The FlightSim marketplace...there's gotta be more....

[Merlin]

I'll leave the threads for flight modeling and ammo loadouts to the history buffs. In the past couple I've been trying to figure out the flight sim markeplace...what it is today and how to grow it tomorrow.

Maybe Pyro can comment on this; I was looking at IMGK's financial disclosures on www.freeedgar.com.  For the first quarter of this year they claimed "on-line" sales of $467,000 compared to the first quarter last year of $358,000...a 30% increase which is good. However this is only $155,000 per month. Assuming 90% of this is Warbirds revenue (the remainder being the other iEN titles) this leaves $140,000 as total monthly revenue? Divide this by, say, $80 as the average most players log and this gives you a total Warbirds player base of 1,750 paying pilots...conservative max is 2,500.

For a small agressive company $1,500,000 per year with a couple of principal owners and some help is a pretty safe number. For a company with a lot more overhead it's a little scary...sure a lot of internet companies live in debt but the preference is to be in the black and stay away from creditors.

AW and MSFA have their own base but if they don't fly WB they probably are not in the Aces High target audience.

I suspect that a really great new sim could get 90% of WB's revenue base, sans Mac players and those that won't move right away. And I also suspect this sim could pull a lot of retirees out of hiding.

As for new games, first sim out will have an advantage since players will be climbing the FE and flight model curves and will be less likely to switch once hooked.

I am most interested though in what it's going to take to expand the market beyond the 2,500-3,000 "hard core" player base out there? There has to be a much larger potential marketplace for the right game.

What is the total size of on-line gamer subsciptions? 150,000? So WB gets about 1%??? Mighty low for a really high quality gaming experience. Why are the role playing games so popular? You can role play in a flight sim to a degree. Equipment is a factor, so is skill. How did they grow so fast? EQ is pretty new and boasts 100,000 subscribers? Really?

It's not just rates...something else is standing in the way.

Humm, just thinking out loud. Pyro and Hitech must be having a blast with this. I know I am and I already have a little company to run...LOL!

Merlin

[Toughgun]

My 2 cents worth here, Role playing is just that fiction, I believe WB is more then just that and therefore some people find it too real it also requires alot more skill then just a very fast PC (ever play Doom over the net ?) again $$$$$ out of that 100,000 members that one company boast's just exactly how many are are past puberty ? so is it safe to say that 10% of the total users on the net are paying customers ? and if thats the case the 1% is more like 10% of market share, makes the math look better but does not really add to the pocket book.


Guns out.

[Vermillion]

hmmmmm......

Do you really want to know the answer to that Merlin?

Most likely you don't, being a WB's player.

Now don't get me wrong, I'm a WB's player too, but I'm also a AW player (can't stand FA), so I get to see more sides of this equation.

 

AW and MSFA have their own base but if they don't fly WB they probably are not in the Aces High target audience.

Answer me this question. If WB's is currently having such a hard time surviving on its own small player base, how can a new game with only a portion of this base pulled from WB's, survive ? (I also think 90% is overestimating)

IMO it can't. To draw more players into the fold of a "ultra-realistic" Flight Sim (like we hope AH will be) you need a solid base of Relaxed Realism players, flying on a flate rate system.  This way they can learn to fly, and develope the skills they need to thrive and have fun, without bankrupting the family   We all know how difficult it (ie how many hundreds of hours it takes) is to become even an average pilot in WB's.

Currently, Warbirds easily has the best relaxed realism flight sim on the market and how many pilots fly there? Maybe 30 on a good night.  I don't see much market penetration there, not when compared to AW Relaxed Realism where you can find 5 to 7 Arena's all maxed out at 150 to 200 players on a good night. Anyone know what the crowds are like in Fighter Ace ?

And your correct, its not just about the rates. Its about having fun. And some people don't want to spend hundreds of hours and thousands of dollars to just get to the point where you can begin to have fun.

Me personally, I like WB's and AW Full Realism, but I also have a love of WWII aircraft that allowed me to get thru that hard learning curve.

Others just want to play a good "airplane game".

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Vermillion
WB's: (verm--), **MOL**, Men of Leisure, Goldlandia
AW's: (Verm) ACCS, Aerial Crowd Control Services, Cland


[This message has been edited by Vermillion (edited 08-10-1999).]

[Jochen]

For one WW II pilot wannabe, there is one WW II tank commander waiting for their first megaplayer experience.

