Indeed it is an imperialist war for oil...

[crowMAW]

Originally posted by Pepe
CrowMAW, I am not an american myself, so my knowledge is only limited.

And that is why I recommended that you research the neo-conservatives.  Try it...put "neo-conservative wolfowitz" in to Google and read a little about them.  Your post indicated that you thought this war was about terrorism.  It was not.

True enough, I have no crystal ball.  But it does not take a fortune teller to read survey polls done in Arab countries to see that the USA's approval has dropped significantly in the last 6 months (and in some cases nearly to zero) and to realize what that means and how that effects the attitude of Arabs toward Americans.  

It also does not take a crystal ball to realize that the Iraqis dancing in the streets would not have been potential terrorists against the US anyway.  However, we now have a cadre of former Saddam fanatics who previously were occupied oppressing their own people who now have time to direct their anger elsewhere.  Where do you think that anger will be directed?

You are fortunate that you will not suffer the brunt of the terrorists attacks.  On the next Achille Lauro you will be able to show your Spanish passport and live while I and other Americans may be pushed overboard.

Unfortunately, I will have to live with the consequence of my country providing a service to the Iraqi people by ousting Saddam Hussein.

As far as your comment on the Iraqi oil reserves...Iraq has 12% of the world's proven oil reserves, about 360 billion bbls.  At $20 per bbl that is over $7 trillion in today's dollars.  I think they will be able to afford what reconstruction the US does not pay for.

[Puke]

Basra in '91 is also embedded in their minds. It wasn't so long ago that the US semi-let the people there down, suggesting that they'd help but in the end electing not to.

It wasn't the USA who let anyone down, but rather the UN.  The USA had hopes an uprising would succeed but could not intervene because the USA was abiding by international agreements on the fate of Iraq and the signature of cease fire.  But the UN has only ever viewed Iraq as a means to fill its coffers.

[Pepe]

CrowMAW,

Again, your point of view is shortsighted.

You are assessing the situation on the light of the immediate conflict. On the Arab evaluation of US, the issue has not finished. The military face of Iraq battle (not war) appears to be nearly over. But there is the political battle to win. The outcome of this last one will mark at the end the perception of western countries among Arabs. Who, incidentally, are not stupid and can judge by themselves.

On the oil issue, perhaps I might suggest you to find out about the costs of extracting and distributing that crude oil. According to 2.001 OPEC statistic booklet, Iraq accounts for 10'46% proven oil reserves, a total of 112.500 Million Barrells. Assuming a cost of extraction of $2 for all this reserves, which is a very optimistic estimation, forgetting everything about distribution costs, and assuming a price for iraqui crude oil of $20 (iraqi oil quotes a fair 10 to 15% lower than Arabian Light reference, which, too, quotes lower than Brent reference), the total value of Iraq Oil sums up to 2 trillion, roughly talking, in the best possible scenario.

But you have to bear in mind that Iraq's output (2.001 figures) is 2'6 Million barrells per day, which makes up to 950 Million Barrells per year. That would sum up to $17.100 Million per year, which is the money available in terms of Cash-Flow. But this would be if Iraq rigs would be intact, which is not the case. The investments needed to put Iraq potential to work are substantive.

You have to go somewhere deeper in the money issue to make some more credible argument to your Oil War assumption.

I suggest you to deepen more on the analysis, and you will find Iraq's oil, while an important factor in the US stance in Iraq battle is not, can not be, the most important.

[crowMAW]

Originally posted by Pepe

On the oil issue, perhaps I might suggest you to find out about the costs of extracting and distributing that crude oil. According to 2.001 OPEC statistic booklet, Iraq accounts for 10'46% proven oil reserves, a total of 112.500 Million Barrells. Assuming a cost of extraction of $2 for all this reserves, which is a very optimistic estimation, forgetting everything about distribution costs, and assuming a price for iraqui crude oil of $20 (iraqi oil quotes a fair 10 to 15% lower than Arabian Light reference, which, too, quotes lower than Brent reference), the total value of Iraq Oil sums up to 2 trillion, roughly talking, in the best possible scenario.[/b]

You are correct on this...I miss read the data I pulled.  The 360 billion bbls includes estimates for yet unexplored areas of Iraq.  

However, for a country of 22 million with an average annual per capita income of $2700, a $17billion annual budget from oil revenues is outstanding.

From the reports I've seen, less than 20 wells have been damaged, which is a very small percentage.  I would bet that the Iraqi production is no where near capacity even with the damaged wells.

You are assessing the situation on the light of the immediate conflict. On the Arab evaluation of US, the issue has not finished. The military face of Iraq battle (not war) appears to be nearly over. But there is the political battle to win. The outcome of this last one will mark at the end the perception of western countries among Arabs. Who, incidentally, are not stupid and can judge by themselves.

There is an old Arab proverb that roughly translates to: "my bother and I against my cousin; my cousin and I against an outsider."  The US is an outsider to the Arab culture and we have just finished attacking an Arab country.  The polls of Arabs don't lie.  They do indicate that their perception of the US has dropped dramatically in just 6 months.  The Arabs are not stupid, but how they judge the US is based on our actions, of which they apparently severely disapprove.  

But I tell you what...if I'm short sighted then please encourage your country to invade Morocco.  Spain and Morocco have some long standing issues anyway and Morocco's support for terrorist groups is increasing.  So, take on the police role that the US is now maintaining and preemptively invade and install a pro-west democratic government in Morocco for the safety of the world.  It shouldn't cost your country but $15 or $20 billion...just about double your current military expenditures for a year.  Just forgo some social programs, which we Americans forgo, to pay for the increased military spending.  I'm sure the US would be glad to send a couple of hundred special forces to help.