The answer is the squads flying Axis this time were UNDER their numbers and the squads flying Allied were OVER their numbers. Now it wasn't every single squad that was, but in one frame, 5 Allied squads were over (and none under) and 4 Axis squads were under (and none over).
Ghstdncr, I pretty much did use the average of what the squads had been doing in previous TODs. For example, the AKs were only listed at 7-10, but I treated them as 16-20 for balancing. Squads were blowing away their past actual numbers, not just their commitments. The CM team is discussing the matter on the CM forum. A solution will more than likely be in place before the next TOD sides are announced.
The solution to the Zeke problem is no more JABOing fleets. The American fighters can out dive any of the Japanese fighters. The Ki-61 can have some stability in a dive, but the N1K and the Zeke get very stiff, very quickly in a dive. It's very easy to dive and outrun them to target and then extend away from N1Ks and Zekes. So in future TODs, fleet attacks should be carried out by TBMs only on the Allied side. We have the plane in the planeset, we should use it for what it's designed for. The Hellcats and Corsairs can still be used to JABO land targets, where Ki-61s can possibly cover.