In my opinion, the single biggest problem in understanding international relations, is sorting out truth from fiction, and keeping the two apart.
When you look at this from a distance, it's pretty obvious. If we knew for a fact how people would react, and everyone knew for a fact how we would react, there would not be no need for diplomats, no need for treaties. There wouldn't be arms races that didn't result in wars. Everything would be right there, laid out in front of you. But it's not. Instead, the world of diplomacy is not only clouded, but fluid. Things that were not true yesterday are true today. People you counted on this morning will betray you tonight. And this is true of all nations in all of the world. I'm neither condeming, nor aquiting any nation when it comes to their conduct of foreign policy when it comes to this basic understanding.
I think the United States is bluffing. I do not believe that the United States has the intention to invade Iraq. Rather, I believe that the US knows that only the credible threat of invasion will force Hussein to allow UN inspectors to grant full unconditional access to his WMD facilities.
The problem though, is that if the US is able to get broad based international support for this effort, it can go from a threat to a reality at light speed. Things are clouded and fluid, we never fully understand what either side is up to, or where they are going. To be accurate, I can only base my analysis on known actions, and by the time they can confrim or refute my belief, it's already too late. It's very frustrating.
-Sikboy
