Valid point.
Yeah, but anything is "possible".
It's possible the whole thing was filled with hard candy like a piñata. That's "possible".
It just doesn't pass the smell test. It's obvious we can track that all the way from China even if it wasn't publicly announced. I have faith in NORAD.
It would be an exceedingly poor, slow, vulnerable, easily traceable weapons platform. I doubt it has much additional bomb load capacity. There are just some many better ways of smuggling any weapon you are imagining without it being so easily traceable back to them.
It doesn't even make much sense to me as a surveillance platform. They have plenty satellites. So do the Russians(spit) and I assume they are buddy buddy and share intel.
All that is possible, but just seems bizzarro and would imply the Chinese aren't as smart as I gave them credit for. That is possible too.
The highest probability is that is was a surveillance balloon, but it just seems hard to understand why. In the past the CIA used them to collect air samples to look for evidence of nuclear testing. I think the Chinese know we have nukes.
It does make me very suspicious if this was designed to create a embarrassing propaganda trap for the US. Build something that looks scary. Launch it knowing it will be easily trackable. Make it transmit weird signals that play on our paranoia. Goad them on the internet until they shoot it down. Then wait until the US has to sheepishly announce that it was just filled with meteorological equipment. Then use that incident as a propaganda weapon in the coming year as thing heat up around Taiwan. Portraying the US as dangerous war mongering and trigger happy. Shooting down innocent weather balloons. Gives them political cover for shooting down a US recon plane over the South China Sea which they claim as their territory. Tit for tat. That's the only scenario that would make sense to me given the facts. A propaganda ploy to embarrass the US. It would be very Sun Ztu. I just fear we are being played.
I'm not saying it was an immoral or illegal act to shoot it down. Certainly better to do it over water, but probably would have been better over Alaska. It's low odds it would hit anything in Alaska. Maybe a moose. If there was any fear it was a weapon system the military would not have waited while it crossed the entire land mass of the United States. If it was surveillance, then then the benefits of a shoot down are less clear. You always have to weigh what you gain vs what it might cost. I certainly don't want to hand them a propaganda win.
But honestly, I'm somewhat glad they shot it down because now I am REALLY curious as to what's in it.
