Ok, I have the iddentical joystick, two actually and ended up buying an X45 also. The prob with the MS Prec 2 is for some reason if you keep the stick plugged in for an extended period of time, which I did, it will just lose its connection. I have no idea what the reason is for this but some have told me its due to a small amount of corrosion on the USB plug... Maybe so, in any case, getting back to my story. I was past my warrenty on the first one and could not wait to get the "Broken" one fixed so I just went out and bought another one. Now, all was well and everything was working GREAT then all of the sudden about two weeks later, the dam thing just stopped working again; THE NEW ONE... So I said let me try the old one and maybe it will work. Plugged the dam thing in and BINGO!!! It worked just fine.
I went through all the same things you did, calling MS and all the basic software checks ect. Nothing fixed the prob and nothing was wrong with any one of those issues. If there is any good advise I can give you it would be that when you walk away from the game be it for a night or day or just an hour, unplug the stick and set it to the side. Once you are ready to play again just plug it back in. I can say I havent had this same problem with my X45 but it sure did help me with the MS Prec. 2.
I hope some of this helps you. Trust me its not your stick, your cable, connection, software or anythign of the sort. Its just some weird quwark that is fixed just my simply unplugging the stick and not leaving it plugged in for an extended period of time.
<<>> Jeffer
