Economy Woes Overstated?

[weazel]

Nope, still in neutral.

It was supposed to be facetious whgates.  

Originally posted by Toad
Oh, I "get" you, I think.

Like that guy 10Bears always used to link us to; that guy thought insults and childish name-changing could substitute for facts and rational, thought out arguments as well.

I think you're just like him.

I think you could be an enlightening contributor to a lot of these BBS threads. You apparently choose instead to be someone much less interesting.

[Fatty]

You never have quite clarified your position on those rebates there, weazel.

[funkedup]

Originally posted by whgates3
the built in shrinkage is to account for the goverment's underestimate infaltion figures & in no way accounts for the $ shrinking against foreign currencies.

In short, NO.  

You're going to have to prove the bit about inflation being underestimated.  Many economists argue that CPI overestimates inflation.

And some of the items that go into the CPI "shopping basket" are imports (or have imported inputs), so exchange rates DO have an effect on CPI.

And foreign currency exchange rates do have an effect on GDP.  One component of GDP is net exports (exports minus imports), which is most definitely affected by exchange rates.  In fact, ceteris paribus, a weaker dollar will increase net exports and thereby increase GDP.

But, it's not like the dollar is doing poorly vs. other currencies.  Look at the charts below.  If anything the dollar has increased its buying power in other countries since the "depression" started.

So changes in foreign currency exchange rates have not negated the gains we continue to make in Real GDP per Capita.  It remains a pretty darn good yardstick of our standard of living.

[lord dolf vader]

how long till your guy and your system makes it better ? you got all the power any predictions?

[DuBe]

Originally posted by funkedup
Sorry to hear that Poopy and Karnak.  
The numbers look pretty good though, so there must be some sectors doing well.  Who the hell are they.  

Health Care Industry, Drug Companies, Automotive (up 'n down but on the balance not to bad), to name a few.

A large chunk of this recession was precipitated by the telecom meltdown. When all those dot coms and later certain larger services providers went swirling down the bowl, that had a drastic effect on huge chunks of the Tech Manufacturing Sector. Then things just rippled from there. Wonder why Lucent is trading at 2.60 a share? that's part of the answer.


DuBe

[DuBe]

Originally posted by funkedup
In short, NO.  


So changes in foreign currency exchange rates have not negated the gains we continue to make in Real GDP per Capita.  It remains a pretty darn good yardstick of our standard of living.

 

Funkedup, your post are interesting and provide good data. Things in general aren't terrible but the question is: What next?

Large chucks of manufacturing capacity sitting idle (or worse liquidated) does not portend well for the future. When this situation turns around, I'll tend to be more optomistic. But not until then. Manufacturing is still the backbone of this economy, and tech appears to have some significant growth potential (albeit not 20% per year, that's for sure). When tech manufacturing makes some form of comeback I think we'll see a better climate in general.


DuBe

[hardcase]

The real problem is the majority of workers and small bidness ppl dont have any confindence in the Adminstration in the White House. We've seen it before. Deficit spending is back, while taxes are cut and a 1.6 trillion dollar surplus has vanished, all in a little under two years. I am not an economist, but I have very little confidence the economy is going to improve in two years. Just think..a Republican House Senate and White House can claim credit for it all.

HC

[funkedup]

Originally posted by lord dolf vader
how long till your guy and your system makes it better ? you got all the power any predictions?

Well I'm not a Republican so I can't answer the question.

But looking at the statistics, it is already getting better.  GDP going up, unemployment dropping, longest streak of Dow gains in 15 years.

[bong]

I dont believe the economy is in such a poor state either excluding the fact that a major war could be imminent sometime soon. With the fedral gov sending money elsewhere that will definately make things worse.

[Krusher]

Originally posted by hardcase
The real problem is the majority of workers and small bidness ppl dont have any confindence in the Adminstration in the White House.
HC

What do you base this on, the last election ?

[Eagler]

Originally posted by Krusher
What do you base this on, the last election ?

hehe - good one

1.6 trillion dollar surplus has vanished

was this a room full of dollars or just figures scribbled on paper by a previous admin based of an economy running inside a bubble which would never burst  

[funkedup]

Originally posted by DuBe
Funkedup, your post are interesting and provide good data. Things in general aren't terrible but the question is: What next?

Large chucks of manufacturing capacity sitting idle (or worse liquidated) does not portend well for the future. When this situation turns around, I'll tend to be more optomistic. But not until then. Manufacturing is still the backbone of this economy, and tech appears to have some significant growth potential (albeit not 20% per year, that's for sure). When tech manufacturing makes some form of comeback I think we'll see a better climate in general.


DuBe

DuBe I will try to find an article about this I read in The Economist, which can explain it better than I can.  Basically there is a trend towards manufacturing being a smaller and smaller part of the economy.  It's very similar to what happened to agriculture in the last 100 years.  Other countries are just going through this now - moving from agriculture to manufacturing as the largest part of the economy.  We are beyond that, and going to "the next level" IMHO.

[Toad]

RUN!

RUN FOR YOUR VERY LIVES!!!

SAVE YOURSELVES! VOTE INDEPENDENT/DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN/LIBERTARIAN!!

Oh... wait... that won't save you.....


It's the DREADED BUSINESS CYCLE!

US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions

Seems they happen all the time...... no matter who's in the White House.

OK, you can stop running now.

[funkedup]

DuBe this is not the article I was thinking of (that one seems to be part of their "pay" site), but it discusses the issue:
http://fox.rollins.edu/~tlairson/tnc/manufact1.html

[midnight Target]

Without reading this entire post, our company, in the fiscal year ending September 30th, had record sales and profits. We also have employed 200 additional people and built another plant.

Go figure?