Pop goes the market

[Eagler]

I hope it goes down..quickly so the recovery can begin

The longer they drag this out the deeper and longer the pain will be felt imo

I see nothing getting better in 2023 if they are serious about reining in this record inflation...some might finally admit we are in a recession as we truly balance on falling into depression by then..

Best make sure the ink cartridges stay fresh in those free money printers as you never know when you will have to fire them up again in super print speed mode...

Eagler

[bj229r]

The longer the interest rates stay high, businesses will start failing, housing construction will ebb, and unemployment will rise. Not gonna be a quick one this time

[CptTrips]

The longer the interest rates stay high, businesses will start failing, housing construction will ebb, and unemployment will rise. Not gonna be a quick one this time

And if they don't raise rates you'll be taking a wheel barrel of cash to go get a loaf of bread.
It's a conundrum. 

The problem is, pain is already baked into the cake.  The system has been too far deviated from equilibrium to snap back without breaking something.  There is no graceful way to revert back to the Mean at this point. 

You can choose to get kicked in the stones or a broken nose.  Either way, it's gonna hurt.

[Citabria]

What is the estimated value of the stock market? $49 trillion.

How much US currency in all forms existed in 2020? $4 trillion.

How much US currency in all forms exists in 2022? $20 trillion.


The market has never made a profit but we are meant to think it did. The Monopoly money we are forced to use has been counterfeited since 1913 in quantities beyond imagination by the Federal reserve itself.

https://www.audible.com/pd?asin=B00DZUGWX6&source_code=ASSORAP0511160006&share_location=library_overflow

The Creature from Jekyll Island is worth a read or listen if you are interested in why all of this is happening and has been happening for ages.


Taxes pay for only a small percentage of US government expenditures.

As for market BS… If you haven’t already moved your 401k into an uninvested PCRA or at least to the money market like you should have in 2021 expect more losses on a grand scale on top of the devaluation losses caused by multiplying 4 x 5 = 20 out of nothing.

The money left is worth 1/5 what it was two years ago but only an estimated $8 trillion of the now $20 trillion has made it into the hands of the peasants, serfs and middle class hence why most prices have doubled in commerce.

$12 trillion of the $20 trillion in existence more or less remains to flood the system and it will in time and that is just what has been created so far.

“They” have unlimited money created out of nothing and intentionally devalue what you have to monopolize everything.

The market never went up. The value of your shekels went down and the only option “they” allow the masses to partially counter this devaluation is a corrupt stock market casino that is overvalued at $49 trillion and dropping when all US currency in existence today is $20 trillion.

This is the largest Ponzi scheme of all time.

[Eagler]

The Creature from Jekyll Island....this!

Fester hit all the nails on the head imo and is why we are not anywhere near a real bottom

I don't believe they have the stones to break it as badly as needed to restore true value..instead they will drag this out to get interest rates up just bit more and QT vacuum some of the chump change out of it but imploding pensions among many other ramifications caused by this fraud correction attempt will force the "pivot" back to full blown QE and lower rates again doing nothing but making the rich richer while spinning up the next bubble

We implode then as the globe is over our greed and foolishness and select a new reserve currency back by something other than debt and a military ...which might be the only action left in an attempt to pull the country out of a nose dive

And all of this would have been avoided if greed wasn't the main motivation these days..

Fasten your seat belts as way too many regular folks will see much turbulence ahead imo

I pray I am incorrect on this for sure...

Eagler

[CptTrips]

You can squeak and whine about the Fed all you want (you're not completely wrong), but unless you get elected king, it is what it is. 
I'm old enough to have given up worrying about saving the world.  I assume I'm not personally going to be given authority to reorganize the world's economic system at this point. Pffft.  Their loss.

I reserve my energy for trying to understand the nature of the current state and how to profit off it instead of being crushed by it. 

I closed out all my long positions last Dec.  My only investment now is in a fund using options to short the market, so I can profit as it's going down.   Does that make my views about an impending crash self serving?  Yes.  But I bought that fund because I already believed the crash was coming, not the other way around. 

History doesn't repeat, but damn, some times it rhymes.  This is pretty freaky...

[CptTrips]

What is interesting about that chart at the moment is what does it portend for the rest of the year.  The curves don't correlate 100%  so it's hard to discern whether we are in for a final bit of Bear rally before the final roll-over.

We usually have a Santa rally.  That wouldn't surprise me.  Fund managers  who have a requirement to hold a certain percentage of assets in equities and have been in cash these last months have to buy up some stock to satisfy their year end statements.

On the other hand, a lot of people are looking at losses for the year so there could be a lot of tax loss selling to balance out a Santa rally.

In either case, I don't see this current business cycle as having hit bottom.  Not sure what the rest of this year holds, but I believe a large chuck of next year is going to be that long slay ride to Hell.   I think it will be worse than 2008 and 2001, but not as bad as 1929.
 

[CptTrips]

On a happier note, I think inflation will moderate significantly by next spring.  2%?  No, I don't think so.  But 4% would be a huge help for a lot of people.  Right now wage workers and retirees are getting crushed at 8%+.