What seems to be emerging in the conciousness of some people on this board and elsewhere is:
The war on Iraq is inevitable, even though every British cabinet member keeps saying it is not.
The inevitability is implicit, not explicit.
The war is about oil. Not in the "GWB is starting this war to personally profit through his oil connections" sense, because that really is irrational conspiracy theory. No, the war is about ensuring a controlling interest in middle east oil production on behalf of the industrialized nations whose economies depend on stable oil prices.
And a lot of us are uncomfortable about our taxes being spent on a military action in a 'far off land' for economic purposes. There's no doubt that the flow, price and availability of oil affect us all in our daily lives, and much as we might like to be free of it's influence, our futures are intimately intwined with the future of oil production and refinement. Some people think that this is reason enough to start a conflict. I for one do not.
Oil is addictive. The more we use it for fuel, plastics etc, the more we become dependent upon it. This has been going on for nearly 100 years. Perhaps we should be directing our efforts and resources to breaking the dependency rather than reinforcing it. That doesn't just mean investing heavily in renewable energy, but also into alternatives for oil derived products. No, it won't be easy, more difficult than war even, although I'm not suggesting one is an alternative to the other, merely that if we start now, maybe our policy makers won't feel compelled to start another war when for example China decides it wants exclusive dominion over the Spratley islands or something.
What shocks me is the transparency of the pretexts used to justify this impending conflict. Firstly it's about WMD, then it's about regime change, then it's about terrorism.
Each of these reasons has been tried out on the public, and seeing that many people (in the UK at least) do not accept these reasons individually as casus belli, the policy makers of Europe and the US have decided to roll all of them together in the hope that public opinion will tip in favour of at least supporting a deployment of troops.
Of course the UK and the US have been dropping munitions on Iraq on an almost monthly basis for the last 10 years, so in point of fact the conflict never ended anyway.
Saddam Hussein has to go. And if he has to go, is not right that we should measure the other dictators in the world with the same yardstick? There's no shortage of genocidal dictators past and present, but something tells me we aren't about to try and depose Jiang Zemin and install a democractic government in the PRoC.
In fact, what's so special about Hussein? He's just another name in a list of 20 or more dictators around the world, installed or endorsed by us, then deposed or killed by us or their opressed populations, when they have:
a) served their purpose
b)decided that getting in to bed with us was a bad idea.
c)abused human rights on TV
d)dared to have economic ideas above their station.
e)tortured enough people
f)generally behaved towards us in an uppity way
Iraq is a mess of our own making. If we do invade and depose, then we better make sure we leave the placein a better way than we found it. I can't say I'm hopeful that will be the outcome.