Expand game to land warfare, expand possible customer base.

It is the way to go. Maybe not yet but this will be the way eventually. Amen.

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Obfr. jochen 'Stern von Afrika' 2./ Jagdgeschwader 27 'Afrika'

[oooo 111th Fighter Group]

    There are a lot of "Jochen's" out there (see post above) and I am one of them. But we are also sim pilots so someone is already getting our gaming dollars.  What I don't understand is why WB's or AH doesn't make a play for the Ground War money?
    The STEEP learning cruve in a realistic flight sim makes someone want to REALLY spend thise dollars.  But, if you included a range of ground vehicles and made them part of the war you could charge the same $2.00 an hour with a learning curve of about ten minutes.
    The tank drivers would get a ground war. Pilots would get ground targets. We would all get a new Strategic Model and there would be an increase in revenues.
    It seems like "Win, win"  for everyone.

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Otto CO 111th Fighter Group          ziggy2@home.com            
111th Fighter Group     www.cris.com/~ziggy2/      


[This message has been edited by oooo 111th Fighter Group (edited 08-10-1999).]

[This message has been edited by oooo 111th Fighter Group (edited 08-10-1999).]

[Beaz]

I think people are gradually cottoning on to what PlayNet might be upto. I'm one of those looking for the total battlefield simulation... anyone taken a look at Panzer Elite lately? More options means bigger player base which means more revenue and a less steep learning curve as opposed to a high fidelity flight sim like WB or AH. I'm just dumbfounded as to why nobody has done a high fidelity massively multiplayer armoured warfare sim that could be buttoned onto a flight sim for a ground/air war type environment.

Beats the hell out of me  

Regards

Daren

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Beaz
249 Squadron RAF "Gold Coast"
"With Fists and Heels"
Part of the Tangmere Wing

[Horn]

Hmmm, interesting ideas, folks. I believe one of the keys to getting any online game to run at a profit will be a regular influx of new players, new Internet customers (I read somewhere less than 30% of the States are online)and migrate the box-sim players to the "real" thing. Once these newbies actually arrive at the game, massive training info should be readily available, both in human and weblink flavors. Immediately. At the Game site. One should not have to do a dogpile search or lurk ata NG fer days just to decide the best peripherals for the game or to ask a simple question, or to spend some time w/ a trainer. Support these peeps. Massively. They are the bux of the future.

Even though I understand Pyro/HiTech's rationale, missing the Mac boat will definitely put a crimp into this expansion, simply because you have 2 million new users (this year) trying to figure out useful things to do with the big red (or blue, or pink, etc,) box that has been custom-made to make connecting to the Net as mindless as humanly possible. Apple has made a company out of making things easy, computer-wise. Apple's revenue numbers say they are on the right track. The sim company that makes it easy to find, join, learn, and play will win.

Another method of bringing new users aboard would be to incentivize all the legions of PC dweebs to bring friends, acquaintances, etc, into AH for some monetary/free play benefit to the bringer... nothing works better than referral business.

Hopefully, AH will not be another WB. All finances aside, if the WB code is so attractive, how come so many fly AW? If AH turns out to be a "best of both worlds" hybrid, be prepared to see a bunch of folks migrate from AW. While some of the current players are seriously over Kesmai, however, hum over on AW leans towards, "those guys are just gonna build another WB, watch Playnet instead...."

Ground War? Gonna hafta come up w/ a new name...Dueceandahalf Low?  

Horn

[Merlin]

Vermillion, thanks for the response. I didn't mean to slight the AW crowd but I have played it a bit and I just don't get why you would want to fly it. At least for me, I had already been flying WB for a bit and found the flight models and graphics to be terrible. Gunnery was so easy compared to WB that it looked like I was shooting flaming bowling balls, and if they were even a bit close I'd score a kill.

I did like some of the sound effects but overall I could not imagine logging any hours here. Did you start in AW then start playing WB? What draws you to AW and what keeps you from converting totally to WB? Just curious. I'm not trying to be a WB "snob" as they say, I just want to understand what draws players to the other sims.

BTW, I do agree that you need to draw players in using an EZ flight mode arena system running alongside an advanced arena. Here is another puzzle. If WB RR is the best in the market, why are there only 30-40 in the arena. Are there really 150-200+ players in AW or are they inflating the number for marketing purposes? I notice a total lack of MSFA pilots in these discussions but wish we had a couple to talk with.

