Hmmmm....
I for one don't think that offing the heads of state will accomplish any meaning improvement for the people. If I were to look for a Historic model for regime change from Dictator to Democracy I would look at the US occupation and institution of Government in Japan after WWII. We didn't simply Execute the Emporor and his higher ups, then walk away. We sat down pen in hand, wrote them a constitution, handed it to them, helped them institute this constitution, provided for their security and said good day. (although we are still there today, but that's more for us than them these days).
But I don't think that will go over in todays multipolor geopolitical setting. The US has been going over and over ideas for Regime change in Iraq. I think that Afghanistan was a pretty effective dry run for the first phase of an Iraq operation. That is, getting the current rulers diposed. But the problem with this comparison is that Afganistan is the opposite of Iraq... The First phase (deposing the current regime) was much easier than the second phase (setting up a democratic regime in its place). Afghanistan has been fighting civil wars for as long as nomads have watered thier horses there. Its practically a government on its own. I think that if we end up going after Sadam, we will find Iraq to be the opposite. The first phase will be considerably harder than it was in Afghanistan. There is no "Norther Allience" to send in to do the heavy fighting in the opeing campaing. There are resistance groups, but my understanding is that they are not as experiences nor as large as the Northern Alliance. However, I do not believe that it will be as difficult to set up a democratic regime in Iraq, once Sadam is diposed. But it must be done forcfully and quickly. The people must benifit from the new government as soon as possible, to prevent them from resenting the US. I don't think we can keep everyone from hating us, but in order for the new government to be accepted, the common people must believe that the government will help them, and not just the US.
Iraq has flirted with Democracy in the past. I believe that they can accept a democratic government if given the chance. But as long as Sadam can keep pointing to the US and saying "It's their fault that your lives suck!" then we can't get anywhere.
And the last thing the rest of the Arab world (with the possible exception of Iran) wants to see is a Democratic Iraq. The Emirs and Mullahs are pissing themselves whenever they think about this.
I guess... If we don't go after Sadam in the next year or two, we need to keep an eye on Qatar. If Qatar continues down the path of Democracy, we may well be able to provide the arab world with a blueprint for the True Islamic Republic. That might be what it takes for regime change in the region.
But I don't think that simlpy killing the heads of state over there will accomplish anything meaningful beyond killing those men. Someone will simply take there place, and without an incintive to improve, there will be no improvement.
-Sikboy
