I take out immediately.   With a reverse mortgage I don't pay anything until I die or sell the property.



« Last Edit: July 15, 2022, 02:18:53 PM by CptTrips »
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Offline CptTrips

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Re: The Great Unwinding
« Reply #29 on: July 15, 2022, 02:12:09 PM »
The issue with wage stems from the stagnation that happened back in the 70s. People were just fine with it as it got worse and worse. Corporate profits skyrocketed and wages stayed the same. Now, people want more than the 'market rate' that has been 'set' by these various jobs and industries for a long time mainly because the cost of living is so much higher. The corporations can of course afford to pay these wages but refuse to because typically there is usually someone willing to work for less.

Just my non-boomer-old-white way of looking at it.

I agree wage stagnation and excessive income inequality are real problems.

I just argue that creating serial boom\bust gyrations from excessively loose money policy doesn't do regular folks much net good. 

Did regular folk generally profit from the Tech crash?

Did regular folk generally profit from the GFC crash?

Not that I can see. 

« Last Edit: July 15, 2022, 02:18:43 PM by CptTrips »
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