I also agree with your point that not all players want to spend the big bucks to get to Sierra Hotel, but a lot do, so how do you accomodate their interest in long term growth versus the guy who just wants to furball a few sorites then go play Doom?

Merlin

[Hurc]

When will the ground war be implimented in AH ?

I remember ideas in WB of new users being put into a training squadron and trainers leading a few missions/classes before graduating into the MA. How about this for AH ?


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Steve "Hurc" Crane

[Merlin]

Hey Pyro, here are a few marketing ideas you might want to consider;

From reading AGW over the past few years it is apparent that the AVERAGE user for WB is age 35 and probably makes $50,000 or more. So if this is the target market, and you buy the idea that many in this age group could be potential users, and that most of this demographic has no idea that massive multiplayer games even exist, you need to reach them.

I had a couple ideas that may cost AH very little but could give you big exposure to this demographic. I would try to pick a big consumer PC maker like Dell or Compaq, team up to design a mid-level PC bundled with a joystick and rudder peds, put AH in a box and then go to specialty retailers like the Sharper Image and sell a total package for the Christmas Season. "For the guy who has everything...air combat in a box".  There are a bunch of these retailers out there who cater to the "price means nothing" marketplace. They are always searching for that really cool item they can make a big xmas splash with.

Another idea is to get into the flight shopping mags they put in the seat pockets on airplanes. There are a few companies out there who specialize in building these mags. Some are customized to the airlines and some just have 4-5 retialers with sections in them.

Neiman Marcus would be another target. Each year they pick 3-4 major funky gift items. Build a blow-out gaming PC that costs a ton with all the goodies bundles with AH and they might put it in as a featured gift item with a full page spread.

I suspect AH will not be far enough along this year to make the Xmas retailing time frame so these ideas may be better for next year.

I would also consider trying to figure out low cost advertising solution in high end mens magazines and sporting mags. Golf Digest, SI, Men's Journal, GQ. Maybe you could get write up's for free. On-line gaming is still in it's infancy and a lot of guys don't know it exists. I bet a lot of editors would add a page on AH as a "special interest" piece. It would be worth the money to higher a copy writer, put together some graphics and send out some press releases.

Assuming you have not already done all of this

Merlin

[skypi]

As a former Air Warrior flyer who graduated to Warbirds and then went broke trying to keep the same hours in the air up I would bring up the obvious point that its a flat ten dollars a month. Need I say more?
The flight models suck the scenery sucks but there are a whole lot of guys that like to fly togeather often and offer tight knit squadrons with alot of flying time togeather. Yes there are usually 600 or more in the air each evening till the wee hours.If your flying turns into an addiction then like liquor Cella does the same job as Don Parion giving you that warm feeling of belonging to something worth while.  

 

[Vermillion]

Sorry if I sounded Insulting Merlin, I didn't mean too. I apologize.

My point was that alot of WB's players feel that the only way to go is to only have the ultra-realistic, for $/hr.

Alternately, It was my opinon that a flat rate system, with a robust but easier simulation for RR/Quake types, and a advanced "ultra realistic mode" for players like us, would draw many more players and allow for more long term growth.

In my case, I started out in AW (AW4W on AOL) a couple of months before I did WB's, because my system wouldn't run WB's (version 0.9X).  

Then when I got my system up to speed, I was always worried about the cost$$/hr, and had a hard time trying to learn and have fun (extreme learning curve as we know), while watching a clock and Visa bill. After getting mauled for a while I decided to play mostly AW, where I could learn and not go broke, but I kept my WB account.

So I learned the basics in AW. ACM & SA became real things to me. I then graduated to Full Realism, and joined a great squad and started to fly scenario's, and became a member of a close knit community.  But I always stayed in WB's and flew about 5-10 hours per month.

About 2 years ago, I guess I slowly converted over to mostly WB's for arena play because of the more advanced features. And I spend most of my flying time in WB's now.

But I still have my AW account, fly with my squad occaisonally, and like to participate in Scenarios' (which I sometimes help run and produce, as a member of their Scenario Masters Guild).

It isn't always about the features, Its often about the people.

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Vermillion
WB's: (verm--), *MOL*, Men of Leisure, Goldlandia
AW's: (verm) ACCS, Aerial Crowd Control Services, Cland


[This message has been edited by Vermillion (edited 08-10-1999).]