I think NASA is deemphasising the foam strike so that they can try to gather as much evidence and thouroughly examine as much as possible before theorizing.
Some of the problems of the tile repair scenario:
The shuttle bottom surface has nothing to hang on to.
You would need some sort of scaffolding so that a spacewalker could exert the necessary forces for the repair.
All the tiles are specifically designed for each placement.
You would have to develop some sort of bondo that would fill the void of a missing tile with most of the integrity of the original equipment.
If a bondo could be developed, does it cure in vacuum?
Perhaps you whittle a new tile out of a chunk of stuff on board. Does the adhesive work in space?
Does it cure in +/- 300F?
Does the repair cure in time, before the crew oxygen depletes?
Need to get a little ROV for flying around the shuttle to do reentry inspections.
If it had been known Columbia was damaged, would you send up a second shuttle to help, and risk launch damage on that one as well?